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Winker
May 22, 2021 13:04:06 GMT -5
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Lark11 likes this
Post by Millennial on May 22, 2021 13:04:06 GMT -5
At what price do you feel comfortable locking winker in at long term, say 6-7 years?
He’s done nothing but rake since getting to the bigs, and he’s showing measurable improvement in power which was always the big question mark on him. His skill set is one that ages well and I wouldn’t hesitate throwing 120M over the next 6 yrs this off-season
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Winker
May 22, 2021 17:22:53 GMT -5
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Post by reds541 on May 22, 2021 17:22:53 GMT -5
At what price do you feel comfortable locking winker in at long term, say 6-7 years? He’s done nothing but rake since getting to the bigs, and he’s showing measurable improvement in power which was always the big question mark on him. His skill set is one that ages well and I wouldn’t hesitate throwing 120M over the next 6 yrs this off-season Our cheap assed owners either won't pay him, or won't bring in anyone to support him.
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Post by kinsm on May 22, 2021 18:47:55 GMT -5
If I were Winker I'd go year to year and then get the hell out of this city.
Unless you think you're going to get a major injury manning LF or the Reds are actually proposing some crazy 200M$ offer there isn't any reason not to go year to year.
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Winker
May 22, 2021 18:51:19 GMT -5
Post by kinsm on May 22, 2021 18:51:19 GMT -5
I should have added my reasoning....he's going to make 5-9M$ this winter via arbitration depending on how the rest of the season plays out and then has one more year after that which his salary will also be decided via arbitration.
Unless he's a complete buffoon with his money 5-9M$ on top of the 5 he's already made has him set for life, no reason to take a low offer with a loser franchise if you believe in your game (which I'm sure he does).
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Winker
May 22, 2021 22:50:58 GMT -5
Post by scottscudder on May 22, 2021 22:50:58 GMT -5
A few years ago, I would have been on board with an extension of Winker such as what has been proposed here. I think he's a great player. I love his approach, and I want to keep him in Cincinnati. Now though, I think otherwise. There's just a lot of risk in a contract like that.
It's time for the Reds to make a strategic pivot.
The Reds need to move toward an approach similar to the Rays, Indians, and A's. This probably means they need to sell high on Winker and others where possible to start loading up the farm system. Instead of investing in Winker, they should use available funds to make whatever offers are needed to poach front office, managerial, scouting, analytical, and development talent from the organizations that have made the "build from within" strategy really work.
It's hard to imagine, but the Reds need a Top 10 (hopefully Top 5) farm system year in and year out from which they can depend on a steady stream of talent. Maybe now and then splurge on bounce back prospects like a Desclafani or a Didi on short term deals. Maybe even splurge at the trade deadline if the team is solidly in contention (but don't trade your top tier prospects!). Really though, that's it. That's all they can do.
I think this is the way.
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Winker
May 23, 2021 10:13:59 GMT -5
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Post by Millennial on May 23, 2021 10:13:59 GMT -5
I should have added my reasoning....he's going to make 5-9M$ this winter via arbitration depending on how the rest of the season plays out and then has one more year after that which his salary will also be decided via arbitration. Unless he's a complete buffoon with his money 5-9M$ on top of the 5 he's already made has him set for life, no reason to take a low offer with a loser franchise if you believe in your game (which I'm sure he does). I agree I highly doubt winker accepts any long term offers unless it’s votto type money AAV. But if you were GM, what would you feel comfortable offering winker in terms of $ amount and years? Also curious if and when castellanos opts out (assuming he doesn’t have a major injury this season) does that motivate the front office to push for a winker extension? Wouldn’t be opposed to throwing more $ at castellanos if he opts out, which the reds won’t do which is a shame because those 2 really may be the best hitting RH/LH combo in the NL
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Winker
May 23, 2021 15:47:22 GMT -5
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Post by vtreds22 on May 23, 2021 15:47:22 GMT -5
Honestly, none of it matters until they have a front office that is more serious about winning than it is pinching pennies.
This offseason was a slap in the face to fans everywhere... yet no one really noticed, or cared. Not sure which.
Extend Winker, trade Winker... whatever. It doesn't matter. If they extend Winker they won't spend the money needed elsewhere to give the team a legit shot at contending on a consistent basis. If they trade him they will likely target more MLB-ready prospects than guys with higher upside, so they can field a team out there on the cheap (but at least they have "upside" to sell to fans).
