"With the 2nd overall pick in 2017 draft, the Reds should.."

[Lark11]

".....select Hunter Greene, RHP/SS from Notre Dame High School."


This is an instance where "Best Player Available" and "team need" align pretty well. Let's face it, this Reds rebuild needs impact, star talent where currently there is largely complimentary talent. Hunter Greene has the biggest upside in this draft. His combination of athleticism, makeup, and dual threat ability gives him a high ceiling, an ability to live up to expectations, and a diversified risk, respectively.

If the Twins select Hunter Greene, then the Reds should select Brendan McKay. Personally, I'd roll with McKay as a hitter, but once drafted the team could better evaluate where he fits.

I also like rhp Kyle Wright and lhp MacKenzie Gore, but they slot in behind my top two. I have some questions about Wright's arm action. On Gore, I'm intrigued to see what he becomes when he fills out a bit more. He already has a funky leg kick and a set of pitching mechanics that I really like, but at this point it's hard to slot him ahead of either Greene or McKay.

With the 32nd pick, I really want the Reds to grab Blayne Enlow, high school righthander. I love his mechanics and projection. He has a strong 3-pitch mix that includes a nasty 12-6 curveball. He has room to fill out, which should help boost the velocity on his fastball, which currently sits 89-92. I like Enlow a lot and hope he's there for the Reds at 32. I think he could be a steal and good value.

At pick number 39, I'd love to see the Reds select Brendon Little, lhp junior college pitcher, though Mark Vientos would be pretty tempting as well. Little has a limited track record, but strong mechanics and the type of power stuff you don't often see in lefthanded pitching. His over the top arm-slot pairs well with his breaking ball of choice, a power 12-6 curveball that is currently plus. Vientos is one of the younger prospects in the draft class, which matters for position player development, and could be a potential impact hitter with legitimate power down the line. Still, younger prospects may have more projection to their games, but they also have a longer development road to travel to reach that projection.

Finally, in a later round, I'd roll the dice on Austin Bush. He's a very large human being with very large power. He has undeniable flaws and may never make enough consistent contact to make the power playable against advanced competition, but that type of power can carry a hitter a long way. Bush has some idea of the strike zone and if he can overcome the challenges of being a taller hitter (longer levers, bigger strike zone), then he could be an impact bat.

At this point, I'd probably rate the players on my shadow draft board as follows:

Hunter Greene - rhp/ss
Brendan McKay - 1b/lhp
....
Blayne Enlow - rhp
Brendon Little - lhp
Mark Vientos - ss/3b
Logan Warmoth - ss
Trevor Rogers - lhp
....
Austin Bush - 1b


This is a draft the Reds need to get right. Their rebuild doesn't have the type of certainty and upside that other rebuilding teams have. The organization reeled in Nick Senzel last year and selecting a true impact talent in this draft would add much needed upside at the top end of the farm system.

Ideally, there would be polished college hitters at positions other than first base available to the Reds at 1.2, but that's just not the kind of draft this is, so Hunter Greene is the best option. If the Reds can walk away from this draft with Hunter Greene and Blayne Enlow, I'll be happy. If they can roll in a couple of Little, Vientos, Warmoth, Rogers, and/or Bush, then I'll be thrilled.

[redskoolaiddrinker]

Curious, where might Greene be projected if he was just a shortstop?

[The Duke]

Jun 12, 2017 9:43:31 GMT -5 redskoolaiddrinker said:

Curious, where might Greene be projected if he was just a shortstop?

I've heard as high as the 15-20 range, but other places say he's more of a late 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd rd pick as a SS. Defensively he can likely stick at SS, but there are real questions about the hit tool.

[Lark11]

Jun 12, 2017 9:55:20 GMT -5 The Duke said:

Jun 12, 2017 9:43:31 GMT -5 redskoolaiddrinker said:

Curious, where might Greene be projected if he was just a shortstop?

I've heard as high as the 15-20 range, but other places say he's more of a late 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd rd pick as a SS. Defensively he can likely stick at SS, but there are real questions about the hit tool.

Eh. I'd say top 15 picks. This is a down draft class and his athleticism, character/makeup, power, and defensive ability at a premier defensive position would make him a sought after player.

There aren't many (any?) players in this draft without a question or two attached to them.

[oldschoolstyle]

He'd go top 15 as a SS based on his hype as a pitcher. "just think if he focused on it full time" they'd say.

[Lark11]

Who does everyone else think we should grab at 1.2 and later?

Who do you want? Greene? McKay, Gore? Wright? Other?

Who you got?

[oldschoolstyle]

Oh and if we are going final picks for 1.2:

Greene
Wright
Gore
McKay

Overall I hope we go HS heavy. We need to start preparing another wave of talent. Going HS (upside) heavy this year and college heavy the next couple years will hopefully prepare another wave of talent.

