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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2014 4:30:53 GMT -5
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 16, 2014 9:26:07 GMT -5
What does every minor league club needing to have a first baseman have to do with actively shifting a prospect to first base??? Most teams shift prospects to avoid having them be blocked. Evidently the Reds want to shift their prospect to a position where he is blocked. So, that's different. As for Winker, he's 21 years old and, at the very least, a full year away, probably more. He and Lutz, if he actually develops, aren't on the same time frame. I can understand wanting Lutz to add versatility by working at both first base and in left field, that makes sense. That gives you Joey Votto insurance. But, if Votto isn't injured, then first base is blocked for the next 206 years. Moving Lutz to first base full-time would be another baffling development decision. Who the hell said anything about Lutz? We are talking about Waldrop. Lutz needs to be dfa'd in 2 weeks. Ah, ok, I thought you were addressing RFM about Lutz. That still doesn't make sense. If Waldrop is a legit prospect, then it makes no sense to shift him to 1b. The reasoning holds, maybe even more so because Waldrop is a better prospect at this point and Votto still isn't going anywhere.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 16, 2014 10:39:29 GMT -5
I think the Reds just see their future as Winker in LF, Bruce in RF, and Votto at 1b, but any of the three could get hurt, and Waldrop is being prepared to play any of those three positions. Meanwhile Yorman Rodriguez is being trained to play CF, LF, and RF... but I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to see Yorman play a corner rather than center, which again factors into a desire to prepare Waldrop to play 1b.
I don't think Kyle Waldrop playing 1b in the AFL means he's now a full-time 1b who's finished in the outfield. I don't recall reviews of his performance in the outfield being particularly bad, relative to guys like Lutz and Winker. It seems like they're trying to add some versatility, and find an OF/1b who can fill whatever needs arise for the team. I definitely don't believe for a second that his position on the field relates to where he starts the season - he'll go where his bat takes him.
Another way of saying that, my impression is that he's playing 1b for reasons that Todd Frazier started learning to play 1b and OF - adding a spot for more opportunities at playing time - rather than the reason that Adam Dunn started playing 1b, because of his horrendous outfield defense requires him to be moved to a harder position to screw up. I think this position switch for Waldrop serves to ADVANCE, not DELAY his career. Good thing, not a bad thing.
Waldrop actually played a little 1b - 6 games - during the regular season, and is now working on it in the AFL. Presumably he did drills there during the regular season, so it's not like he's starting totally from scratch, like Jay Bruce's sudden debut at 1b. Brayan Pena quickly became a competent defensive firstbaseman (hitting is a completely different issue), and I see know reason why Waldrop can't do the same. First base isn't any easier or harder to play in AA, AAA, or MLB, is it? It's the same position. I definitely don't think the additonal position will get him held back in AA. Clearly it hasn't harmed his hitting in the AFL.
One difference between Waldrop and Lutz, in my opinion, is that the Reds seem to see Waldrop as part of their future. Once Waldrop is ready they have even less reason to retain Lutz. Waldrop also seems to signify the end of Neftali Soto's career (with the Reds), IF he hasn't reached it already.
In my opinion Jesse Winker being 'a full year away' is a 40 man roster/bureaucratic/time clock issue, rather than a question of when he's the Reds' best offensive option for LF. If 2014, before his injury, and his AFL performance are any indicator he can realistically put up numbers deserving of a call-up early in 2015. But whatever, ultimately we'll have to wait and see how things unfold. As Reds fans we're not used to seeing hitting prospects of Winker's caliber. I fear that he'll tear up AAA pitching and people will demand he stay there due to irrelevant examples of other players. Like Homer Bailey, Bailey was called up too soon, so don't call up Winker at all. Billy Hamilton might have had a better rookie season if he spent more time in Louisville is another likely argument to come up, although Winker isn't Hamilton.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 16, 2014 11:11:43 GMT -5
How did Adam Dunn begin his career? 1998: 125 ABs in Rookie Ball 1999: 313 ABs in A ball 2000: 420 ABs in A ball 2001: 140 ABs in AA, 210 ABs in AAA, 244 ABs in MLB with a .371 OBP. Age 21, 4th professional season
Jesse Winker 2012: 228 ABs in Rookie Ball 2013: 417 ABs in A Ball 2014: 205 ABs in A+, 77 ABs in AA, and a wrist injury, age 21. 2015: ?
