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Post by floydgator on May 8, 2014 8:55:44 GMT -5
It is a complete waste of time for this guy to facing overmatched kids in A ball. He has got to be moved up. There are 10+ rotation spots in AA and AAA and only 1 of those spots is taken by a guy with any business blocking Lively. The rotation in Louisville is an entire collection of stiffs.
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Post by redsfanman on May 9, 2014 14:08:19 GMT -5
Mike Leake was a 1st round starter, why on earthy would Jocketty waste such a blooming talent bringing him up to pitch out of the pen? Good lord, Cueto-Leake-Latos are all destined for free agency in 18 months leave the damn kid in the minors starting! Tony Cingrani was a 3rd round draft pick in 2011 and made his MLB debut out of the bullpen in 2012. Cingrani began 2012 in the Bakerfield's rotation, where he made 10 starts, then after 15 in Pennsacola he was promoted into the Reds' rotation. Ben Lively was a 4th round draft pick in 2013 and I don't think him making his MLB debut out of the bullpen in 2014 is unreasonable. His dominance in single A has been even greater than Cingrani's in 2012. You're right, Leake didn't pitch out of the bullpen, instead he made the team on opening day right after being drafted and hasn't looked back. Right now the Reds' immediate pitching priority seems to be the bullpen, which is different from when Leake arrived. Making a debut as a reliever worked out fine for Cingrani, the next spring he returned to the starting rotation and was quickly in the Reds' rotation. I don't think Lively pitching out of the bullpen a bit would be the end of his career as a starter. The Cardinals have used a lot of talented young could-be starting pitchers out of their bullpen and usually don't block them once they're ready. At this rate Lively might be ready to improve the Reds' bullpen in a couple of months.
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Post by redsfanman on May 9, 2014 14:22:45 GMT -5
Updated stats on Ben Lively, through his May 7 start: 6-0 record in 7 starts, 0.63 ERA through 42.2 innings, 23 hits, 3 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 54 Ks. Opponents hitting .154 against him.
The guy has twice as many wins as he has walks. He has as many wins (6) as he has runs and walks combined.
In 2012 Cingrani was stuck in Bakersfield for 10 starts. I agree that Lively deserves to be promoted to AA ASAP.
I disagree that only 1 guy between AA and AAA has 'any business blocking Lively', I think that's an exaggeration, but that they can certainly find room for him. Jon Moscot in AA might be a bit of a surprise, but he and Mike Lorenzen both look like they might deserve to be promoted out of AA sooner rather than later. Stephenson is Stephenson, of course. I don't think Carlos Contreras (who seems to be injured) or Corcino should be written off though. That's 3, 4, or 5. Louisville has plenty of open spots in the rotation, of course.
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Post by floydgator on May 9, 2014 15:53:59 GMT -5
Updated stats on Ben Lively, through his May 7 start: 6-0 record in 7 starts, 0.63 ERA through 42.2 innings, 23 hits, 3 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 54 Ks. Opponents hitting .154 against him. The guy has twice as many wins as he has walks. He has as many wins (6) as he has runs and walks combined. In 2012 Cingrani was stuck in Bakersfield for 10 starts. I agree that Lively deserves to be promoted to AA ASAP. I disagree that only 1 guy between AA and AAA has 'any business blocking Lively', I think that's an exaggeration, but that they can certainly find room for him. Jon Moscot in AA might be a bit of a surprise, but he and Mike Lorenzen both look like they might deserve to be promoted out of AA sooner rather than later. Stephenson is Stephenson, of course. I don't think Carlos Contreras (who seems to be injured) or Corcino should be written off though. That's 3, 4, or 5. Louisville has plenty of open spots in the rotation, of course. None of those guys should be written off (well, I've given up on Corcino) but none of them save Stephenson and MAYBE Lorenzen should be viewed as a reason to block Lively. Doesn't matter though. You could take all the guys and still have plenty of rotation room for Lively. Either give somebody the boot to the bullpen or move one of Moscot, Corcino, or Lorenzen up.
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Post by Lark11 on May 9, 2014 16:26:52 GMT -5
Updated stats on Ben Lively, through his May 7 start: 6-0 record in 7 starts, 0.63 ERA through 42.2 innings, 23 hits, 3 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 54 Ks. Opponents hitting .154 against him. The guy has twice as many wins as he has walks. He has as many wins (6) as he has runs and walks combined. In 2012 Cingrani was stuck in Bakersfield for 10 starts. I agree that Lively deserves to be promoted to AA ASAP. I disagree that only 1 guy between AA and AAA has 'any business blocking Lively', I think that's an exaggeration, but that they can certainly find room for him. Jon Moscot in AA might be a bit of a surprise, but he and Mike Lorenzen both look like they might deserve to be promoted out of AA sooner rather than later. Stephenson is Stephenson, of course. I don't think Carlos Contreras (who seems to be injured) or Corcino should be written off though. That's 3, 4, or 5. Louisville has plenty of open spots in the rotation, of course. None of those guys should be written off (well, I've given up on Corcino) but none of them save Stephenson and MAYBE Lorenzen should be viewed as a reason to block Lively. Doesn't matter though. You could take all the guys and still have plenty of rotation room for Lively. Either give somebody the boot to the bullpen or move one of Moscot, Corcino, or Lorenzen up. I haven't heard anyone raise this particular issue, so I'll do it. Does anyone find it slightly odd that Michael Lorenzen is in double-A while Ben Lively is in high-A? That's not a knock on Lorenzen, who I think has a higher ceiling and lower floor than Lively, but why would they be so aggressive with a pitcher has so little experience pitching? Do they fear that his fastball will simply overpower A-ball hitters, so he needs to be facing more advanced hitters to force him to develop? I've never fully understood their handling of Lorenzen. Obviously, no one expected Lively to be THIS good, so starting him in A-ball doesn't seem inappropriate.
