Hunter Greene Signing?

[Lark11]

I'm surprised people aren't getting anxious.

Personally, I'd be very, very surprised if he doesn't sign on the line which is dotted. At the same time, I wouldn't be crushed if he doesn't.

Two high picks in next year's draft would be interesting and, given our organization's struggles to develop starting pitching, maybe preferable. College prospects who are farther along the development path might be a better fit for our organization. Hell, if we were to draft two polished college bats in next year's draft, they'd probably arrive in the bigs before Greene anyway.

[The Duke]

I'm still pretty sure he'll sign. Jim Callis still thinks it's 100% he'll sign and this is just to bleed every last dollar he can get out of the contract. Can't really blame the kid for getting what he can get, when the only real cost is a little bit of anxiety for us.

[crashdavissports]

Besides, being the fact he is 17 and throws as much as 102mph, he is bound to throw his arm out and need TJS at some point. Get as much as he can now, because he may not make it to the bigs if his arm doesn't hold up under increased number of innings in the minors. I know they will build him up in innings, just scary to think about when he is so young and throws so hard.

However, on the plus side, he doesn't LOOK like a max effort pitcher, which could indicate he just has overall better mechanics and may not be as susceptible to blowing out an arm. If he can learn to sit in the mid 90's, not look like max effort, and develop 4 solid pitches, he will be a gem.

I hope he signs, because I doubt we have a chance at a player this good in next years draft. He is a hell of a hitter too, and as a NL team, it would be nice to not have a hole in the lineup at #9 every 5th day.

[The Duke]

I'll say this because every one seems to get hung up on the 102 number. He did that once. Maybe a couple other times in the bullpen. He generally sits 95-97 as a non max effort thrower. He has shown the ability to reach back and get 102, but he's not throwing as hard as he can every pitch.

[schellis]

Jul 7, 2017 12:41:50 GMT -5 The Duke said:

I'll say this because every one seems to get hung up on the 102 number. He did that once. Maybe a couple other times in the bullpen. He generally sits 95-97 as a non max effort thrower. He has shown the ability to reach back and get 102, but he's not throwing as hard as he can every pitch.

Yeah I'd avoid max effort guys especially high school arms. They will break sooner rather then later. If you can work at 92 and jump up to high 90's when you need to you'll go both deeper into games and stay on the field. Look at the guys who have been successful and got into the hall. Outside of Johnson, most have been control vary speeds.

[Lark11]

Reds sign Greene for $7.23m.

[redsfanman]

Anxious? Clearly you weren't on twitter.

It seemed obvious all along that he'd end up signing - so much risk if he didn't, with so very little to gain.  A year of his career at stake, over about $200,000 or less, when even by the JUCO route he'd reenter the draft with the same $7.05m draft record standing.  His reputation for maturity damaged.  Every credible person seemed certain he'd end up signing.  Once it came down to the final day, final hour, it didn't seem surprising at all to see it come down to the last minute.  That's just how negotiations and deadlines often go.

By holding out Greene gained between $0 and $200,000.  I'd say it went fine, despite the heartache it gave to Reds twitter.

The next deadline is the upcoming trade deadline, which no doubt will have lots of moves waiting for the final hour like always.

[redskoolaiddrinker]

Since there was no time left to sign anyone, would it have been insane for the Reds to have signed one more overslot guy (if they had agreed to a deal) and tell Greene "here's all we got left before losing a pick and we're not going to do that. You will still be the highest paid guy in the draft."

[redsfanman]

I'd argue that that situation, although intriguing, would be a public relations disaster, playing into the notion that they were trying to trick, cheat, or manipulate Greene into something.  That they were being really cheap, trying to short change their elite talent.  Their best defense if he didn't sign (which was never likely) was the fact they'd offered him so much cash - a record amount.  Anything less than McKay's $7.05m would've cost them that argument.  It didn't make sense for Greene to put off signing because (at best) he'd likely get around slot value next time, too - trying to short change him would create an incentive to avoid signing that didn't already exist.

I doubt anybody willing to sign for $225,000 (difference between McKay and Greene) would've excited many people.

