Post by mackenzie45220 on Sept 19, 2015 9:33:42 GMT -5
Can I be excited about him? In a fairly pitcher friendly league, he put up a .283/.363/.474/.836 slash line in 42 games (173 PAs), good enough for a 144 wRC+ (best on the team for guys who had at least 70 PA). Unlike a guy like Aquino, there aren't ugly strikeout/walk numbers (10.4% BB, 17.9%K) that make his performance seem fluky. Oh, and he's young. Like, youngest player on the Dayton Dragons before Ty Boyles came up only to make 4 terrible starts. He turned 20 2 weeks before the season ended. If a guy is the youngest player on your minor league team, and he's the best (at least the best hitter), you either have a crappy minor league team or a good prospect. Oh, and he plays a premier defensive position. 2nd base, although he previously played catcher.
This was his first good season. However, the first two seasons (mediocre in 2013, downright bad in 2014), again, don't have scary walk/strikeout numbers lurking in the background. It's just that he hit for 0 power those two seasons, the first season he had a decent BABIP but his BABIP was nearly equal to his slugging percentage, and the next season he just had a bad BABIP (and his slugging percentage was worse than his BABIP, which is incredible). BABIP is pretty much luck for pitchers, but there's less luck involved for batters; guys who hit the ball hard will generally have a higher BABIP than guys who don't. Those first two seasons, his lack of extra base hits/poor BABIP seemed like 25 power on the 20-80 scale. This year, though, his power looked downright above average. 6 home runs in 42 games, with 7 doubles and 1 triple thrown into the mix. Completely respectable. But that uptick in power wasn't accompanied with more strikeouts. His K% actually got slightly better, and seeing a guy swing harder AND whiff a little bit less is always reason for optimism. And hey, his first two seasons, he was 17 and 18 years old. Maybe he just got stronger.
The question mark is probably defense. He was a catcher his first two seasons, but played second base this year. As a catcher, he had respectable success rate throwing out base stealers but allowed a fair amount of passed balls. As a second baseman, the sample size is smaller, in large part because he played his fair share of DH this season (which is a bit disappointing in itself). But, in the low minors, the only good way to evaluate infield defense (using stats) is with range factor and fielding percentage, and he did very well in both facets. A .960 fielding percentage for a 20 year old who is playing second base for the first time in his minor league career is just excellent. For context, it's basically a tie with Blandino, Trahan, Daal, worse than Ty Washington this year but better than he was in previous seasons (Washington is 2 years older), better than Shane Mardirosian, Brantley Bell, Cory Thompson, and Sparks, and pretty much every one of those guys are older than him.
The funny thing is he actually got off to the kind of start you would expect from a 19 year old in low A ball that didn't exactly play well enough in the Pioneer League to justify a promotion. But the final 26 games: .333/.402/.552 with 5 home runs in 118 plate appearances. That's just outstanding.
Oh, and a bit off topic, but what about Brian O'Grady? I know the 8th/9th/10th round senior signs pretty much never amount to anything, but we drafted this guy as a first baseman and now he plays centerfield. I do not think we knew what we were getting when we drafted him. But given the amount of pressure that has been taken off his bat with that position switch (and he's stealing enough based to suggest he may have the range of a centerfielder, although the arm is a complete mystery), that might be a good thing. Plus he has been competent with the bat (look at those walks!). I'm hoping he's the next Heisey.
This was his first good season. However, the first two seasons (mediocre in 2013, downright bad in 2014), again, don't have scary walk/strikeout numbers lurking in the background. It's just that he hit for 0 power those two seasons, the first season he had a decent BABIP but his BABIP was nearly equal to his slugging percentage, and the next season he just had a bad BABIP (and his slugging percentage was worse than his BABIP, which is incredible). BABIP is pretty much luck for pitchers, but there's less luck involved for batters; guys who hit the ball hard will generally have a higher BABIP than guys who don't. Those first two seasons, his lack of extra base hits/poor BABIP seemed like 25 power on the 20-80 scale. This year, though, his power looked downright above average. 6 home runs in 42 games, with 7 doubles and 1 triple thrown into the mix. Completely respectable. But that uptick in power wasn't accompanied with more strikeouts. His K% actually got slightly better, and seeing a guy swing harder AND whiff a little bit less is always reason for optimism. And hey, his first two seasons, he was 17 and 18 years old. Maybe he just got stronger.
The question mark is probably defense. He was a catcher his first two seasons, but played second base this year. As a catcher, he had respectable success rate throwing out base stealers but allowed a fair amount of passed balls. As a second baseman, the sample size is smaller, in large part because he played his fair share of DH this season (which is a bit disappointing in itself). But, in the low minors, the only good way to evaluate infield defense (using stats) is with range factor and fielding percentage, and he did very well in both facets. A .960 fielding percentage for a 20 year old who is playing second base for the first time in his minor league career is just excellent. For context, it's basically a tie with Blandino, Trahan, Daal, worse than Ty Washington this year but better than he was in previous seasons (Washington is 2 years older), better than Shane Mardirosian, Brantley Bell, Cory Thompson, and Sparks, and pretty much every one of those guys are older than him.
The funny thing is he actually got off to the kind of start you would expect from a 19 year old in low A ball that didn't exactly play well enough in the Pioneer League to justify a promotion. But the final 26 games: .333/.402/.552 with 5 home runs in 118 plate appearances. That's just outstanding.
Oh, and a bit off topic, but what about Brian O'Grady? I know the 8th/9th/10th round senior signs pretty much never amount to anything, but we drafted this guy as a first baseman and now he plays centerfield. I do not think we knew what we were getting when we drafted him. But given the amount of pressure that has been taken off his bat with that position switch (and he's stealing enough based to suggest he may have the range of a centerfielder, although the arm is a complete mystery), that might be a good thing. Plus he has been competent with the bat (look at those walks!). I'm hoping he's the next Heisey.