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Post by franchise513 on May 9, 2014 17:08:34 GMT -5
None of those guys should be written off (well, I've given up on Corcino) but none of them save Stephenson and MAYBE Lorenzen should be viewed as a reason to block Lively. Doesn't matter though. You could take all the guys and still have plenty of rotation room for Lively. Either give somebody the boot to the bullpen or move one of Moscot, Corcino, or Lorenzen up. I haven't heard anyone raise this particular issue, so I'll do it. Does anyone find it slightly odd that Michael Lorenzen is in double-A while Ben Lively is in high-A? That's not a knock on Lorenzen, who I think has a higher ceiling and lower floor than Lively, but why would they be so aggressive with a pitcher has so little experience pitching? Do they fear that his fastball will simply overpower A-ball hitters, so he needs to be facing more advanced hitters to force him to develop? I've never fully understood their handling of Lorenzen. Obviously, no one expected Lively to be THIS good, so starting him in A-ball doesn't seem inappropriate. I am in the same boat, and I think that if he was not succeeding like he is currently, there would be more people asking about it. Just an interesting note about Lorenzen, in their game last night, after allowing the first four baserunners of the game to reach, he sent down 20 straight on his way to giving up 3 hits and a run in 7 innings of work.
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Post by redsfanman on May 9, 2014 17:54:19 GMT -5
Regarding Ben Lively and Mike Lorenzen, Lively was used as a starter all last year and supposedly has 4 pitches - none of which are exceptional - that he can throw for strikes. They kept him in rookie ball last year for 12 starts, before sending him to Dayton (for 1 start), and then this spring sending him to Bakersfield in another step up. He practically skipped Dayton, and is likely to be headed to Pensacola soon. It seems like a pretty traditional path for a MLB starting pitcher.
Lorenzen, according to his scouting report, was basically a 2 pitch pitcher last year, and spent the whole season in the bullpen, rapidly climbing from rookie ball to Pensacola. He probably faces the same uncertainty as Tony Cingrani, with people unsure if his future is as a starter or a closer. For whatever reason they chose to keep him in Pensacola for his big test of becoming a starting pitcher. As has been said, I assume they know he has as couple of pitches that can get single A hitters out, and they want him to work on other pitches in AA.
I think Lorenzen was seen like Leake as far as being a draft pick who could be ready quickly, but like Cingrani or Chapman in that the team was uncertain of just what role he'd fall into. Lively's seems like a guy who has to hope he can succeed as a starting pitcher.... sorta like, uh, David Holmberg or Daniel Corcino... or Leake and Bronson Arroyo... because if he fails as a starter his stuff might not project to making him a good reliever. Just my impression, of course. In other words I toss Lively in with Leake and Arroyo, whose careers depend on their abilities to start, while Lorenzen fits in with Chapman and Cingrani as a guy who will have a long and successful career in the bullpen if starting doesn't work out.
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Post by kinsm on May 13, 2014 23:08:28 GMT -5
Had a horrible start tonight, 4 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings with only 7 strikeouts. He allowed 1 earned run which was enough to get him his first loss of the season, since he had zero run support. In fact Bakersfield got NO HIT tonight! So Reds pitchers all around get no offensive help.
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Post by floydgator on May 14, 2014 8:17:58 GMT -5
wasting time
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Post by kinsm on May 18, 2014 17:26:12 GMT -5
With the OAK claim of Francis today - that could be the move that allows a Lively promotion. It'll be interesting to see how they fill the holes. I wouldn't be shocked to see someone in the AAA bullpen fill in to that slot but you could see a cascading effect of promotions.
Perhaps something like this:
Moscot from AA to AAA Lively from A+ to AA Travieso from A to A+
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Post by kinsm on May 18, 2014 18:27:55 GMT -5
Yet another disappointing start today for Lively.
The Stockton Ports managed to get an astounding 5 hits (and 2 walks) off of him - he ultimately gave up 1 earned run in 7 innings.
He's in line to pick up his 7th win through his first 9 starts if the pen doesn't blow up (the 7 wins go with 1 loss on the year in which he gave up 1 run and Bakersfield was no hit).
He's now given up 5 earned runs in 55 2/3rds total innings this season - an ERA of 0.81
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Post by floydgator on May 19, 2014 10:00:44 GMT -5
wasting time
Agree with bumping Moscot (or Corcino) to AAA and Lively to AA.
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Post by kinsm on May 24, 2014 0:52:53 GMT -5
Lively picked up his 8th win tonight. 4 H's - 2 BB's - 8 K's - 5 1/3 IP.
He allowed two earned runs including a solo shot in the first inning to D.J. Peterson (the 12th overall pick in last years' draft).
He was removed in the sixth inning after walking Peterson.
His ERA jumps to 1.03
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Post by floydgator on May 28, 2014 11:30:19 GMT -5
Back to rookie ball!
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Post by kinsm on May 29, 2014 5:43:56 GMT -5
Had his worst start of his pro career last night. He got a no decision after giving up 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Most of the damage came in the third inning when he gave up 4 back to back hits to the outfield. Total: 7 H's, 4 BB's, 6 K's
Nobody is perfect.
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