I'm not clear if lower caliber hitters like Todd Frazier, Kyle Waldrop, Billy Hamilton, Drew Stubbs, and so on are the justification for belief that Jesse Winker needs 'at least' another full year in the minors before he's ready to be promoted to MLB. I'm not advocating for him to start for the Reds on opening day, but it's not unrealistic or unreasonable for him to be deserving of an everyday job in LF by midseason. This year's wrist injury seems to be the first deviation from Adam Dunn's career path.
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Post by reds4life1986 on Oct 18, 2014 7:54:13 GMT -5
Who would you move off tje 40 man for seth m-b? Winker and SMB don't need to be added to the 40 man roster to participate in spring training. As far as whose spot on the 40 man roster they'd have to win, that'll be more clear when the Reds set a 40 man roster to protect guys from the Rule 5 draft, which they haven't done yet. Waldrop, for example, has to be protected. I think Seth Mejias-Brean has another year before he has to be protected. Current 40 man roster members who I'd consider designating for assignment, although in several cases with an interest in resigning them to minor league contracts, include Dylan Axelrod, Trevor Bell, Ryan Dennick, Logan Ondrusek, Curtis Partch, Pedro Villarreal, Jake Elmore, Donald Lutz, Neftali Soto, Jason Bourgeois, and Juan Duran. Some might argue that they'd 'lose' players to other teams, but losing Lutz (who I expect to be the main concern) doesn't seem to me like much of a concern. Ludwick, Hannahan, and Santiago's roster spots open up after the World Series ends. I think they face a big decision on whether to offer Heisey salary arbitration. Anyway, the point is, there are plenty of expendable guys on the 40 man roster, if the Reds need to open a spot. Unfortunately so far Seth Mejias-Brean is having a relatively disappointing AFL, unlike teammates Winker and Waldrop. If things keep up SMB is likely to return to AA, while Winker might get a promotion to Louisville with his Pensacola struggles being attributed to a wrist injury, rather than being overmatched. The pattern in SMB's career has been advancing and hitting well at one level per year, so maybe 2015 is SMB's to hit well at AA. Still, I look forward to seeing what he can do in spring training. The world series cant end soon enough. Im ready for offseason moves already. I might be incorrect on this, so i want your opinion. Is our answer for our bullpen issues to call on the guys we drafted? Or should there be a FA signing approach to fix the pen? I just dont want us signing FA for our bullpen, it doesnt seem to work
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 20, 2014 9:21:06 GMT -5
Winker and SMB don't need to be added to the 40 man roster to participate in spring training. As far as whose spot on the 40 man roster they'd have to win, that'll be more clear when the Reds set a 40 man roster to protect guys from the Rule 5 draft, which they haven't done yet. Waldrop, for example, has to be protected. I think Seth Mejias-Brean has another year before he has to be protected. Current 40 man roster members who I'd consider designating for assignment, although in several cases with an interest in resigning them to minor league contracts, include Dylan Axelrod, Trevor Bell, Ryan Dennick, Logan Ondrusek, Curtis Partch, Pedro Villarreal, Jake Elmore, Donald Lutz, Neftali Soto, Jason Bourgeois, and Juan Duran. Some might argue that they'd 'lose' players to other teams, but losing Lutz (who I expect to be the main concern) doesn't seem to me like much of a concern. Ludwick, Hannahan, and Santiago's roster spots open up after the World Series ends. I think they face a big decision on whether to offer Heisey salary arbitration. Anyway, the point is, there are plenty of expendable guys on the 40 man roster, if the Reds need to open a spot. Unfortunately so far Seth Mejias-Brean is having a relatively disappointing AFL, unlike teammates Winker and Waldrop. If things keep up SMB is likely to return to AA, while Winker might get a promotion to Louisville with his Pensacola struggles being attributed to a wrist injury, rather than being overmatched. The pattern in SMB's career has been advancing and hitting well at one level per year, so maybe 2015 is SMB's to hit well at AA. Still, I look forward to seeing what he can do in spring training. The world series cant end soon enough. Im ready for offseason moves already. I might be incorrect on this, so i want your opinion. Is our answer for our bullpen issues to call on the guys we drafted? Or should there be a FA signing approach to fix the pen? I just dont want us signing FA for our bullpen, it doesnt seem to workSomeone wants my opinion? ODD! After the relevant and competent bullpen arms of Chapman, Diaz, Hoover, LeCure, and Parra (and health-uncertain Marshall and Cingrani) they have a bunch of scrub options - Ben Klimesh, Kevin