Money to sign RHP Tommy Mace or SS Brady McConnell (who I don't think anyone ever thought would sign for any price) might have been an exciting baseball move, but it'd become a disaster especially if they lost Greene and his ~$7m slot value from the pool.  Not just a disaster, it'd become a catastrophe, pushing them into those pick-losing penalties that no team has yet faced while still losing their first round pick in the process.  In the end the Reds gave Greene reasons to sign, and no reasons to consider not to.


I was hoping he'd sign for $7.1m and they'd use the scraps to sign an irrelevant later pick, like one of the guys from Cincinnati, but not a big deal.

[redskoolaiddrinker]

Jul 7, 2017 21:05:00 GMT -5 redsfanman said:

I'd argue that that situation, although intriguing, would be a public relations disaster, playing into the notion that they were trying to trick, cheat, or manipulate Greene into something.  That they were being really cheap, trying to short change their elite talent.  Their best defense if he didn't sign (which was never likely) was the fact they'd offered him so much cash - a record amount.  Anything less than McKay's $7.05m would've cost them that argument.  It didn't make sense for Greene to put off signing because (at best) he'd likely get around slot value next time, too - trying to short change him would create an incentive to avoid signing that didn't already exist.

I doubt anybody willing to sign for $225,000 (difference between McKay and Greene) would've excited many people.

Money to sign RHP Tommy Mace or SS Brady McConnell (who I don't think anyone ever thought would sign for any price) might have been an exciting baseball move, but it'd become a disaster especially if they lost Greene and his ~$7m slot value from the pool.  Not just a disaster, it'd become a catastrophe, pushing them into those pick-losing penalties that no team has yet faced while still losing their first round pick in the process.  In the end the Reds gave Greene reasons to sign, and no reasons to consider not to.


I was hoping he'd sign for $7.1m and they'd use the scraps to sign an irrelevant later pick, like one of the guys from Cincinnati, but not a big deal.

Ok I see what you're saying I think. So you're saying that if they did what I suggested, then Greene doesn't sign, then overslot for one of those guys would put us in that penalty phase that no team has ever done?

[Lark11]

Jul 7, 2017 21:38:25 GMT -5 redskoolaiddrinker said:

Jul 7, 2017 21:05:00 GMT -5 redsfanman said:

I'd argue that that situation, although intriguing, would be a public relations disaster, playing into the notion that they were trying to trick, cheat, or manipulate Greene into something.  That they were being really cheap, trying to short change their elite talent.  Their best defense if he didn't sign (which was never likely) was the fact they'd offered him so much cash - a record amount.  Anything less than McKay's $7.05m would've cost them that argument.  It didn't make sense for Greene to put off signing because (at best) he'd likely get around slot value next time, too - trying to short change him would create an incentive to avoid signing that didn't already exist.

I doubt anybody willing to sign for $225,000 (difference between McKay and Greene) would've excited many people.

Money to sign RHP Tommy Mace or SS Brady McConnell (who I don't think anyone ever thought would sign for any price) might have been an exciting baseball move, but it'd become a disaster especially if they lost Greene and his ~$7m slot value from the pool.  Not just a disaster, it'd become a catastrophe, pushing them into those pick-losing penalties that no team has yet faced while still losing their first round pick in the process.  In the end the Reds gave Greene reasons to sign, and no reasons to consider not to.


I was hoping he'd sign for $7.1m and they'd use the scraps to sign an irrelevant later pick, like one of the guys from Cincinnati, but not a big deal.

Ok I see what you're saying I think. So you're saying that if they did what I suggested, then Greene doesn't sign, then overslot for one of those guys would put us in that penalty phase that no team has ever done?

I don't think you risk losing the best, or one of the best, prospects in the entire draft class so that you can sign a later round prospect. The Reds need upside and impact talent on the farm system. Greene is that.

[kinsm]

The Reds should have drafted someone in the 12th round they were certain they could sign and drafted Mace later or not at all, that amounts to a wasted pick. The same goes for their 14th and 18th round selections. Very few players in the first 20 rounds failed to sign. As a sum the Reds failed to sign a lot more of their draftees than other teams, their % of signing might be last when the final numbers come in.

Typically those players don't go on to be great but some do - potentially missed opportunities.