Barry Larkin wants a Ring - July 22, 2000

[dukecrunchybagel]

THE REAL-LIFE STORY:

On July 22, 2000, Jim Bowden made a deal he didn’t want to make. Faced with the contract constraints of recently arrived superstar centerfield Ken Griffey Junior, Barry Larkin’s pending free agency, and with the Reds going into that night’s game against Geraldo Guzman and the first place Diamondbacks playing only .500 ball, five games behind the Giants for a wildcard birth and six behind the Central leading Cardinals, he dealt future Hall of Famer and team captain Larkin to the New York Mets. The Reds were five games out in the wildcard race, and there was little flexibility to add enough talent to get the Reds the talent to compete against teams like the Braves, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Mets. Ten days earlier, Bowden started the sell-off which go on through the 2001 offseason, dealing star starting pitcher (and also impending free agent) Denny Neagle to the Yankees, and getting what on paper was a superb package – Neagle and outfielder Mike Frank , an outfielder who fell apart after a brief 1998 call-up, in exchange for third baseman Drew Henson (#3 Yankee prospect after Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano), outfielder Jackson Melian (#5), starter Ed Yarnall (#6), and reliever Brian Reith, who was having a fine year in the Florida State League: Hensen #24, Yarnall #55, and Melian #72 were all in Baseball America’s Top 100 ranking for 2000. In reality, the trade was a bust all around – Neagle made 15 starts for the Yankees with a 5.81 ERA (7-7), and the best guy the Reds got ended up being the unranked reliever Reith, who would end up making 73 uninspiring (to be charitable) appearances between 2001 and 2004.

Steve Phillips and the Mets were going somewhere. Ten games over .500, five behind the Braves and half a game behind the Giants, Phillips was quite concerned over the shortstop situation. They had signed young three-time golden glove winner (1987-9) Rey Ordonez to a 4 year $25M deal, despite having only one year with an OPS over .580. Problem was Ordonez was out for the rest of the year with a broken arm, and Phillips was convinced that Kurt Abbott and Melvin Mora would not do if they planned to make a serious October run; hence the deal for Larkin. The Mets best prospect was outfielder Alex Escobar, ranked #34 by Baseball America, a five-tool outfielder of the type that gave Bowden hot and sweaty dreams. Overhyped like all New York prospects, the Mets didn’t want to deal Escobar but Bowden hung tough. A deal was made, and the Mets had a seventy-hour window to convince Larkin to come to Shea Stadium and vie for a ring. The exact contents of the deal were never disclosed – the best guess is that the Mets would part with Escobar and a couple of minor-league pitchers.

Larkin wanted to retire a Red. He had five-and-ten rights and made public statements through his agent, Eric Goldschmidt, about how he didn’t want to leave the Reds, and he would only agree to a trade if Reds were clear that they weren’t planning on resigning him for 2001. Goldschmidt intimated that it might also be a possibility if the Mets were to sign Larkin. Former Reds Lenny Harris and John Franco called Barry to convince to come to Shea. Phillips however is firm – they’ve tied up a good deal of money in Ordonez and are looking to sign free-agent-to-be Alex Rodriguez. Larkin will only be a rent-a-vet.

In the end, it was never quite clear if the Reds were genuine about trading Larkin because they inked Larkin to a three-year $27M less than twenty-four hours after he invoked his five-and-ten rights and vetoed the deal. The Mets instead dealt infielder Melvin Mora with three minor leaguers, pitchers Pat Gorman and Lesile Brea, and first baseman, Mike Kinkade, for Orioles’ s shortstop Mike Bordick, who would be a solid if unspectacular shortstop for the Mets, who would go on to win the NL Pennant and lose to the Subway Series to the Yankees in five games.
Bowden, on the other hand, was left with the challenge of running a team with an approximately $55M payroll budget having 38% of its payroll tied up in two players (Larkin & Griffey). It was a challenge that Bowden was ultimately not able to meet.

THE CHANGE:
In a conversation with Reds president John Allen, Bowden convinces him not to extend Larkin; he can’t commit so much of his payroll to Larkin while also shelling out big money to Junior. Allen contacts Eric Goldschmidt to let him know that it really is time for Larkin to move on – his days in Cincinnati at coming to an end. Larkin agrees to the deal, and Alex Escobar, right handed reliever Tyler Walker (having an excellent year for the Mets AA franchise at Binghamton), and #7 prospect righty Leslie Brea go to the Reds.

With Larkin gone, Bowden decides its rebuilding team.