2024 is the earliest this team will contend again. If then.
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Winker
May 23, 2021 15:56:16 GMT -5
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Post by Millennial on May 23, 2021 15:56:16 GMT -5
Honestly, none of it matters until they have a front office that is more serious about winning than it is pinching pennies. This offseason was a slap in the face to fans everywhere... yet no one really noticed, or cared. Not sure which. Extend Winker, trade Winker... whatever. It doesn't matter. If they extend Winker they won't spend the money needed elsewhere to give the team a legit shot at contending on a consistent basis. If they trade him they will likely target more MLB-ready prospects than guys with higher upside, so they can field a team out there on the cheap (but at least they have "upside" to sell to fans). 2024 is the earliest this team will contend again. If then. You’re not wrong. I understand letting disco and Bauer walk, but to trade away the pieces we did the past few years just to give away 2 anchors in bullpen while still under contract was a slap in the face to fans and players on the reds roster.
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Winker
May 24, 2021 1:08:29 GMT -5
Post by Lark11 on May 24, 2021 1:08:29 GMT -5
At what price do you feel comfortable locking winker in at long term, say 6-7 years? He’s done nothing but rake since getting to the bigs, and he’s showing measurable improvement in power which was always the big question mark on him. His skill set is one that ages well and I wouldn’t hesitate throwing 120M over the next 6 yrs this off-season Well, I'll take a swing at it. I think the obvious answer is that you pay the man, Shirley. Winker is currently hitting .353/.412/.673/1.085. That's a massive performance level that tips over into an absurd performance level when you factor in the current offense-deprived/pitching dominant era. Last time I checked, the league average batting average was .230. Two. Freakin'. Thirty. He's cranking line drives at a 26.5% clip and hitting the ball in the air more than at any other time in his career (1.21 GB/FB). Going off on a tangent for a moment, with all the criticism of the team this year, how about David Bell batting Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos 1st and 2nd? That's a nice slot for our dynamic duo. Anyway, back on topic, Winker is only 27 years and 9 months old. That's the type of player you lock up, there's basically no scenario wherein it makes sense to trade or cut ties with Winker. It's not like the Reds are locked into a lot of bad contracts. Castellanos is making $14M this year, $16M in 2022, $16M in 2023, and $20M mutual option in 2024. Of course, he's got an opt-out after 2021 season. Similar story with Moustakas, $14M in 2021, $16M in 2022, $18M in 2023, and $20M club option in 2024. Suarez is making $10.5M this year, $11M in 2022, $11M in 2023, $11M in 2024, and $15M club option for 2025. (It's a damn shame that Suarez has turned into a pumpkin, because his contract should be a massive win for the Reds.) So, the Reds *should* have room to lock up Winker. I don't know what the right number is for his AAV. Francisco Lindor just signed an extension that pays him $32M annually. Trout is making $35.45M annually. So, that's the top end. Obviously, Winker doesn't bring the same total production/value to the table that Lindor and Trout do. Winker plays a defense position that is lower on the defense spectrum and plays it relatively poorly or at least at a below average level, so that's a drag on his value. Does it mitigate some of the drag on his value that the NL is likely to adopt the DH in the near future? Maybe so. But, the primary consideration is that the hardest thing to find in MLB right now is impact hitting. Maybe in order to hit the absurd velocity and obscene breaking balls, you need to have plus pitch recognition and plate discipline like Winker does. In short, hitters like Winker don't grow on trees and the notion that we can give him up and just draft/develop more is dubious, at best. By my count, Winker had 3.080 seasons of service time prior to the 2021 season. So, I believe he has two seasons of arbitration left. He's making only $3.15M in 2021. So, I'm assuming we are talking about buying him out of his two final years of arbitration with a deal in the upcoming offseason. Obviously, the type of money he would ask for and receive in his second arbitration-eligible season would depend on his performance the remainder of 2021. So, could you buy out his second and third arbitration seasons for $8-9M and $15M, respectively? In a vacuum, I would have no problem with a 7-year deal for $140M, which gives an AAV of $20M. But, since we are talking about buying out two years of arbitration as part of that 7-year deal, which would take him through his age 35 season and limit the risk from the downslope of his career, we are going to get some under-market value for his final two arbitration seasons. Further, there may be an opportunity to leverage the fact that Winker hasn't had, prior to (and maybe including) this season, a full season of this performance level. Maybe you can get his final two arbitration seasons at $8-9M and $15M respectively and shave a few bucks off his first free agency season for some performance risk. Add in a dash of saber-rattling about the negative financial impact of the pandemic, yada yada yada. So, maybe I'd shoot for 7-years at $124M.
