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Post by general on Feb 12, 2015 21:55:46 GMT -5
I'm fairly sure my answer explained that. Their payroll rose in conjunction with the increased national tv contracts, I expect the same when they sign a new local tv deal. And yes you are. What did I do to hurt your feelings? I don't even remember. I just talk baseball. Just realized I'm the only one who has responded to most of your recent threads. But I'm ignored. Lol @ you.
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Post by vtreds22 on Feb 12, 2015 23:29:13 GMT -5
Schoenfield has the Mets ranked 10th. He is out of his damn mind. He thinks Harvey and Wright make major comebacks, and everyone beats up on the Braves and Phillies. This analysis of the Reds is very pessimistic, but it doesn't seem implausible... That's fair enough logic, but I'm just not seeing it. Their lineup is bad. Murphy is solid, Cuddyer can't stay healthy, Dude is basically a poor man's Bruce, and Wright was a disaster last season. The rest of their lineup screams 'meh'. Their rotation is intriguing but far from spectacular. They do have some nice young arms though. Seems to me that the only thing they only real thing they have going for them is playing in a weak division (outside of Washington). I don't see how on Earth they can be considered the 10th best team in baseball (not that these things matter; it just doesn't make any sense). From a talent standpoint I think the Reds are better. They do play in a much tougher division though, so I suppose that can't be ignored.
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Post by kinsm on Feb 12, 2015 23:31:45 GMT -5
What did I do to hurt your feelings? I don't even remember. I just talk baseball. Just realized I'm the only one who has responded to most of your recent threads. But I'm ignored. Lol @ you. There are so few people posting right now that I am unhiding the hidden comments. You were put on ignore because you were being a troll, if I believe your new comments are worth reading I'd likely "un" ignore you. So far...no.
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Post by general on Feb 13, 2015 0:20:47 GMT -5
Just realized I'm the only one who has responded to most of your recent threads. But I'm ignored. Lol @ you. There are so few people posting right now that I am unhiding the hidden comments. You were put on ignore because you were being a troll, if I believe your new comments are worth reading I'd likely "un" ignore you. So far...no. Darn!
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Post by Lark11 on Feb 13, 2015 1:39:30 GMT -5
He thinks Harvey and Wright make major comebacks, and everyone beats up on the Braves and Phillies. This analysis of the Reds is very pessimistic, but it doesn't seem implausible... That's fair enough logic, but I'm just not seeing it. Their lineup is bad. Murphy is solid, Cuddyer can't stay healthy, Dude is basically a poor man's Bruce, and Wright was a disaster last season. The rest of their lineup screams 'meh'. Their rotation is intriguing but far from spectacular. They do have some nice young arms though. Seems to me that the only thing they only real thing they have going for them is playing in a weak division (outside of Washington). I don't see how on Earth they can be considered the 10th best team in baseball (not that these things matter; it just doesn't make any sense). From a talent standpoint I think the Reds are better. They do play in a much tougher division though, so I suppose that can't be ignored. It's a bet on their starting pitching, which *could* be spectacular if Matt Harvey returns to pitch at his pre-injury performance level. If Jacob deGrom stays healthy, then he's a stud. Zack Wheeler is on the upswing and Thor is lurking in the wings. A kick ass pitching staff makes up for a lot of sins.
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 13, 2015 6:32:53 GMT -5
He thinks Harvey and Wright make major comebacks, and everyone beats up on the Braves and Phillies. This analysis of the Reds is very pessimistic, but it doesn't seem implausible... That's fair enough logic, but I'm just not seeing it. Their lineup is bad. Murphy is solid, Cuddyer can't stay healthy, Dude is basically a poor man's Bruce, and Wright was a disaster last season. Their rotation is intriguing but far from spectacular. They do have some nice young arms though. The fun of it is that he concedes all this before picking them as a playoff team. The Rangers made a publicity slogan of their "live young arms" before the 1973 season, in which they lost 105 games...
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 13, 2015 9:45:48 GMT -5
Despite their poor reputation I don't think the Mets should be written off either. Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, and DeGrom make a great young rotation, in addition to the guys I think they should soon trade away (as soon as the younger guys are ready, both in development and health) in Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee. The later two probably have plenty of trade value yet, and can be moved to address other needs.