THE SCENARIO:
I’ve picked out five other deals that JB could have made between July 25 and 31. I’ll give each a 10% chance of getting done each day. (For those of you mathematically challenged, that gives a probability 42.46% of any one deal getting done – in a sample of twenty tries, an average of 3.3 acceptances occurred). For multiple acceptances, I will randomly select which day the deal is made.

The July 26 deal of Manny Aybar to the Marlins and the Aug 30 deal of Dante Bichette to the Red Sox will occur as historical. The August 6 deal for Brian Hunter will not (the Reds are not trying to compete any more). Reds decisions during the offseason will most likely happen as historical; I'll make provisions for any of the five possible deals above actually take place.

Melvin Mora & Mike Kinkade stay with the Mets. Mike Bordick stays with the Orioles, where he is resigned during the offseason.

Barry Larkin will leave the Mets as a free agent and be signed by another team. I’ve already determined which team it is, but we’ll leave it for a surprise. This will effect one other trade that occurred that winter.

All other transactions will occur as historically happened through the offseason, unless it directly ties back to any of the changes from any of the above.

I’ll include software and options selected in my next post.

[Lark11]

Good stuff already.

I had forgotten that Mike Frank was included in the Neagle deal. I always had reasonably high hopes for Frank. Also forgot how quickly the contract extension got done after the trade was rejected.

[dukecrunchybagel]

With the Larkin deal complete, Reds GM Jim Bowden gets to work. He’s planted the seeds for many other possible deals. Having convinced Carl Lindner and John Allen of the need to put the Reds into full blown rebuilding mold, he places a call to Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, who is already upset about the Mets stealing the trading limelight with the Larkin deal. Steinbrenner is convinced the Yankees need to upgrade at DH. He had been talking to the Devil Rays about a deal for Jose Canseco, but when offered Dmitri Young, Steinbrenner was besides himself. Sure the price was steep, and Brian Cashman adamant about not paying it, but that’s why Steinbrenner was the boss. Despite his misgivings, Cashman sends highly regarded infielder Alfonso Soriano and right hander Ryan Bradley to the Reds for Da Meat Hook on July 25. Pokey Reese moves over to SS and Soriano immediately becomes the Reds starting second baseman. Soriano goes three for five in his Reds debut, an 8-6 twelve inning victory over the Rockies, Keith Glauber gets the win. Meanwhile, Barry Larkin goes two-for-five with three runs and a double in his debut for the Mets at Three Rivers Stadium as the Mets destroy the Pirates 14-5 (Mike Hampton over Kris Benson).

The next day, reliever Manny Aybar is dealt to the Marlins for Jorge Cordova (this deal is historical). The deal is greatly overshadowed by Curt Schilling being dealt to the Diamondbacks for 1B Travis Lee, and pitchers Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, & Vincente Padilla. Other deals this day include Ismael Valdes returning to the Dodgers from the Cubs for Jamie Arnold, Jorge Piedra, and cash; OF Rob Ducey going from the Phillies to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer John Sneed, and the Giants getting starter Eric Gunderson back from the Blue Jays for future considerations. On the diamond, Rob Bell gets lit up for six runs; the Reds lose 10-5 to the Brewers. Dmitri Young draws the collar in his debut in Pinstripes as the Yankees get rolled by the Indians 10-3, Jamie Navarro beating Orlando Hernandez.

On the 27th, Bowden continues the fire sale, dealing left-handed outfielder Michael Tucker, pitcher Pedro Minaya, and shortstop Wilmy Caceras to the Anaheim Angels for pitcher Seth Etherton. This clears the way for Alex Escobar to be the everyday rightfielder. The Angels went with Tucker over ex-Red Ron Gant (in RL – Gant went to the Angels for Kent Bottenfield on July 29th). In a blackbuster of little consequence, the Rockies shipped second baseman Mike Lansing, starter Rolando Arrojo, reliever Rick Croushore, and cash to the Red Sox for reliever John Wasdin and three prospects – infielder Jeff Frye, pitcher Jeff Taglianti and the once-quite-highly-regarded Brian Rose. On the field, the Reds bats goes crazy against Jeff D’Amico and the Brewers with five dingers: two for Griffey, one each for Benito Santiago, Alex Ochoa, and D. T. Cromer. It's a 12-3 shellacking; knuckle baller Jared Fernandez gets a win in his first start. (5 IP, 5H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 WK).

