Draft Thoughts

[Lark11]

Nick Madrigal, 2b
Oregon State University
5-8, 165 lbs
B/T: R/R
Class: Junior


When ramping up for the draft and doing the deep dive into the draft eligible prospects, Nick Madrigal was the one I wanted to tackle first. By all accounts, he's a lock to go in the top 5 picks and a very real possibility for the Reds at 1.5.

In years gone by, Madrigal would have largely been ignored, or at least massively downgraded, because he's both short (5-8) and plays second base. Previously, second basemen were rarely drafted, as organizations would simply draft shortstops and shift those who didn't pan out over to second base in the professional ranks. As a result, prospects with Madrigal's profile wouldn't have gotten a sniff in the early rounds. Now, however, in the age of enlightenment (sort of), Madrigal is in play.

It's difficult to know which has done more to pave the way for Nick Madrigal, the explosion of data or the otherworldly ability of Jose Altuve. Data operates to provide a clear-eyed view of prospects of this profile, while the Lilliputian Altuve encourages everyone to dream and squint hard enough to see impact talent in even the shortest of prospects.

With that bit of context, let's get back to Nick Madrigal.

Madrigal's standout ability is his bat-to-ball skill. His contact rate is plus and he consistently gets the barrel of the bat on the ball. In the modern game, where strikeouts have exploded, Madrigal's contact skills are highly desirable.

In addition to his contact rate, Madrigal brings respectable power. He uses a set of swing mechanics that will be familiar to anyone who has seen the new "elevate and celebrate" swing that is sweeping the majors, which can also be seen in his "between pitch" practice swing, which is a half-swing that finishes straight up. To me, Madrigal's bat tip and leg kick during the load phase bear a striking resemblance to those of Seattle Mariner Mitch Haniger.

That said, while he may "load" like Haniger, he doesn't transfer as much force to the baseball as Haniger. Here's a look at Madrigal at the dish:



In the games that I watched Madrigal plate, he didn't look great at the plate. He wasn't making loud contact, but rather rolled over a few pitches for ground outs. In addition. he had several check-swings on breaking pitches off the plate, which might speak to him not seeing the ball well or being overly aggressive.

Here's how Madrigal has performed in his three seasons at Oregon State:

2016: .333/.380/.456/.836 with 6.7% BB% and 6.3% K%
2017: .380/.449/.532/.981 with 9.6% BB% and 5.67% K%
2018: .435/.496/.620/1.116 with 8.9% BB% and 3.25% K%

Two points worth noting about his 2018 season: First, he only has 108 ABs due to a broken left wrist he suffered while sliding into home. Second, in those 108 ABs, he has only struck out a remarkable 4 times!

Obviously, his low strikeout rate is attributable to his bat-to-ball skills, but he's also an aggressive hitter who doesn't consistently work into late-counts. That type of aggressive approach pairs nicely with his hit tool and limits strikeouts, but it also suppresses his walk rate.

On the defensive side, Madrigal has a very good defensive reputation. In the games I saw, he looked solid. He's not fluid in the Javy Baez sense, but not many are. The one aspect of his defense that caught my eye was his throws. On routine ground balls, he had a tendency to flip the ball over to first base. He ramped up the throws when turning double plays, but his arm strength wasn't overly strong, which calls into question any notion of switching him to the left side of second base in the professional ranks.

Overall, Madrigal has a very strong hit tool and a decent amount of power despite his smaller frame. However, his hit tool is his main value-driver on offense, as his aggressive approach doesn't lend itself to high walk rates, he's not a speed burner on the bases, and his power projection remains an open question.

Consequently, there is a lot of pressure on his hit tool to carry him to the majors. Fortunately, it's likely more than good enough to do just that, giving him one of the higher floors in the draft class. In the era of high strikeouts, massive velocity, and ungodly breaking stuff, a hitter with a plus hit tool is never a bad option and he's certainly in the mix for the Reds with their first round pick.

[Lark11]

Jonathan India, 3b
University of Florida
6-0, 200 lbs
B/T: R/R
Class: Junior

Jonathan India is one of the fastest and highest risers in the 2018 draft class. He certainly had solid freshman and sophomore seasons for the University of Florida, but his explosive junior season has landed him near the top of MLB draft boards. He should certainly be in the mix for the Reds with the 5th overall pick.