David Wright is coming off a down season and Travis d'Arnaud has plenty of room to improve. Wright is probably the only position player who is noticeably better than his Reds counterpart though. If d'Arnaud does well catcher Kevin Plawecki could make a valuable trade chip. 2b Dilson Herrera (age 20) and INF Matt Reynolds (age 24) had impressive seasons in AAA, potentially making 2b Daniel Murphy into trade bait.
10th best? Eh, whatever. Who cares, I think they'll do fine. After going 79-83 I think they'll improve, while promoting (or reactivating) young players and trading older veterans for more young talent. I think the team is headed in the right direction, especially when they're eventually rid of (any OR all of, depending on the circumstances) Colon, Niese, Gee, and Murphy.
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 15, 2015 10:01:51 GMT -5
Because the season can't start before Walt Jocketty says "We like our club," here you go...
Despite Doubters, Reds Aim for Top of NL Central [Ed: As If They Have a Choice] John Fay, Enquirer, 2/14/2015
It's pretty clear the Reds didn't win the offseason. The moves they made weren't enough to sway the prognosticators that they'll return to contention.
The preview magazines mostly have them finishing fifth in the five-team National League Central. One of the ESPN.com rankings has them No. 24 among the 30 teams in baseball.
This isn't terribly surprising. The Reds finished 76-86 last year and fourth in the Central. While the Reds made a lot of moves this offseason, none of them was a broad-stroke, attention-getting upgrade. The team that finished behind them in the Central, the Chicago Cubs, were one of the teams that made a lot of bold moves.
But the Reds open camp on Wednesday confident they can return to contention, despite what the experts say.
"That doesn't bother us," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "We like being under the radar. We like our club. If we stay healthy, this is very good club."
The goal is to get back on top of the Central.
"No one up here is thinking about anything less than winning the Central," Reds manager Bryan Price said as the Winter Caravan wrapped up.
The moves the Reds made in the offseason — adding Marlon Byrd through a trade, signing Burke Badenhop and Kevin Gregg, trading Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon for prospects — aren't going to turn a team that finished 10 games under .500 into a contender.
But the Reds played 100 games last year without Joey Votto. You can argue all you want about his approach at the plate, but you can't argue the fact that the Reds are an infinitely better team with him in the lineup. In the previous three or four years before last year, the Reds won at least 90 games and made the playoffs. With Votto out or ineffective most of last year, the Reds were never a threat in the second half.
If Votto's healthy, it will go a long way toward getting the Reds where they need to be. But they'll also need more from Jay Bruce — a lot more. Bruce had an awful year last year. He hit .217 with a career-low 18 home runs. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, people tend to forget Bruce was a very good hitter very recently. He had 30 home runs, 43 doubles and 109 RBI in 2013. He was second in the NL in extra-base hits that year.
If Bruce and Votto return to their '13 levels, it will be good for roughly 10 or 11 wins based on WAR (Wins Above Replacement).
That should give the Reds a chance.
Sean Casey, a semi-unbiased observer, thinks the Reds are underrated.
"I think they're better than what people think," said Casey, the former Red and current MLB Network analyst. "Anytime you've got Johnny Cueto as your No. 1, you've got to feel good about that. You've got Mike Leake. You've got Homer Bailey. That's a pretty formidable three. You're going to get guys back. (Joey) Votto is going to be back. Jay Bruce is going to be back from that knee. I don't think he was totally healthy last year. Brandon Phillips was hurt.
"It was a MASH until last year. You have (Aroldis) Chapman in the 'pen. It's going to be a good team. If they stay healthy, it's going to be a good product."
Pretty much everyone is going to use "if healthy" when assessing the Reds. If you find someone who thinks they can get as little from Votto and Bruce as they did last year and win, ask them how much of the Kool-Aid they've had to drink.
The Reds — even with a payroll that will approach $120 million — cannot guard against their highest-paid and best players being hurt and ineffective.
Jocketty is satisfied he addressed the other major issues.
"Coming out of the Winter Meetings, we wanted to add a power bat for left field," he said. "We did that with Byrd. We wanted to add to the depth of our rotation. We've done that with (Anthony) DeSclafani. We've also got Tony Cingrani and David Holmberg. And we brought in (Jason) Marquis and (Paul) Maholm to give us some veteran experience.
"Badenhop and Gregg should solidify the bullpen."