[cbassxu]

Jun 12, 2017 11:09:36 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Who does everyone else think we should grab at 1.2 and later?

Who do you want? Greene? McKay, Gore? Wright? Other?

Who you got?

Definitely prefer Greene at 1.2 just because I think it's super hard to pass on that kind of upside but I guess at the end of the day Wright/McKay and even Gore present good enough arguments that I wouldn't be entirely upset if that's the direction they go in.

Because I'm a Xavier homer I'd like to see them end up with Lowther tomorrow and maybe even Rylan Bannon later in the draft.  

One other guy I've really liked watching this year for Vandy has been Will Toffey, would love to grab him around the 3rd or so if he's still around, seems to be getting a little extra buzz after a really good stretch in Vandy's tourney games though.  To me, he seems like a classic case of not having the upside of a lot of 1st day guys but is so well rounded it's hard to see him not making the bigs in some capacity. 

[kinsm]

...take Jobu!

[redsfanman]

I like both Greene and McKay.

I'll actually be a little disappointed to see McKay go to an AL team - in most cases it doesn't matter, but it'd be neat to see if he could win a Silver Slugger as a starting pitcher.  We watch lots of terrible hitting pitchers, like Johnny Cueto, it'd be interesting to see how McKay hit.  Probably better than Mike Leake.  Sure any team could explore using McKay as a two way player in the minors, but that's unlikely to continue at the MLB level.  But, with an NL team he'd be forced to be a two way player to at least a minimal extent.  He might even get opportunities to pinch hit.


I'm no scout but I like what I've read about OF Drew Waters (#23 by Baseball America), Tristen Lutz (#35), Mark Vientos (#40).  There seem to be some suggestions of Alex Lange (#34 by BA) missing the first round.  Brent Rooker still interests me at #38.  And no shortage of prep arms, which are so much a matter of projection that I don't have a strong opinion on which the take.

#32 and #38 should be really interesting, not as hyped as #2 but potentially almost as important to the Reds.

[redsfanman]

They interviewed Brendan McKay on the MLBNetwork pre-draft show, about the second or third time I've seen him drafted.  As an interviewee he just seems really... blah.  He seems relatively quiet, giving "yeah, whatever" sorta answers rather than anything thoughtful.  Something about how if a team pays him lots of money he'll do (hit vs pitch) what they want, because they've given him so much cash.

[oldschoolstyle]

Greene's story is incredible every time I hear it. Hope he's a Red in 40 min.

[redsfanman]

Greene definitely has a good story.  But he's good at interviews, probably even if you're merely asking him what he had for lunch.  From what I've heard he makes things sound interesting and thoughtful, while McKay makes them sound boring.

Oh well, there are far worse things than being boring!  Votto was a pretty boring interview for his first few years.

[mackenzie45220]

Jun 12, 2017 17:03:38 GMT -5 redsfanman said:

I like both Greene and McKay.

I'll actually be a little disappointed to see McKay go to an AL team - in most cases it doesn't matter, but it'd be neat to see if he could win a Silver Slugger as a starting pitcher.  We watch lots of terrible hitting pitchers, like Johnny Cueto, it'd be interesting to see how McKay hit.  Probably better than Mike Leake.  Sure any team could explore using McKay as a two way player in the minors, but that's unlikely to continue at the MLB level.  But, with an NL team he'd be forced to be a two way player to at least a minimal extent.  He might even get opportunities to pinch hit.


I'm no scout but I like what I've read about OF Drew Waters (#23 by Baseball America), Tristen Lutz (#35), Mark Vientos (#40).  There seem to be some suggestions of Alex Lange (#34 by BA) missing the first round.  Brent Rooker still interests me at #38.  And no shortage of prep arms, which are so much a matter of projection that I don't have a strong opinion on which the take.

#32 and #38 should be really interesting, not as hyped as #2 but potentially almost as important to the Reds.

At the same time, going to an AL team means that McKay could develop as both a pitcher and a DH. I get some teams are worried about playing a guy as a two-way player because they don't want to risk injury to the pitcher, but a DH feels different. I'd be interested to see if he becomes a DH.

[redsfanman]

DH can work, but might be a bit of a burden on McKay, especially if they determine his arm is ahead of his bat (at least in terms of facing MLB competition).  In the AL he'll be pulled out of the DH role if he struggles, but in the NL they'll have to stick with him every 5th day, no matter how he hits.

Pros and cons of both.  Seeing him make the majors as the Rays' DH and SP would be really exciting... but I don't know, to me that seems unlikely.  Too unprecedented, even for a player as talented as him.