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Winker
May 24, 2021 9:26:23 GMT -5
Post by donho97 on May 24, 2021 9:26:23 GMT -5
No way do I commit $20M for multiple years to him. The far smarter thing would be to sell him at his all-time high right now. You might be able to get Jasson Dominguez from the Yankees for him considering how hurting their OF is right now. I would also think of getting a stud SS prospect like CJ Abrams from the Padres who could also use him. Mets could also be a trade partner with Pillar injured and Conforto and Dom Smith shitting the bed this year. You could probably get Pete Crow Armstrong or Ronny Maurisco and JT Ginn for Winker or Castellanos.
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Winker
May 24, 2021 11:03:43 GMT -5
Post by jbuck on May 24, 2021 11:03:43 GMT -5
should be batting 3rd. with that BA and power. we don't have a 1 or 2 batter. gawd damn bunch of 2nd basemen is what we are. India, swarez, senzal. musakis.
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Winker
May 24, 2021 16:32:41 GMT -5
Post by Lark11 on May 24, 2021 16:32:41 GMT -5
No way do I commit $20M for multiple years to him. The far smarter thing would be to sell him at his all-time high right now. You might be able to get Jasson Dominguez from the Yankees for him considering how hurting their OF is right now. I would also think of getting a stud SS prospect like CJ Abrams from the Padres who could also use him. Mets could also be a trade partner with Pillar injured and Conforto and Dom Smith shitting the bed this year. You could probably get Pete Crow Armstrong or Ronny Maurisco and JT Ginn for Winker or Castellanos. I don't know why we would move him in exchange for prospects who, if they avoid all the pitfalls of player development, *might* max out at the performance level Winker is currently providing. Fortunately, the Reds can mitigate some of the risk resulting from Winker's small track record of performing at this level by going to arbitration for 2022 and locking him up long-term in mid 2022 or the following offseason. That said, with greater certainty can come greater cost. It's the short track record of elite performance that would make him affordable and keepable now and prior to 2022. Waiting increase certainty, which minimizes downside risk but potentially increases cost.
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Winker
May 24, 2021 17:50:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Millennial on May 24, 2021 17:50:29 GMT -5
At what price do you feel comfortable locking winker in at long term, say 6-7 years? He’s done nothing but rake since getting to the bigs, and he’s showing measurable improvement in power which was always the big question mark on him. His skill set is one that ages well and I wouldn’t hesitate throwing 120M over the next 6 yrs this off-season Well, I'll take a swing at it. I think the obvious answer is that you pay the man, Shirley. Winker is currently hitting .353/.412/.673/1.085. That's a massive performance level that tips over into an absurd performance level when you factor in the current offense-deprived/pitching dominant era. Last time I checked, the league average batting average was .230. Two. Freakin'. Thirty. He's cranking line drives at a 26.5% clip and hitting the ball in the air more than at any other time in his career (1.21 GB/FB). Going off on a tangent for a moment, with all the criticism of the team this year, how about David Bell batting Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos 1st and 2nd? That's a nice slot for our dynamic duo. Anyway, back on topic, Winker is only 27 years and 9 months old. That's the type of player you lock up, there's basically no scenario wherein it makes sense to trade or cut ties with Winker. It's not like the Reds are locked into a lot of bad contracts. Castellanos is making $14M this year, $16M in 2022, $16M in 2023, and $20M mutual option in 2024. Of course, he's got an opt-out after 2021 season. Similar story with Moustakas, $14M in 2021, $16M in 2022, $18M in 2023, and $20M club option in 2024. Suarez is making $10.5M this year, $11M in 2022, $11M in 2023, $11M in 2024, and $15M club option for 2025. (It's a damn shame that Suarez has turned into a pumpkin, because his contract should be a massive win for the Reds.) So, the Reds *should* have room to lock up Winker. I don't know what the right number is for his AAV. Francisco Lindor just signed an extension that pays him $32M annually. Trout is making $35.45M annually. So, that's the top end. Obviously, Winker doesn't bring the same total production/value to the table that Lindor and Trout do. Winker plays a defense position that is lower on the defense spectrum and plays it relatively poorly or at least at a below average level, so that's a drag on his value. Does it mitigate some of the drag on his value that the NL is likely to adopt the DH in the near future? Maybe so. But, the primary consideration