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Post by redsfanman on Sept 9, 2015 9:22:26 GMT -5
And Hamilton blows. He'll eventually not hit his way out of a job. So, saying he blows got me interested in looking up some numbers. Billy Hamilton's fWAR is down to 2.0 this year, after being a 3.2 last season. Although that might have to do with playing 50 more games last year. If he remains such a good centerfielder he's likely to retain a job. His 2.0 fWAR ranks him 18th amongst MLB CFs (although #15-18 all have a 2.0 fWAR). Only Michael Taylor and Angel Pagan have been nearly as bad as Hamilton offensively, while only Kevin Kiermaier has been better. Michael Taylor and Kevin Pillar have been the next best defensively. I'm a little surprised at how good Pillar has been. Geraldo Parra has been, by far, the worst defensive CF, according to Fangraphs, while Angel Pagan has been the only CF with enough PAs to qualify who still has a negative fWAR. Out of 56 CFs with 100+ PAs, Hamilton is #21 in fWAR. I think he's still more likely to improve at the plate than get worse, and more likely to move up the standings in 2016 and beyond than go down. I doubt he'll hit his way out of a job, unless both his fielding gets worse.
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Post by rocky15231 on Sept 9, 2015 10:13:19 GMT -5
I haven't watched a full game in months. I generally DVR every game and watch off and on, but usually turn it off if there's something better to watch. If Holmberg or Sampson pitches, I fast forward. I will watch Votto hit, Chapman pitch and anything if there's nothing else on. I do watch the Iglesias and Lamb starts though. So yes, unless things happen in those pockets of me watching, it's hard to judge. I can only go off numbers and what I've seen, and Suarez is not a future SS over Cozart. However, I believe he's good enough to start on this roster and thus, it's gotta be somewhere other than SS. It should be 2B. Phillips should be dumped. If Suarez has really improved his fielding at SS, then he should be fine at 2B.
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Post by rocky15231 on Sept 9, 2015 10:16:12 GMT -5
I do give anyone who watches every game, in-full, major props. That's true dedication to a dumpster fire.
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Post by reds4life1986 on Sept 9, 2015 15:12:28 GMT -5
Billy Hamilton spent last winter working with Mike Cameron on bunting and stuff, but the Reds have implied a more detailed plan for him this winter, perhaps involving focusing exclusively on batting right handed. I look forward to seeing what they come up with. That he'll be in CF is the only known thing about the 2016 outfield. I think starting catcher Mesoraco will play some games in the OF, but not as the regular. 20 or 30 games, about as many as Buster Posey plays at 1b. Just adding that ability will be a huge asset, not just if he's hurt, but for those pesky day-games-after-night games and other events when he's unable to catch. SS of the future Suarez to the outfield remains a horrible idea. After years of complaining about Cozart and how the team lacks shortstops, moving one off the position is a horrible idea, especially when the biggest concern the guy faces is a need for work/practice/reps at shortstop. I hope Cozart, after proving himself to be healthy, can be traded during spring training. Otherwise, to the bench with him. LF Jesse Winker should be starting 2016 in AAA. How long will he stay there? With the team not expecting to contend can we expect them to acquire a big name, entrenched LF? I doubt it, I think they'll go with another stopgap before Winker gets a midseason promotion. Maybe as early as June. Yorman Rodriguez (raw tools), Steve Selsky (OBP), and Adam Duvall (raw power) should all get looks in spring training. I doubt any of those three will end up as the best option, though. I also hope the Reds are active in the Rule 5 draft. There have been a few success stories this year amongst hitters in Mark Canha (chosen #2), Delino DeShields Jr (chosen #3), and Odubel Herrera (chosen #9). Last winter the Reds chose 10th, after all those hitters were gone (LHP Sean Gilmartin was the only Rule 5 success story taken #10 or later). Maybe choosing somewhere between 1st and 5th will get them a good player. The Reds are in a perfect position to make good use of the Rule 5 draft. I expect that a major holdup in trade-deadline talks for Bruce and Chapman was the Reds wanting hitters in return, when other teams offered guys like Zack Wheeler and Braden Shipley. Hopefully some major trades for young hitters can be completed this winter. With Bruce and Chapman trades now seemingly the top priorities, I expect they'll get done. At this point all I think we can safely predict about the 2016 outfield is that Billy Hamilton will play CF, Mesoraco will play a corner spot part time, and Jesse Winker will debut later in the season. Much of the outfield situation is in limbo, pending expected transactions. I think we'll have a much better picture of things by the end of the Winter Meetings... when the Rule 5 draft takes place, and the time last year where Simon and Latos were traded. Do you think they will send hamilton to play winter ball somewere to focus on rh hitting. Can larkin help him? Thought i heard he straighten cozart out this past offseason