The wild card in all this is Raisel Iglesias, the Cuban right-hander the Reds signed to a seven-year, $30 million deal. Iglesias blew scouts away with his stuff in the Arizona Fall League. If he takes that fourth starter spot, that will go a long way toward solidifying the bullpen.
The one area the Reds didn't address much is the bench. The club traded away Chris Heisey, the only pinch-hit power threat.
The Reds are hoping some of the non-roster invitees can help.
The club added infielder/outfielder Chris Dominguez last week. Dominguez was a top prospect with San Francisco.
"We think he's a guy who can help us. He's versatile. He can play all the corner positions. He's played shortstop in the minors. He's got some power. The only downside is strikeouts. We'll work on that."
The Reds also added Brennen Boesch in November.
"Don't forget about him," Jocketty said. "He had excellent numbers at Triple-A."
The Reds are going to have to get lucky with some players like Dominguez and Boesch. They're also going to need Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco to hit close to what they hit last year.
If — again a big if — some of that happens and Bruce and Votto are healthy, all the prognosticators could be wrong.
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Post by kinsm on Feb 15, 2015 18:40:19 GMT -5
^ how many times was the word "if" used in that piece?
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 20, 2015 19:59:02 GMT -5
Burke Badenhop Brings Statistical Savvy to Reds' Bullpen C. Trent Rosecrans, Enquirer, 2/20/2015
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Burke Badenhop talks about baseball more like a guy with an economics degree from Bowling Green State University than he does a baseball player. Yet, he's both.
The 32-year-old Badenhop was the only free agent the Reds added to their 40-man roster this offseason, and his addition was still largely overlooked. Being overlooked is hardly a new occurrence for a middle reliever.
Still, he could be a huge addition for a Reds bullpen that was one of the worst in baseball a year ago. Badenhop is 18-23 with a 3.71 ERA in parts of seven seasons with four teams, and was 0-3 with a 2.29 ERA last season in Boston. Those aren't the numbers that cause the ticket office to bring in extra staffing, and they're not even the numbers Badenhop uses to judge his own performance — or the reason the Reds signed him.
The biggest thing with Badenhop is his 55.6 percent career ground-ball rate, and the 61 percent he had last season was seventh-best in baseball among qualified relievers. At Great American Ball Park with one of the best defenses in the game behind him, a pitcher with that type of ground-ball rate is perfect for the Reds.
When Badenhop joined the Rays before the 2012 season after four years with the Marlins, he was introduced more to the statistical analysis favored by Tampa and many other teams. Because of his education, the numbers made a lot of sense to him, and he started looking at advanced statistics more, as well as thinking about which numbers were really important.
"Economics is how numbers paint a picture, and that's kind of how baseball is," Badenhop said.
In addition to ground ball percentage — which is simply which percentage of the balls put into player are grounders — here are some other statistics Badenhop likes to look at as a reliever:
• RE24: This is run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states, which means the different situations you can enter a game. There are exactly 24 situations a pitchers can face, based on outs and where the baserunners are, i.e., runner on first and one out, or bases empty, bases loaded, runners on first and second with two outs, etc.
"Not every situation is equal," Badenhop said.
In the end, RE24 tells Badenhop how much he helped his team. Last season he had an RE24 of 12.09 — or more than 12 runs better than average. According to FanGraphs.com, an RE24 of 10 is "great" and of 15 is "excellent" for relievers. He was 27th among qualified relievers in the statistic last season, with only one Reds pitcher besting his mark — Aroldis Chapman (15.07). Of the 19 Reds relievers last season, only nine — including Skip Schumaker — had an RE24 above 0 last season.
• WHIP: While it's often stated as an advanced stat, WHIP is perhaps as simple of a statistic as there is in baseball. It's name says it all — "Walks, Hits per Inning Pitched." That's how many people you put on base versus how many outs. Last season, Badenhop was at 1.259, not bad, but not outstanding. Although that's to be expected for a pitcher that doesn't strike out a high rate of batters and relies on his defense to turn balls in play into outs.
And then there's the much longer list of stats Badenhop doesn't like — or at least doesn't believe paint an accurate picture of a reliever's performance.
• Holds: The amount of bile that Badenhop has for holds may top all the rest. While there's limitations to some stats, holds have very little redeeming value, yet are used in arbitration and by teams.
Few people seem to like - or care about - holds, but the stat still holds some sway.
• Inherited runs scored: Badenhop considers this the other side of RE24.