Bowden sits tight for the next three days. On the 28th the A’s deal southpaw prospect Jesus Colome (their #3 prospect) to the Devil Rays for pitcher Todd Belitz and reliever Jim Mecir. The Angels exchange prospects with the Cubs. The Indians make three different deals to beef up their staff and their bench -- dealing recently acquired outfielder Ricky Ledee to the Rangers for slugger David Segui; outfielder Alex Ramirez and infielder Enrique Wilson get sent to the Pirates for utility man Wil Cordero; and finally, 1B Richie Sexson, pitching prospects Kane Davis and Paul Rigdon, and the ubiquitous player to be named later (Marco Scutaro) to the Brewers for a trio of aging pitchers – starters Ricky Bones and Steve Woodard, and closer Bob Wickman. Finally, the Mets follow suit sending two of their better prospects – pitcher Paul Wilson and outfielder Jason Tyner to the Devil Rays for outfielder Bubba Trammell and reliever Rick White. The Reds take the rubber game of their series with the Brewers with a 4-3 squeaker. Dante Bichette launches a three-run shot in the first, but the Reds get the winning run on a sixth-inning solo shot by Ken Griffey Jr. Harnisch gets the win (his final one for the Reds as it turns out), Williamson the save, and Jimmy Haynes suffers the loss. (In real life, the Mike Bordick deal for Melvin Mora was also done on this day). Michael Tucker debuts for the Angels in LF, going one-for-three with a double, a walk, a run scored, and an RBI.

More deals on the 29th – Two by the Orioles – reliever Mike Timlin goes to the Cardinals for 1B-OF Chris Richard and minor-league pitcher Mike Nussbeck in the first deal, and in the second veteran catcher Charles Johnson and DH Harold Baines go to the White Sox for catcher Brook Fordyce and three prospects that never get to the Bigs. The Pirates dealt reliever Jason Christiason to the Cardinals for shortstop prospect Jack Wilson, and the Giants dealt prospect Scott Linebrink to the Astros for veteran reliever Doug Henry. The Reds are off today. (In real life another deal was made – the Angels sent wash-upped starter Kent Bottenfield, the prize of their preseason Jim Edmonds to the Cardinals deal to the Phillies for equally washed-upped outfielder Ron Gant – with Michael Tucker on board, there is no longer a reason for the Angels to make this deal).

No deals at all on the 30th The Reds get shut out by a trio of Dodgers pitchers – led by swingman starter Terry Adams, followed by Greg Olson, and Jeff Shaw, 3-0, with Osvaldo Fernandez suffering the loss. Alex Escobar is still hitless as the Reds new lead-off hitter.

Finally, the fianl hours before the trade deadline see an even more intense feeding frenzy. The Orioles send 1B Will Clark to the Cardinals for 1B-3B Eddie Leon (a deal that in real life will help them win the NL Central). The Rockies deal speedy outfielder Tom Goodwin back to the Dodgers for OF and former ROY Todd Hollandsworth and a couple of minor league pitchers. The Mets send starter Anthony Schumaker to the Orioles for a minor leaguer, Juan Arecena. The Expos sent outfielder Rondell White to the Cubs for southpaw Scott Downs. The Devil Rays deal reliever Mark Guthrie and starter Steve Traschel to the Blue Jays for infielder Brent Abenathy. The Padres deal catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utility infielder for reliever Heatchliff Slocumb and outfielder Ben Johnson. The Braves turn a blockbuster, sending outfielder Trent Hubbard, catcher Fernando Lunar, and righty Luis Hernandez for 3B-OF B. J. Surhoff and reliever Gabe Molina. The Padres deal outfielder Al Martin to the Mariners for reliever Tom Davey and outfielder John Mabry. The Cubs trade LF Henry Rodriguez to the Marlins for 1B Ross Gload and a minor leaguer. The Twins trade 1B Mario Valdez to the A’s for catcher Danny Ardoin. The Royals unload reliever Jay Witasik to the Padres for reliever Brian Meadows. Bowden gets in the acts with two important deals, sending catcher Benito Santiago to the Giants for starter Joe Nathan, and staff ace Pete Harnisch to the A’s for five-tool outfielder Eric Byrnes and reliever Luis Vizcaino. On the field, Jason LaRue, just called up to replace the departing Benito Santiago, hits a twelfth-inning solo home run against Jeff Shaw to give the Reds a 5-4 victory. Danny Graves get the win, Keith Glauber his first save.

Since joining their new teams, Dmitri Young is 5-25, all singles; Larkin is 6-20 with a double and 3 RBIs, Michael Tucker 5-14, with a 2B, 2 Runs, and 2 RBIs.