India's sophomore season was actually a bit of a step backwards, as his offensive performance level declined from his freshman year level. A portion of that decline was likely related to an elbow injury that cost him a few weeks of the season. However, he is fully healthy in 2018 and has parlayed his experience into a a stronger mental attitude developed with the help of assistant coach Brad Weitzel.

Here's a look at India's stats for his three collegiate seasons:

2016: .303/.367/.440/.807; 8.3% BB%; 16.3% K%; 16/2/4 in doubles/triples/homers
2017: .274/.354/.429/.783; 9.2% BB%; 16.7% K%; 15/0/6 in doubles/triples/homers
2018: .362/.502/.723/1.225; 18.9% BB%; 18.9% K%; 11/3/17 in doubles/triples/homers

The obvious differences between his junior season and those that came before are his spiking walk rate and power production. He has emerged as an impact hitter. India has managed to more than double his walk rate with a minimal increase in strikeouts. Obviously, he's being more selective at the plate and grinding away at ABs until he gets pitches he likes, which leads to increased power production.

India has an above average hit tool, controls the strike zone very well, and has a new found power stroke. Here's a look at him in action at the plate, courtesy of 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:



He loads well into his back hip and really marries the rotation of his upper body to that of his lower half, which generates significant force in the swing. While he does not have Nick Madrigal's contact ability, India has a strong feel for hitting and generates more power than Madrigal. India uses a bat-tip as part of his load, which removes slack from his muscles and increases the amount of force that he generates. Overall, India has a balanced, powerful swing that he pairs with a strong feel to hit.

In addition to his offensive ability, India is a very strong defensive third baseman. Here's a look at India flashing the leather, courtesy of Florida Gators on YouTube:



There are a lot of impressive aspects of the above play, including the full extension, how quick he is to get to his feet, and the clear arm strength on display. India's defensive tools make him a potentially viable option at either second base or shortstop. In fact, India himself still sees himself as a shortstop, though he has been exclusively playing third base for the Gators. Consequently, there is a real chance that he could be moved up the defensive spectrum to a middle infield position, which would only increase his value. At the very least, it's something that could (and likely will) be tried in the professional ranks.

India offers a diversified set of value-drivers, including hitting, defense, positional value, arm strength and strong baserunning ability. Not to mention, he has a strong track record, including one season of elite performance, against the highest level of collegiate competition. In light of the foregoing, he should very much be in the mix for the Reds at pick number 5.

[Lark11]

Alec Bohm, 3b
Wichita State
Height/Weight: 6-5, 240 lbs
B/T: R/R
Class: Junior

Alec Bohm (pronounced: Bow-hm) is a third baseman for the Wichita State Shockers and a likely top 10 pick in the 2018. In fact, he's a likely top 5 pick. Bohm's collegiate career hasn't been one of breakouts and rapid rises up the draft, rather his has been a tale of steady progression and improvement.

Bohm has a very large physical frame, but is a good athlete for his size and he moves well. However, he has had to work hard to improve his third base defense, which is solid but lacks range and quickness. He does offer a strong arm, but his main value-drivers will always lie in the hit tool and power production. Above all else, Bohm is a hitter and an impressive one at that.

Here is how Bohm performed over his three seasons at Wichita State:

2016: .303/.346/.489/.835; 4.7% BB%; 13.1% K%; 13/1/6 doubles/triples/homers
2017: .305/.385/.519/.904; 10.9% BB%; 11.7% K%; 13/2/11 doubles/triples/homers
2018: .339/.436/.625/1.061; 14.7% BB%; 10.5% K%; 14/1/16 doubles/triples/homers


Despite being a tall hitter (6-5) and the special challenges that can bring (larger strikezone to protect, longer levers to control during the swing, etc), Bohm has consistently maintained strong strikeout rates. In fact, as a junior, he walked more than he whiffed, which is an impressive feat for such a tall hitter. Bohm has a real feel to hit and generates easy power.

Bohm hits for average, uses a disciplined approach to draw a goodly number of walks, limits his strikeouts, and hits for tremendous power. He's a well-rounded hitter with less than expected performance-risk for a hitter his size.

Bohm has also had success with wood bats in the summer Cape Cod League, where he hit .351 (2nd overall) with 10 doubles (third overall) and 5 home runs (10th overall) for the Falmouth Commodores. His strong production with wood bats undoubtedly gives the MLB scouting directors an added layer of comfort with his level of performance-risk, as he's clearly not just a metal bat creation.