"It doesn't take into account the situation," he said. "It doesn't take into account who is at the plate. You can come into the game with bases loaded and nobody out and it assumes it's the same as bases loaded and no outs."
More than six months later, this stat sticks in Badenhop's craw because of his first blown save of 2014, on June 15 against Cleveland. Boston's Brandon Workman gave up a walk and a single to start the seventh, when John Farrell called in Badenhop with runners on first and third and no outs.
"I get a sac fly and to left field, 285 feet — and it's a blown save. I get the next two guys out, bing, bang, boom — and blown save," Badenhop said. "There's nothing worse than a blown save. I wasn't in there to save the game and I get a blown save. Re24 will tell you that first and third and nobody out, that guy at third is going to score most of the time. That guy's probably going to score to tie the game, my job is to make sure the guy on first doesn't score, so we're not losing the game. I did my job."
• ERA: Because of several factors — sample sizes, situational differences and the fact that runs are charged to the pitcher who put the runner on, rather than the pitcher who allowed the run — this can be flawed for relievers.
"ERA (for relievers) terrible — unless you have a really good one," Badenhop said.
And that's where his bias as a non-closer comes in. Closers, he notes, will have a skewed ERA because — "if you're on the road, and you blow the game, the game's over. If it's a tie game, you give up a run, the game's over. You don't have a chance to blow up and give four runs."
But of all the numbers he can recite, Badenhop said the best is the least complex — 0.
"I like to think about how many times I get my job done," Badenhop said. "(Fellow Reds reliever) Kevin Gregg, in my first spring training and my first time in the bullpen, he told me your job is to put up a zero. That's your job."
It's a job he did 57 times out of 70 tries last season — and that's why he may be one of the team's biggest pickups of the offseason.
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 20, 2015 22:51:55 GMT -5
Adam Wainwright Workload at Issue Associated Press, 2/20/2015
JUPITER, Fla. -- The St. Louis Cardinals intend to limit Adam Wainwright's workload during the spring and perhaps into the season, something their ace isn't completely confident should be a goal.
Wainwright averaged 222 innings the past three seasons.
He went 20-9 last year, then had surgery to remove torn cartilage from his right elbow after St. Louis was eliminated by the San Francisco Giants in the NL Championship Series.
Manager Mike Matheny said Friday the most noticeable change this spring may be the number of starts Wainwright gets. Matheny didn't specify a limitation for Wainwright, who made five spring starts last year.
"It will just be him continuing to get the work, but it just might not be work on the game field," Matheny said.
Wainwright said he could probably be ready for the opener with four starts, but wasn't as sure about his sharpness if he made just three starts.
But, he added, "As long as we are talking about limiting starts now and not in the regular season I'm fine with it."
Wainwright already throws a less vigorous bullpen session between starts than many starters. He pointed out that the Cardinals won the Central by two games last season so every one of his starts counted.
"If I take starts off we may not get to the postseason," Wainwright said. "And getting there, to me, seems pretty important."
Wainwright joked that the answer to scaling the workload back may be a matter of being more efficient.
"I'm getting paid to play every five days as it is, not every day," Wainwright said. "If I'm skipping my one every five days, good Lord, what am I getting paid for?"
The Cardinals realize keeping the ball out of Wainwright's hand isn't going to be easy.
"He's our ace, he's going to want to pitch," general manager John Mozeliak said.
The 20-game winner was among those throwing off a mound on the first official workout for pitchers and catchers. He spent part of a short session working on his cutter.
It was the third time Wainwright has thrown off a mound since arriving in Florida a few weeks early.
Wainwright isn't the only pitcher the Cardinals are watching closely because of an injury suffered in 2014. Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia also threw Friday.
Wacha missed much of last season with a stress reaction in his shoulder and Garcia was limited to seven starts before undergoing surgery to relieve nerve compression. A healthy Wacha's spot in the rotation is secure while Garcia, who hasn't pitched in more than 20 games since 2011, isis fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation.
"He's a guy that's never been a doubt about his stuff," Matheny said. "He's going to have to show durability and I don't know if there's enough time through spring training to actually show that."
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Post by kinsm on Feb 26, 2015 10:53:27 GMT -5
Jon Broxton was a closer for all of two seconds.
Francisco Rodriguez has agreed to a 2 year deal (plus club option) / 13M $ to return to the Brewers.