Shackelford, Dylan Axelrod, Villarreal, Ryan Dennick, Partch, and Ondrusek (who I hope isn't offered arbitration, but returns on a minor league deal... I think he's as good as any of these guys, albeit not much better) - all of whom I hope lose their jobs to better players, although each has an opportunity and raw skill to establish themselves as a successful reliever. I consider the Reds' legitimate pitching prospects (those who project to be good relievers) - Corcino, Contreras, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Lively, Garrett, and Carlos Gonzalez - to be more fall-back plans than plans in themselves. All those guys could use more time in the minors (and some are still being developed as starters). Other notable names like Stephenson, Moscot, and Holmberg seem almost certain to retain a starting role. If someone like Corcino or Contreras wins a bullpen role in spring training, great! But I wouldn't really bet on it. Those guys all seem very talented, but not quite ready yet, and therefore represent more of a fall-back plan. Corcino and Contreras, in particular, I expect to be successful relievers later in 2015, but they're probably best off beginning the season in Louisville's bullpen, getting used to pitching out of the bullpen after spending most of their careers as starters. At least they now both have some first-hand experience of the MLB-bullpen lifestyle, and have been able to learn a bit of what doesn't work at the MLB level, under Bryan Price's scrutiny. The status of Tony Cingrani and Sean Marshall should have a big impact on the bullpen. If Marshall is indeed healthy that's big news (not only for his arm, but also his veteran presence in what might be a young bullpen), while Cingrani's health and role can influence the team in numerous ways (including possibly changing Simon's role). Again, their health will probably be unclear (regardless of assurances to reporters that they feel fine) until they start pitching in spring training. I hope the Reds pursue inexpensive bullpen options from outside the organization any way they can. Add competition from anywhere. Free agency, waiver claims (Alfredo Simon's acquisition seems like the model), rule 5 draft, trade, anything. I don't want to see multimillion dollar multi-year contracts, but cheap and/or incentive laden one year deals to guys Price, Pico, Jocketty, and others in the organization see promise in seems like the way to go. Manny Parra's initial 1 year deal (not to be confused with his newer extension) seems like a model (even though I hated Manny Parra at the time). Zach Duke's deal with the Reds might be another model. I hope the Reds add a bunch of mediocre guys with upside, then decide which to keep during spring training. Perhaps more 1 or 2 pitch starters with incomplete repertoires, like Parra. Jocketty already implied that Kevin Shackelford, who they got for Broxton, will be one of those candidates. As far as names of acquisition candidates, I have no idea. But I think relief pitchers should have interest in coming to the Reds this year, knowing that there are openings. Things might become clearer over the next few months, but I ultimately expect the Reds to go into spring training in 2015 with a bunch of bullpen spots up for grabs between many, many candidates. I expect many more out-of-organization additions to the list of low risk/high reward scrubs than I expect to see big household names added. We've seen pitchers like Parra, Simon, Diaz, LeCure, and many others quickly rise from scrub to trusted bullpen piece, and I think it's premature to think it can't happen again in 2015. The bullpen looks like a mess, but it also looks like a big competition between a lot of promising candidates. Something like 21 candidates, at the moment (before an offseason of adding players from outside of the organization), for 12 spots, between 5 and 7 of which are seemingly locked down, depending on health.
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 20, 2014 16:39:53 GMT -5
Bill Mitchell @billazbbphotog Mesa, AZ Another outing, another 1-2-3 inning for Raisel Iglesias in #AFL debut. FB up to 97 today. Fanned last hitter on plus curveball. #Reds
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 21, 2014 15:52:03 GMT -5
Arizona Fall League @mlbazfallleague CF Jesse Winker (@reds / @bluewahoosbball) gives Surprise a 5-4 lead over Mesa with a 3-R HR OVER the berm in right field in the 3rd. #AFL14
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 22, 2014 9:09:33 GMT -5
After 8 games played it's hard to imagine how Jesse Winker could be more successful in the AFL. His .462 OBP has made a mockery of AFL pitching. It'd be nice if Waldrop could add some walks, although hitting .405 is nothing to be ashamed of - I guess it's hard to walk when you're hitting everything. Seth Mejias-Brean has had a rough time, his numbers don't look like the same guy who hit .300/.396/.476 this year in Bakersfield.