is that the hardest thing to find in MLB right now is impact hitting. Maybe in order to hit the absurd velocity and obscene breaking balls, you need to have plus pitch recognition and plate discipline like Winker does. In short, hitters like Winker don't grow on trees and the notion that we can give him up and just draft/develop more is dubious, at best. By my count, Winker had 3.080 seasons of service time prior to the 2021 season. So, I believe he has two seasons of arbitration left. He's making only $3.15M in 2021. So, I'm assuming we are talking about buying him out of his two final years of arbitration with a deal in the upcoming offseason. Obviously, the type of money he would ask for and receive in his second arbitration-eligible season would depend on his performance the remainder of 2021. So, could you buy out his second and third arbitration seasons for $8-9M and $15M, respectively? In a vacuum, I would have no problem with a 7-year deal for $140M, which gives an AAV of $20M. But, since we are talking about buying out two years of arbitration as part of that 7-year deal, which would take him through his age 35 season and limit the risk from the downslope of his career, we are going to get some under-market value for his final two arbitration seasons. Further, there may be an opportunity to leverage the fact that Winker hasn't had, prior to (and maybe including) this season, a full season of this performance level. Maybe you can get his final two arbitration seasons at $8-9M and $15M respectively and shave a few bucks off his first free agency season for some performance risk. Add in a dash of saber-rattling about the negative financial impact of the pandemic, yada yada yada. So, maybe I'd shoot for 7-years at $124M. I’m surprised the lineup order hasn’t been discussed more. We have two players who are sitting over 1.085 OPS and they statistically lead off the inning at a higher % of the time than if they anywhere else in the lineup. Meanwhile our #3 and #4 spots in lineup on the season have combined OPS of .753 and .658 on the season. The #8 hole hitter does has highest OBP besides those two which provides a little more rationale behind the move... if you have a DH. Plug shogo in to the 9 hole and it would actually make a lot of sense. But instead we have pitchers spot that ends aprox 1/3 of innings for atleast 4-6 innings the majority of games. This move may convince me he’s incompetent if he continues to knowingly put the 2 hottest hitters in MLB so far this year in position where they receive the least amount of RISP opportunitiy
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Winker
May 25, 2021 0:11:57 GMT -5
Post by Lark11 on May 25, 2021 0:11:57 GMT -5
Well, I'll take a swing at it. I think the obvious answer is that you pay the man, Shirley. Winker is currently hitting .353/.412/.673/1.085. That's a massive performance level that tips over into an absurd performance level when you factor in the current offense-deprived/pitching dominant era. Last time I checked, the league average batting average was .230. Two. Freakin'. Thirty. He's cranking line drives at a 26.5% clip and hitting the ball in the air more than at any other time in his career (1.21 GB/FB). Going off on a tangent for a moment, with all the criticism of the team this year, how about David Bell batting Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos 1st and 2nd? That's a nice slot for our dynamic duo. Anyway, back on topic, Winker is only 27 years and 9 months old. That's the type of player you lock up, there's basically no scenario wherein it makes sense to trade or cut ties with Winker. It's not like the Reds are locked into a lot of bad contracts. Castellanos is making $14M this year, $16M in 2022, $16M in 2023, and $20M mutual option in 2024. Of course, he's got an opt-out after 2021 season. Similar story with Moustakas, $14M in 2021, $16M in 2022, $18M in 2023, and $20M club option in 2024. Suarez is making $10.5M this year, $11M in 2022, $11M in 2023, $11M in 2024, and $15M club option for 2025. (It's a damn shame that Suarez has turned into a pumpkin, because his contract should be a massive win for the Reds.) So, the Reds *should* have room to lock up Winker. I don't know what the right number is for his AAV. Francisco Lindor just signed an extension that pays him $32M annually. Trout is making $35.45M annually. So, that's the top end. Obviously, Winker doesn't bring the same total production/value to the table that Lindor and Trout do. Winker plays a defense position that is lower on the defense spectrum and plays it relatively poorly or at least at a below average level, so that's a drag on his value. Does it mitigate some of the drag on his value that the NL is likely to adopt the DH in the near future? Maybe so. But, the primary consideration is that the hardest thing to find in MLB right now is impact hitting. Maybe in order to hit the absurd velocity and obscene breaking balls, you need