Rodriguez has 348 saves in his 799 game career, he turned 33 last month. The previous 3 off-season's he was forced to sign 1 year deals via free agency (all three times with the Brewers).
Broxton will make 9 million $ this season to be the Brewers setup man (a contract he initially signed with the Reds).
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 26, 2015 17:00:16 GMT -5
Opening Day Possible for Cards' Ace Associated Press, 2/26/2015
JUPITER, Fla. -- Adam Wainwright has been diagnosed with an abdominal strain, but the St. Louis ace could be available to pitch the Cardinals' opener at Wrigley Field on April 5.
Wainwright strained the muscle Monday while putting a 45-pound weight back on a rack. General manager John Mozeliak said Thursday that the strain is about belt high.
"Based on all the different studies and what the doctor saw, he feels this was the best news we could have gotten," Mozeliak said.
Wainwright said that the pain originally felt like a twinge when it first occurred and that the injury bothered him when he ran or lunged but did not affect his pitching. He walked off a practice field Tuesday after the team's stretch, returned to St. Louis on Wednesday and was examined by Dr. Michael Brunt on Thursday.
"In the end, I feel good about what we know, and I know Adam is relieved," Mozeliak said.
Wainwright was expected back at spring training later Thursday. Mozeliak said Wainwright will avoid running and lifting for at least half a week but can throw.
"I think we can take the foot off the gas on the bullpen session," Mozeliak said. "We'll discuss what that strategy looks like in conjunction with the medical staff, but based on what I've been told, having him continue to throw is OK," Mozeliak said.
Mozeliak said Wainwright will need to make three or four exhibition starts to be ready for the season.
Wainwright went 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA last year, then underwent offseason elbow surgery to remove cartilage from his throwing elbow. He began 12-4 with a 1.83 ERA and started the All-Star Game for the NL, then went 8-5 with a 3.24 ERA.
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 26, 2015 17:02:00 GMT -5
Jon Broxton was a closer for all of two seconds. Still a big day for him...
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Post by psuhistory on Feb 27, 2015 13:46:33 GMT -5
Shadow of doubt forming...
Wainwright's Spring Debut Delayed Associated Press, 2/27/2015
JUPITER, Fla. -- Adam Wainwright won't pitch in exhibition games until mid-March because of his abdominal strain, a delay that could prevent the St. Louis Cardinals ace from starting the major league season opener at the Chicago Cubs on April 5.
Wainwright was hurt Monday while putting a 45-pound weight back on a rack. He returned to St. Louis for an examination by Dr. Michael Brunt, who said the injury was minor.
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny is open to the idea of pushing back Wainwright's season debut a couple of days if the right-hander doesn't respond to prescribed rest as quickly as doctors expect.
"That's always an option," Matheny said Friday. "We just have to see where we are and what it looks like, too."
Wainwright will avoid running and weightlifting for at least the next couple of days, but can resume throwing because his delivery and follow-through don't cause any discomfort. He even emerged from the clubhouse during one of Friday's downpours and threw on flat ground.
"It's the news that we thought we were going to hear but it was relieving to hear it -- to know that there isn't something else in there going on that should cause some concern," Wainwright said.
The Cardinals' training staff will evaluate Wainwright's progress early next week.
"Everything that I've heard is that in four or five days I should feel dramatically better and they can start kind of bringing me along slow to get back into a normal daily routine," Wainwright said.
Wainwright and the Cardinals say he needs at least three and preferably four spring training starts to be ready for the season.
St. Louis had already planned to scale back the exhibition workload of its ace, a plan that Wainwright accepted but didn't completely embrace. Wainwright made five exhibition starts last year.
"Everybody was saying, 'You need to scale back your innings in spring training,'" Wainwright said. "Well, God just naturally found a way to make that happen without ticking me off."
Matheny wouldn't commit to a date for Wainwright's first spring training start.
"It might not look all that different depending on how he progresses," Matheny said.
Wainwright went 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA last year, then underwent offseason elbow surgery to remove cartilage from his throwing elbow. He began 12-4 with a 1.83 ERA and started the All-Star Game for the NL, then went 8-5 with a 3.24 ERA.
Most players chose not to follow Wainwright into the rain. Pitchers threw bullpen sessions inside the covered batting cages, and position players held their workouts in the clubhouse rooms and hallways.
"We are going to try and stay on pace with getting the things accomplished that we would have done out there, with just a different space," Matheny said.
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