Here's a look at him in action, courtesy of Fangraphs on YouTube:



It's a well-balanced swing that generates a substantial amount of force, which he can frequently impart to the baseball due to his solid contact rate. He does a very nice job of loading into the back hip, as he sets his back hip angled toward the pitcher, resulting in the momentum immediately springing forward after he shifts the weight back. It launches the body forward, generating significant force. He also does a nice job of dropping his back elbow down into the slot, effectively syncing the rotation of the top half with the rotation of the bottom half, which allows him to generate easy power.

Overall, it's a beautiful swing for a right-handed hitter; fluid, powerful, and balanced. When coupled with his strong walk/strikeout rates and his longer levers, it's easy to imagine him being an impact hitter at the big league level. With respect to his larger physical stature, he seems to have figured out how to maximize the positives (longer levers; easier power generation), while minimize the negatives (larger strikezone to cover; longer levers to manage), which is fairly impressive in and of itself.

As for the defense, you can see that he's light on his feet, shows good agility, and a strong arm. He's also comfortable throwing from multiple arm slots. As he continues to fill out physically, he might need to shift over to first base, but for now he certainly has the physical tools needed to adequately handle the hot corner.

Bohm has a strong present performance level, but it feels like there's remaining projection to his game. It feels like he still has room to improve, which makes him an intriguing mix of projected floor and projected ceiling. He should definitely be in the mix for the Reds at pick 5, though there's a good chance he'll already have had his named called by then.

[Lark11]

Casey Mize - RHP
Auburn University
Junior
6-3; 190 lbs


Casey Mize is the better pitching prospect in this draft class and is an extreme long shot to be available at pick 1.5. He checks all the boxes: stuff, production, mechanics, and size.

Here's a look at him courtesy of 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:




Frankly, it'll be a surprise if he isn't taken at pick 1.1. There's a whole lot to like about Casey Mize and if it's a pitching prospect you want, then he's your guy.

I'll just leave this final note here: In 102.2 innings this year, Mize has walked 10 and struck out 140!



Brady Singer - RHP
University of Florida
Junior
6-5; 180 lbs


Overall, I'm not seeing Singer as a viable option at pick 1.5. The combination of stuff, mechanics, and delivery tempo just don't have me seeing impact starting pitcher at the MLB level.

He features a 3-pitch mix, including fastball that sits 91/92/93 with some arm-side run and sink, a solid slider that can flash plus, and a work-in-progress changeup.

Here's a look at Singer in action, courtesy of 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:



Overall, he has clean mechanics with no obvious red flags. However, he could more effectively tap into the kinetic chain in generating force, which would reduce stress on the arm and make the generation of force more efficient.

Further, the low three-quarter arm slot is potentially problematic for a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers can work successfully from that slot, but I'm not convinced that Singer is the one to bet on. This is a pass for me at pick 1.5.


Carter Stewart - RHP
Eau Gallie High School; Melbourne, Florida
Junior
6-6; 200 lbs

Keith Law has Stewart as the number 2 player on his top 100, while MLB.com slots him in at number 5.

He features a fastball, curveball, and changeup, with the first two grading out as true plus pitches. His fastball sits, depending on the day, 92-94, but has touched the upper 90s and there is obviously significant physical projection left to his game. His curveball has massive spin rate, among the highest ever recorded. So, we're talking about two potential plus pitches with a still developing changeup. Obviously, the upside is considerable, but the risk is substantial. Stewart provides a much wider range of possible career outcomes than many of the other prospects in the mix for the Reds. He could go boom, he could go bust.

Here's a look at him in action, courtesy of JT Baseball Scouting on YouTube:



The initial impression of Stewart's mechanics is one of looseness. He has long levers, his arm action is free-and-easy, and there is some overall inconsistency in his mechanics. He's just loose. On the plus side, he has a clean arm action and generates a lot of force with a very high leg kick and a long stride towards the plate, though he could certainly benefit from greater differential between the rotation of the hips and the rotation of the shoulders. Overall, he seems like a live-armed youngster who could use some real development and refinement to reach his ceiling, but there's a significant amount of risk to that profile and the Reds have a poor track record of developing starting pitchers. So, are they the organization to draft and develop Carter Stewart?