to have plus pitch recognition and plate discipline like Winker does. In short, hitters like Winker don't grow on trees and the notion that we can give him up and just draft/develop more is dubious, at best. By my count, Winker had 3.080 seasons of service time prior to the 2021 season. So, I believe he has two seasons of arbitration left. He's making only $3.15M in 2021. So, I'm assuming we are talking about buying him out of his two final years of arbitration with a deal in the upcoming offseason. Obviously, the type of money he would ask for and receive in his second arbitration-eligible season would depend on his performance the remainder of 2021. So, could you buy out his second and third arbitration seasons for $8-9M and $15M, respectively? In a vacuum, I would have no problem with a 7-year deal for $140M, which gives an AAV of $20M. But, since we are talking about buying out two years of arbitration as part of that 7-year deal, which would take him through his age 35 season and limit the risk from the downslope of his career, we are going to get some under-market value for his final two arbitration seasons. Further, there may be an opportunity to leverage the fact that Winker hasn't had, prior to (and maybe including) this season, a full season of this performance level. Maybe you can get his final two arbitration seasons at $8-9M and $15M respectively and shave a few bucks off his first free agency season for some performance risk. Add in a dash of saber-rattling about the negative financial impact of the pandemic, yada yada yada. So, maybe I'd shoot for 7-years at $124M. I’m surprised the lineup order hasn’t been discussed more. We have two players who are sitting over 1.085 OPS and they statistically lead off the inning at a higher % of the time than if they anywhere else in the lineup. Meanwhile our #3 and #4 spots in lineup on the season have combined OPS of .753 and .658 on the season. The #8 hole hitter does has highest OBP besides those two which provides a little more rationale behind the move... if you have a DH. Plug shogo in to the 9 hole and it would actually make a lot of sense. But instead we have pitchers spot that ends aprox 1/3 of innings for atleast 4-6 innings the majority of games. This move may convince me he’s incompetent if he continues to knowingly put the 2 hottest hitters in MLB so far this year in position where they receive the least amount of RISP opportunitiy Hmmm. I don't know. I, too, was surprised that the lineup construction isn't more heavily discussed on here, but I pointed it out as something of a positive. The analytics of recent vintage established that the 2nd spot in the order is the best slot for your best hitter. So, Bell has one of his two best in the proper slot. Also, tough to say that Castellanos doesn't get enough RISP opportunities when he's hitting behind Winker, who reaches base 41% of the time. Also, the clear benefit of batting Winker/Castellanos one and two in the order is that they get the most plate appearances on the roster. Quite obviously, you want your best hitters to get the most opportunities. So, I like having them back-to-back, as elite hitters and opposite-hand hitters, and at the very top of the order. If they aren't getting enough opportunities with ducks on the pond, I think that speaks more to the other hitters in the lineup not carrying their weight than it does to Bell's lineup construction.
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Winker
May 25, 2021 9:24:15 GMT -5
Post by donho97 on May 25, 2021 9:24:15 GMT -5
No way do I commit $20M for multiple years to him. The far smarter thing would be to sell him at his all-time high right now. You might be able to get Jasson Dominguez from the Yankees for him considering how hurting their OF is right now. I would also think of getting a stud SS prospect like CJ Abrams from the Padres who could also use him. Mets could also be a trade partner with Pillar injured and Conforto and Dom Smith shitting the bed this year. You could probably get Pete Crow Armstrong or Ronny Maurisco and JT Ginn for Winker or Castellanos. I don't know why we would move him in exchange for prospects who, if they avoid all the pitfalls of player development, *might* max out at the performance level Winker is currently providing. Fortunately, the Reds can mitigate some of the risk resulting from Winker's small track record of performing at this level by going to arbitration for 2022 and locking him up long-term in mid 2022 or the following offseason. That said, with greater certainty can come greater cost. It's the short track record of elite performance that would make him affordable and keepable now and prior to 2022. Waiting increase certainty, which minimizes downside risk but potentially increases cost. Because we aren't going to win the next couple years and Bob C won't spend anymore...we will be in rebuild mode in a week or two IMO.
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