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Post by armo21 on Mar 31, 2022 11:06:38 GMT -5
What you say?
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Post by jbuck on Apr 1, 2022 11:15:14 GMT -5
I say not good
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Post by tnredsfan on Apr 2, 2022 14:18:06 GMT -5
I am just not seeing how this team is going to score enough runs to be competitive.
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Post by jbuck on Apr 3, 2022 10:55:32 GMT -5
they must replace 248 RBI with our scrubs and 19 wins by pitchers we lost
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flash
Ted Kluszewski
Posts: 703
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Post by flash on Apr 4, 2022 10:55:39 GMT -5
I think the bullpen is better. Gray and Miley are done. They were fading fast at the end of last year. The staff is young, but ready.
Garcia will be better than Barnhart.
Votto will be better with more rest time with Stephenson's help.
India will be much better.
Farmer will be better this year with constant playing time. There is a lot of minor league compitiion for his back-up
Hopefully Moustakas will pull his weight with Suarez gone. He may be better offensively than Suarez
I would like to see Senzel finally succeed in center. If he gets hurt again the Reds have a lot of back-up in the minors.
Naquin should be a good replacement for Castellanos.
Schrock, Moran, Solano, Pham, and Fraley are solid players.
The team will be faster also. Fraley had as many steals in Spring training as Winker and Castellanos had all last year.
I say 88 wins. Lots of if's
We will learn a lot in the next three weeks after the Reds go up against the Braves and Dodgers away. But I won't give up hope though because the schedule the first two weeks is a beast, and the young team could get much better as the season goes on. Finishing the year with six straight games against the Cubs. Hopefully the reds can send them home for the winter as they butcher them to get into the play-offs.
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Post by vtreds22 on Apr 4, 2022 23:35:25 GMT -5
I am just not seeing how this team is going to score enough runs to be competitive. I think they'll actually score a little. They look to be above average at C, 1B, and 2B. 3B and CF likely average, with CF having the potential to be well above if Senzel can put it all together. LF/RF/DH probably a bit below, and SS probably well below. So in the aggregate, I think they're going to have to close to a league average lineup, assuming Votto stays healthy and India/Stephenson don't have sophomore slumps. They have a couple of decent bench bats for a change. The pitching staff is likely to be terrible, however. Castillo is up and down (and is hurt), Vlad/Sanmartin are just guys, and Minor is washed. I don't think Greene is ready and I think he's likely going to get rocked in the early going. Mahle is dependable, at least. The bullpen is nothing but a whole bunch of questions marks. I've never heard of half the dudes in there. The division is pretty terrible outside of Milwaukee. Vegas has us at 73.5 and that seems about right. I'll say under. I don't think the Reds are done selling. Castillo is as good as gone, and I suspect Mahle isn't far behind. If Pham, Naquin, etc have good first halves they'll likely be dealt also - although the team today isn't good, it's likely going to be worse in August. 69-93. |
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Post by crashdavissports on Apr 5, 2022 7:53:43 GMT -5
I think the bullpen is better. Gray and Miley are done. They were fading fast at the end of last year. The staff is young, but ready. Garcia will be better than Barnhart. Votto will be better with more rest time with Stephenson's help. India will be much better. Farmer will be better this year with constant playing time. There is a lot of minor league compitiion for his back-up Hopefully Moustakas will pull his weight with Suarez gone. He may be better offensively than Suarez I would like to see Senzel finally succeed in center. If he gets hurt again the Reds have a lot of back-up in the minors. Naquin should be a good replacement for Castellanos. Schrock, Moran, Solano, Pham, and Fraley are solid players. The team will be faster also. Fraley had as many steals in Spring training as Winker and Castellanos had all last year. I say 88 wins. Lots of if's We will learn a lot in the next three weeks after the Reds go up against the Braves and Dodgers away. But I won't give up hope though because the schedule the first two weeks is a beast, and the young team could get much better as the season goes on. Finishing the year with six straight games against the Cubs. Hopefully the reds can send them home for the winter as they butcher them to get into the play-offs. I hope you are right man, but it seems to me you are pretty delusional. With so many young guys pitching, you are looking at having to limit innings so now you have to have depth beyond that. This is assuming everyone stays healthy and is able to give you max innings for their career norms. The pitching staff will be junk by the half way point of the season. I think you completely underestimate the value of Winker in our lineup. I do get the argument of he is always hurt, because that is a fact. However, when he was in the lineup, him and Castellanos really protected Votto and allowed Votto to be the player he was last year. Votto will struggle a bit because he will not get crap to hit, so many young guys, India has been around the league now, could go through a sophmore slump after the league has a year of film on his weaknesses until he can adjust. Senzel can be great I think, but I think he is injury prone from the outfield. I think if you want to make sure Senzel maximizes games, you stick him at 3rd where we have an old, over paid player ear marked for. There are some bright futures, but that is more of what they are, futures. |
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Post by scottscudder on Apr 5, 2022 12:11:06 GMT -5