Stewart has a very wide range between his floor and ceiling. Even given the risk, it would be rather interesting to have both Carter Stewart and Hunter Greene in the same organization.


Matthew Liberatore - LHP
Mountain Ridge (Ariz.) High School
6-5; 200 lbs

Liberatore is a pitcher in a draft loaded with throwers. He doesn't have the overwhelming velocity, but he has a 4-pitch mix. His fastball sits 90-92, but there's room for velocity gains as he fills out physically. He also features a curveball, slider, and changeup. In addition, he has good command and control and an understanding of how to pitch.

As for his pitching mechanics, he has very clean, fundamentally sound mechanics. Here's a look at Liberatore, courtesy of FanGraphs on YouTube:



Overall, Liberatore has a nice blend of stuff and polish. His combination of ceiling and floor should make him a top 10, if not top 5 pick.

[Lark11]

Post First Round Options


Unfortunately, the Reds do not have either a Compensation Round pick or a Competitive Balance Round A pick, so their second pick is in the second round, pick #47 overall.

There are a few names worth considering, if they'll only slide that far.


Seth Beer - 1b/OF
University of Clemson
Junior
6-2; 195 lbs

Beer exploded into the collective baseball conscience during his freshman season, wherein he raked to the tune of .369/.535/.700/1.235. His follows up efforts were slightly less impressive (realistically, how could they not be?) than his freshman season, but Beer can really hit. Here are his collegiate numbers:

2016: .369/.535/.700/1.235 with 21.8% BB%, 9.5% K%, and 18 homers
2017: .298/.478/.606/1.084 with 21.4% BB%, 11.7% K%, and 16 homers
2018: .316/.471/.656/1.127 with 18.8% BB%, 11.2% K%, and 20 homers

Fortunately for us, he lacks defensive value and speed, so he may slide down to the 47th overall pick. MLB.com rates him as the 46th best prospect, while Keith Law rates him at 31st overall. Unfortunately, I think his profile is too high to slide that far, but you never know.

Here's a look at Beer in action, courtesy 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:



If Beer is on the board at pick 47, he'd better be on the short list for the Reds.



Griffin Conine - OF
Duke University
Junior
6-1; 195 lbs

Conine is the son of Jeff Conine, who had a lengthy MLB career. The son is an outfielder with Duke who possesses prodigious power. Like Beer, he's largely a bat-first player, who will go as far as the lumber takes him.

Conine has a swing that generates a tremendous amount of force. Prior to the season, he was a trendy choice for being drafted among the top 15 picks in this draft. However, he struggled early in the season and, as a result, has slide down the rankings. MLB.com rates him at 51st overall, while Keith Law slots him in at 50th. There's a reasonable chance that he'll be available when the Reds select at 47.

His collegiate track record is less impressive than Beer, but he still has good production. Here's a look at his three seasons at Duke:

2016: .205/.306/.247/.553 with 12.9% BB%, 18.8% K%, and 0 homers
2017: .298/.425/.546/.971 with 15.3% BB%, 16.8% K%, and 13 homers
2018: .277/.402/.585/.987 with 15.5% BB%, 25.5% K%, and 15 homers

If Conine had taken an additional step forward in 2018, he'd be in line for a substantial bonus, but now he'll settle for less in the compensation rounds or the 2nd round.

Here's a look at Conine in action, courtesy of 20-80 Baseball on YouTube:



While his offensive production is less consistent and impressive than Beer, he provides more value on defense. He's a legitimate corner outfield option with a strong arm. So, while his offense is less likely to exclusively carry him to the majors, he has a more diversified set of value-drivers.

Conine is an intriguing option and one the Reds should heavily consider with pick 47.


Garrett McDaniels - LHP
Pee Dee (S.C.) Academy
6-2; 170 lbs


McDaniels is a projectable lefty featuring a 3-pitch mix, including a fastball, curveball, and changeup. His fastball only sits in the upper 80s, but he has projection to his game and he could add velocity as he fills out. He has a good feel for pitching and good athleticism.

He has very clean mechanics, good tempo, and a repeatable delivery. Here's a look at McDaniels in action, courtesy of Perfect Game Baseball:



McDaniels is very fundamentally sound, but he'll need to improve his offerings in the professional ranks. Still, the raw materials are there and he has the type of foundation on which you can build.