I guess Klimesh and Dennick have been positives, although I hoped Carlos Gonzalez would pitch a little better. Nick Howard and Raisel Iglesias are seemingly there more to learn than to put up numbers.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 23, 2014 11:40:56 GMT -5
Nick Howard had an ugly start in the AFL on Wednesday, giving up 5 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 3.1 innings, with 2 strikeouts. It raised his ERA to 7.84.
Waldrop went 0/4 with a strikeout, Winker 0/2 with 2 walks, and Seth Mejias-Brean went 1/3 with a walk and a run scored.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2014 6:48:25 GMT -5
For those interested in the Reds propects in the AFL or in the AFL's implementation of the pitch clock, the game on thursday night will be streamed on MLB.com and will have the Reds affiliate Surprise versus the Salt River team.
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Post by Lark11 on Oct 28, 2014 20:41:23 GMT -5
m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/99839306/reds-arizona-fall-league-overviewMLB.com Columnist Jonathan Mayo Reds Arizona Fall League overviewOutfielder Winker headlines Cincinnati's group of talented prospects honing craft with Surprise By Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com | @jonathanmayob3 | 7:50 AM ET + 1 COMMENT There were some bumps and bruises along the way, but Jesse Winker can't complain about where 2014 has taken him. The Reds' No. 2 prospect (No. 40 overall) began the year as a 20-year old in the Class A Advanced California League. He went to the Futures Game and earned a promotion to Double-A Pensacola, all before his 21st birthday. And now he's playing in the Arizona Fall League. "Once I heard my name called and the guys who are here from the Reds, it's a true honor," Winker said. "You look and see the guys who have played in the Fall League. I just want to see where we rank amongst the other teams, meet some new guys and have a lot of fun playing." Winker just loves being around the game, and there's no question being forced to the sidelines on two different occasions this season cemented that passion even further. He missed two weeks with Bakersfield when a collision with an outfield wall resulted in a concussion. Winker was just 21 games into his Double-A debut when his season ended because of a right wrist injury sustained in a car accident. Winker actually tried to play through the aches and pains after the accident, playing in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game banged up before getting diagnosed with a partial tendon tear in his hand and being shut down just one game after returning from Minneapolis. He was just getting accustomed to the new level and he's excited for the challenge of returning there next year as well as getting a similar experience playing for the Surprise Saguaros this fall. "The defense got a whole lot better," Winker said. "The defenders got to everything, it seemed like. The pitchers had a better idea of what they wanted to do on the mound. "That just makes it better. I feel every level you go up, there's going to be a competition, guys are going to get better. That's something I look forward to, I guess say rise to the occasion and learn the adjustments and continue to play hard." If he didn't have time to make adjustments with Pensacola, Winker appears to be making them in the AFL. The outfielder hit .348/.446/.630 over his first 12 games, was tied for second in RBIs and stood fourth in OPS. But it's more than just his hitting Winker wants to work on during his time in Arizona. "All aspects of my game," Winker said. "I want to keep making strides in the box, keep making strides in the outfield, especially on the basepaths, too. I want to get a little more aggressive on the bases and continue to polish my game." Winker's offensive game has a good amount of polish already. The 2012 supplemental first-round pick has a .297/.401/.489 career line in his pro career, always playing young for his level. The one part of his game that is still developing is his power, and some wonder just how much will be there when all is said and done. To his credit, it's not something Winker worries too much about. Even when he was surrounded by the plus-plus power of Joey Gallo and Kris Bryant at the Futures Game, he didn't get lost in trying to muscle up and get out of his own game. "I knew just going out and shagging, watching them hit; it was going to be an absolutely power show," Winker said. "I played with Joe on Team USA and I saw it then. It was unbelievable, he was hitting them into the third deck, by the Jumbotron, it was really cool. "But I know my game. Even though I may not be able to hit it into the third deck, I get it into the first or the second and that counts, too. It's really cool, but I enjoy spraying the ball to left field and