As the only Board member to have predicted the Reds' EXACT win total last year, in the face of nearly overwhelming pessimism, it seems that my opinion should factor heavily in this discussion.  I am excited about this season because 1) I hope to see a player or two have a breakout year, and 2) I think the lineup will be more appropriately built from a defensive perspective (how many DHs, 1B and 3B players can a team carry?). My breakout/career year candidates are Senzel and Naquin. With consistent playing time, I think these guys are talented enough to perform much better than in the past. They have plenty of MLB experience under their belts. And, if healthy, I think they could surprise some folks. It is their time. I'm hopeful that we will see some promising talent show through from Barrero, Greene, and Lodolo. I don't think any of them are ready for MLB yet though. So, they are sure to disappoint those who have unrealistic expectations of them. There of course other great storylines as well. Can Votto continue his resurgence from last year? Will India and Stephenson build upon their success? Can Mahle continue to improve? So, I believe there is plenty of good reason to tune into the Reds this year. There are some compelling stories to be told. That being said, I'm less optimistic than last season about the final win total. Just waaaaayyyyyy too many ifs in this lineup compared to 2021. I selected 76-80 wins. My specific prediction is 76 victories in total. I think they could quite possibly finish the season with less wins (especially if there is a mid-season sell off), but as a Reds fan I am hopeful, so I netted out with 76. |
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Post by armo21 on Apr 5, 2022 18:22:37 GMT -5
As the only Board member to have predicted the Reds' EXACT win total last year, in the face of nearly overwhelming pessimism, it seems that my opinion should factor heavily in this discussion. I am excited about this season because 1) I hope to see a player or two have a breakout year, and 2) I think the lineup will be more appropriately built from a defensive perspective (how many DHs, 1B and 3B players can a team carry?). My breakout/career year candidates are Senzel and Naquin. With consistent playing time, I think these guys are talented enough to perform much better than in the past. They have plenty of MLB experience under their belts. And, if healthy, I think they could surprise some folks. It is their time. I'm hopeful that we will see some promising talent show through from Barrero, Greene, and Lodolo. I don't think any of them are ready for MLB yet though. So, they are sure to disappoint those who have unrealistic expectations of them. There of course other great storylines as well. Can Votto continue his resurgence from last year? Will India and Stephenson build upon their success? Can Mahle continue to improve? So, I believe there is plenty of good reason to tune into the Reds this year. There are some compelling stories to be told. That being said, I'm less optimistic than last season about the final win total. Just waaaaayyyyyy too many ifs in this lineup compared to 2021. I selected 76-80 wins. My specific prediction is 76 victories in total. I think they could quite possibly finish the season with less wins (especially if there is a mid-season sell off), but as a Reds fan I am hopeful, so I netted out with 76. Good prediction on last year. I can't really argue with anyone's line of thinking in this thread. Everyone makes pretty valid points. As much as I enjoyed the first half of last season, it was maddening that the bullpen was so horrific. Winker and Nick C were really good, both All stars and when injuries hit before the All star break, Votto went on the historic Home Run tear. Suarez was abysmal. Senzel getting hurt sucked, but India and Stevenson were awesome rookies. I will not forget Wade was awesome for 4 months and every start seemed like he was going to do something that we had not seen since Tom Browning was here. Castillo was the worst good pitcher in baseball for the first 2 months of the season. Glad they shook up the roster. I did not see Wade or Sonny being good this year. Winker/Suarez trade was a bit of a shock, but could not watch Geno strike out in almost every critical situation again this year. For 2022, I like this team up the middle: Ty Steve, India, Senzel, and Barrero/Farmer. I like the vets in Votto, Moose, Moran, Solano, at the corners, Schrock will get healthy and contribute. The Corner Outfielders in Pham and Naquin/Aquino backed up by Fraley(going to be good) are above average and at GABP this team will score a lot of runs. Pitching: Castillo and Mahle are good TORs and now the kids are question marks. Minor is innings filler. Bullpen is going to be better than the retreads from last year. My head says 76 wins, my heart says 86 wins. |
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Post by armo21 on Apr 6, 2022 22:48:41 GMT -5
they must replace 248 RBI with our scrubs and 19 wins by pitchers we lost I get your point, but I don't think Wade and Sonny combine for 19 wins this year with their new teams. In no way do I think Wade has 12 wins in 2022, he was awful the last 6 weeks of 2021. So they had to churn the rotation. You don't have to squint too hard to see that the rotation could be better than last year. It is going to take more than the 5 pitchers they have to open the season. Sanmartin & Lodolo are pitchers not throwers so I could see both being better than Jeff Hoffman the starter. I expect Mahle to be better at home and improve on his 13-6 record. Castillo was awful in the 1st half and pitched to a 8-16 record which he could very well reverse and be 16-8. Hunter Greene will take some lumps but I think he will produce Sonny's record of 7-9 and a sub 5 ERA. I expect that the starting pitching to be close to what it was last year. And the bullpen to be much better than last year. Yeah they are still young in spots, but many of these guys got to the majors last year and will improve (Moreta, Hendrix, Santillan, Warren) Simms, Cessa, Wilson, Hoffman, Farmer, Strickland are solid vets-no retreads in this group. The biggest question with the pitching in my mind is Lodolo and Greene innings limits. How much can they pitch above last year's total innings. Minor and a healthy Dunn later in the season could be good filler. The 248 RBIs between Nick C., Wink and Suarez I could see coming from: Pham bounce back 140 games 70ish RBI. From 2017-19 he had 73, 63, 68 RBIs. In 2021 I am counting on the GABP bump from 25 doubles and 15 Home Runs he had playing in San Diego. Moose healthy playing 3rd/DH/1st 140 games 80ish RBI (in 2018 he had 95 RBI, 2019 he had 87 RBI, 2020 Covid, 2021 injured) Naquin (127 games 70 RBI in 2021)and platoon partner (Aquino as 5th outfielder on this roster in 2022, he had 23 RBI in 2021) 150 games 95ish RBI. Senzel and Fraley are both going to produce as well IMO. This is probably all wishful thinking but then again, why not try to see where they could look to replace the wins and RBIs. |
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