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Post by kinsm on Sept 9, 2015 22:55:49 GMT -5
I'm thinking there is a 60/40 chance the team gets blown up this winter. Bruce will be gone -- any residual trade value he has at this point will be close to zero if the acquiring team can't at least get the option of making him a QO next winter. I think if BP is willing, he'll be dealt. Cozart will go if there is a good enough offer for him, he's also in his final arby year. Schu will be gone. Bourgeous and Boesch are both arby eligible, most likely they're both gone. LaMarre is horrible. I think you roll next year with Waldrop, BHam, & Winker going from right-to-left. YRod is the fourth outfielder and next in line in CF if BHam continues to stink. Meso behind the plate, Votto and Frazier at the corners, Suarez at SS and Dejesus at 2B (if BP is willing to leave). I think Bruce trade is 50/50, if they move him they have to replace him. Anyone getting him won't be concerned with a QO next winter since his team option is worth less than the QO. Do you get any sense that BP is willing? I for one don't, I'd be interested to hear from someone who thinks he is. Cozart still has 2 years. Yep, Skip, Bourgeois and Boesch should all be gone. Yep, LaMarre is horrible. I see 0% chance of Waldrop starting with the Reds next year. And maybe a 1% chance of Winker. If either of them were being thought of as potential opening day starters they'd be up right now. IF BP moves I'd think Cozart definitely stays and Suarez moves to 2B, doubt De Jesus would be starting.
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 10, 2015 7:59:43 GMT -5
Billy Hamilton spent last winter working with Mike Cameron on bunting and stuff, but the Reds have implied a more detailed plan for him this winter, perhaps involving focusing exclusively on batting right handed. I look forward to seeing what they come up with. That he'll be in CF is the only known thing about the 2016 outfield. Do you think they will send hamilton to play winter ball somewere to focus on rh hitting. Can larkin help him? Thought i heard he straighten cozart out this past offseason I doubt Hamilton will play winter ball, as beaten up as he's been. Both years he's seemingly worn down as the season progresses, so I'm not sure adding more games is a great idea. I'm not wild about the idea of abandoning switch hitting, but whatever helps. Last winter the Reds seemingly left Hamilton to train with Mike Cameron and work a bit with Delino DeShields, but I expect this year they'll have a more detailed plan/strategy for him. Like choosing some hitting instructor to work with all winter. Can Barry Larkin help Hamilton? I doubt it, at least there's no evidence that he can. Larkin, the former team captain, might be a successful team leader and stuff, but I think that's a very different role from a hitting instructor. Larkin has worked as a roaming hitting instructor in the minors this year, but as he hasn't stayed anywhere with the same hitters it's hard to determine his performance (I mean, if a player hits badly at some level the popular choice is to fire the hitting coach at that level...). I hadn't heard Cozart credit Larkin with his recent success. If he did, cool. But I think Cozart just needed some tinkering (and confidence), while Billy Hamilton requires far more drastic measures, including a whole different approach. I think Cozart's terrible 2014 season made many people forget that he's better than he showed that year. 2015 Cozart was just 2012 and 2013 Cozart with an OBP ~30 points higher. Cozart seemingly rediscovered some of his power, although I suspect he also had a Frazier-es q first half (he's twice shown ~15 homerun power in 600 PAs, but hit 9 in 214 PAs this year... like Frazier's ~30 homeruns in the first half I expect that rate would have dropped off, rather than continued). I think a healthy Cozart would have finished with about 15 homeruns, rather than the 27 he was roughly on pace for. That 15 homerun guy is the same old Cozart, not a radically new one with a whole new approach. Some people make Cozart sound like JD Martinez, who's famous for struggling and then coming up with a whole new hitting approach, to become a far better hitter. Cozart had some decent seasons, a bad one, and a decent one again, with only minor changes. Billy Hamilton needs something far more drastic - a different approach... as we know, primarily about making more contact and hitting the ball on the round rather than in the air. Better plate discipline would certainly be a plus (technically he's already walking more and striking out less than last year), but in my opinion hitting the ball in the air has been his biggest problem. Like JD Martinez, Hamilton needs to basically become a whole different hitter to be a true success. I don't see how Barry Larkin fits into that.