hitting the gaps as well." Reds hitters in the AFL• Third baseman Seth Mejias-Brean also made it to Double-A this year for the first time. He's shown an ability to hit for average and get on base (.376 career OBP). How much power he can develop may determine whether he can stick as an everyday corner infielder at the highest level. • On the taxi squad and thus only eligible to play on Wednesdays and Saturdays, Juan Perez began focusing on second base after primarily being a shortstop in the early stages of his career. Perez has played second in the AFL and best profiles as a utilityman with some base stealing instincts. • Outfielder Kyle Waldrop repeated the California League to start the 2014 season, but he made adjustments and hit his way to Double-A, where he continued to swing a hot bat. Waldrop is seeing more time at first base, along with his usual corner outfield spots, this fall, with the power potential to profile in any of those spots well. Reds pitchers in the AFL • Taken in the Triple-A phase of the 2012 Rule 5 Draft, lefty reliever Ryan Dennick made his big league debut this past September. The 27-year-old moved to the pen this season and took to it well, with a 2.34 ERA compiled almost entirely in Triple-A. Lefties hit just .209 against Dennick at that level in '14, and a future as a specialist looms. • The Reds took Nick Howard out of the University of Virginia with their first-round pick in the 2014 Draft. Ranked No. 5 on their Top 20 list, Howard served as Virginia's closer this season, but he is being developed as a starter. He has the stuff and potential command to stick in a rotation long term. • Reliever Carlos Gonzalez took a step forward in 2014, moving up to Double-A with moderate success, albeit with some command issues. He has a big arm with a fastball that hits the mid-90s. He's continuing to work on tightening his breaking ball while auditioning this fall for a 40-man roster spot or Rule 5 selection. • Ben Klimesh is one more reliever in the Surprise bullpen this fall. He reached Double-A for the first time in 2014. The 15th-rounder in '12 does miss bats (11.2 K/9 in '14), and the Fall League is another good test to see how Klimesh's fastball-slider combination will play at the upper levels. Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLBPipeline.com and writes a blog, B3. Follow @jonathanmayob3 on Twitter. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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Post by redsfanman on Oct 29, 2014 8:34:11 GMT -5
It's nice that everyone who sees and writes about Jesse Winker seems to stress his ability to learn and make adjustments, much like Joey Votto, rather than entrenched in his ways like many other players. They also always make Winker sound like a nice person and interesting interview candidates (while Votto is just a boring person, when you focus on his personality rather than his performance).
Regarding Seth Mejias-Brean, it seems like his ability to keep up his high OBP is just as relevant as improving his power. If he can keep up the ~.300 average ~.380 OBPs he put up in Billings (2012), Dayton (2013), and Bakersfield (2014) at higher levels he'll likely get a chance in MLB some day. His 65 games in AA Pensacola this season were the first time he's struggled in his 4 year career. He doesn't seem to have a future as a power hitter, but that doesn't mean he can't be a valuable hitter.
It's hard to believe Carlos Gonzalez wouldn't be added to the 40 man roster and protected from the Rule 5 draft, regardless of his performance in the AFL.
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Post by bobroberts on Oct 29, 2014 8:51:13 GMT -5
Bill Mitchell @billazbbphotog Mesa, AZ Another outing, another 1-2-3 inning for Raisel Iglesias in #AFL debut. FB up to 97 today. Fanned last hitter on plus curveball. #Reds Really looking forward to seeing this guy pitch. If this years playoffs have taught us anything, it's that a hard throwing bullpen is key to advancing. Chapman, Iglesias, and Diez all fit in that mold.
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Post by kinsm on Nov 2, 2014 22:22:22 GMT -5
Bill Mitchell @billazbbphotog Mesa, AZ Another outing, another 1-2-3 inning for Raisel Iglesias in #AFL debut. FB up to 97 today. Fanned last hitter on plus curveball. #Reds Really looking forward to seeing this guy pitch. If this years playoffs have taught us anything, it's that a hard throwing bullpen is key to advancing. Chapman, Iglesias, and Diez all fit in that mold. --Mark Sheldon *Cuban RHP Raisel Iglesias is no longer going to pitch winter ball in Puerto Rico as the Reds had originally planned, they will keep him in Arizona over the winter to monitor the innings on his arm. <<<I hope that means they think he's ready to make this club out of ST.
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