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 10, 2015 8:13:41 GMT -5
I do give anyone who watches every game, in-full, major props. That's true dedication to a dumpster fire. I don't watche very game in-full. I don't see it as dedication to a dumpster fire, I see it as watching young starters. Even in a last place team there are some interesting players, some positives. Lately I often watch John Lamb's (because he's new, and still an unknown). I watched Keyvius Sampson's first few starts, to get an idea of what he can do, and Holmberg's first few. I largely stopped watching DeSclafani a while ago, and stopped watching Raisel Iglesias (he's good, end of story) more recently... like Leake and Cueto before them. I hope to see Lorenzen pitch again a few more times before the end of the season, to see if he's made any adjustments in AAA. In most cases I've been turning the games off when the starter leaves, as I have little interest in seeing the bullpen. My interest in seeing the young starters (which I time my dinner to coincide with) has allowed me to see lots of Eugenio Suarez. In the next few days I'll be following the bullpen carefully, hoping to see when Brandon Finnegan enters a game. I expected him to pitch yesterday, after Sampson. At this point Lamb and Lorenzen are the pitchers who I am most likely to watch. I'm rooting for the pitchers to do well, and for the team to lose for reasons irrelevant to 2016. I don't care one bit about seeing Chapman, at this point. If he's in saving a game, who cares.
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Post by reds4life1986 on Sept 10, 2015 11:48:22 GMT -5
I hope finnegan goes tonight, i listen to every game in full at work, and watch on on the weekends. Marty and brantly keep it intresting for sure. But i love watching each guy pitch, seeing if they learned from last starts, love hearing the reds beat writer in the second inning. And usually brian price talks about the starter from night before. And im highly excited following suarez night to night!
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flash
Ted Kluszewski
Posts: 703
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Post by flash on Sept 11, 2015 8:32:02 GMT -5
Who knows. I mean, Suarez is a terrible defensive shortstop. How do we fix that? Move him to the only position that is tougher to play! Then again, it is the Reds... A few years ago the reds had a prospect who was absolutely horrible at shortstop. So they moved him to center. His name was HAMILTON. Suarez is a lot beeter shortstop than Hamilton ever was so center should be no problem
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Post by redsfanman on Sept 11, 2015 8:47:18 GMT -5
Who knows. I mean, Suarez is a terrible defensive shortstop. How do we fix that? Move him to the only position that is tougher to play! Then again, it is the Reds... A few years ago the reds had a prospect who was absolutely horrible at shortstop. So they moved him to center. His name was HAMILTON. Suarez is a lot beeter shortstop than Hamilton ever was so center should be no problem Billy Hamilton, from what I recalled, had lots of throwing errors, with his arm not working well at that position, but having spectacular speed and range. He was moved to a position that made best use of his skill (speed) and limited the pressure on his concern (accurate throwing arm). Eugenio Suarez - in the errors I've seen - has mostly bumbled balls hit right at him, rather than his arm being a big issue. Watch him and you won't see a particularly speedy guy with tremendous range, you'll see a guy with pretty average shortstop range whose biggest problem is catching the balls he gets to. The best comparison on the Reds for Suarez's speed, range, and all-around raw talents, in my opinion, is clearly Brandon Phillips. From what I've seen of Suarez and heard about SS Hamilton, Suarez has less range but a stronger, more accurate arm. Hamilton's skill set clearly translated better to CF. In a perfect world a Eugenio Suarez unable to play SS would mimic Brandon Phillips and move to 2b, not CF. Nothing about Suarez suggests a CF.
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