STANDINGS (Contenders):
AL West – Mariners 61-43, Angels 58-49, A’s 54-50
AL Central – White Sox 64-41, Indians 55-49
AL East – Yankees 56-45, Red Sox 56-47, Toronto 53-51

NL West – DBacks 60-46, Giants 58-45, Dodgers 56-49, Rockies 52-51
NL Central – Cardinals 58-45, Reds 54-51,
NL East – Braves 64-32, Mets 58-45, Marlins 53-52


COMMENTARY:
Dmitri Young to the Yankees is a not just a speculative deal. The Yankees were looking to boost their DH spot, eventually they’d settle on picking up Jose Canseco on waivers, signing the released Luis Polonia, and Glenallen Hill, just acquired from the Cubs. The Reds were discussing a deal for Soriano during the 2001 offseason for Pokey Reese. How close they got was a matter of conjecture. As to Steinbrenner overruling Cashman by trading one of their top prospects, just such a scenario unfolded two years later, when Steinbrenner had the Yankees part with Brandon Claussen (and Charlie Manning) for Aaron Boone.

The Tucker deal to the Angels is basically a reshaping of an actual deal that occurred during the offseason when the Reds dealt Caceras to the Angels for Etherton. Since this deal is occurring earlier before the full extent of Etherton’s injury is known, the Reds have to pay a steeper price – including Tucker and Amaya, who was the Reds #9 prospect the year before and was in the process of flaming out in the Florida State League.

Santiago would actually play for the Giants after leaving the Reds as a free agent and would be their starter from 2001-3. The Giants were in a pennant race with Bobby Estalella and Doug Mirabelli as their catchers, so this deal makes sense for them. As to Nathan, recall that in 2000, he was a fairly unsuccessful starter with a 5-2 record, 5.21 ERA, and 1.629 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9; it wasn’t until 2003 just before the infamous A. J. Pierzynski deal that he started to actually be a top reliever. Still he had decent stuff and would be reasonable return for a veteran catcher.

Harnisch was still a serviceable pitcher in 2000. Of the big 3, only Zito was Big at that point. Gil Heredia was the ace, followed by Kevin Appier, then Zito and Hudson. Harnisch actually could have fit in. To be honest, I might not have gone this direction had the Gammons article not mentioned that Bowden had spoken to Beane about such a deal. Byrnes was the higher regarded of the two prospects I have the Reds acquiring and was far below most of the other A’s prospects at this point. Vizcaino was a year away from the Bigs, save a cup of coffee in September.

Bowden ends up with one big win (Young for Soriano), a marginal win (Harnisch for Vizcaino & Byrnes), one too soon to determine (Santiago for Nathan – depends if Nathan remains an ineffective starter), a marginal loss (Tucker for Etherton), and a big loss (Larkin for Escobar). That seems a reasonable success rate to me.

SOFTWARE SETTINGS:
Software Used: Baseball Mogul 2011 (version 13.08)
Historical 2000 Database
Manager level of difficulty
Historical rookies – don’t randomize players
Player setting – use historical career paths

Note – Baseball Mogul does not use historical schedules. I will use the BM2011 schedule for this thread.

[dukecrunchybagel]

Barry Larkin reached a milestone but in a strange new uniform on Aug. 4. In the third inning of a blowout, Larkin blooped a fastball from Padre reliever Tom Davey into left-center field for his 2,000th hit. The hit scored Tsuyigo Shinjo from third base, making the score 9-1. The hit kept the Padres from sweeping the Mets. Larkin is 11-40 for his new team. Now 59-48, the Mets are half a game ahead of the Dodgers for the Wild Card.

Despite the fire sale, the Reds continue at just above .500 pace at 55-53.which actually still has them in wildcard contention. Alex Escobar finally starts hitting going 7-27 since the trade, while Soriano is 11-40. Joe Nathan went 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6K as the loser against the Dodgers on Aug. 1.

Other ex-Reds:
Dmitri Young 6-29 1 HR
Michael Tucker 6-22
Benito Santiago 7-15
Pete Harnisch 7 IP 7H 1 ER 9K vs. the Angels on Aug. 3 for the win

Current Reds lineup:

RF – Escobar
2B – Soriano
1B – Casey
CF – Griffey
LF – Bichette
3B – Boone
SS – Reese
C -- Taubansee (vs. RHP)/Larue (vs. LHP)

Rotation – Dessens, Fernandez, Nathan, Parris, Villone

[Lark11]

Nicely done, DCB! Lots of names (Brent Abernathy, Danny Ardoin, Jay Witasik, etc) that have slipped from memory. Also, nice job with the context and recreating the 2000 season.

I'd have to imagine that this scenario would be Bowden's dream. Getting to wheel-and-deal would seem to be right up his alley. It's difficult to remember how each was actually valued at the time, but you really think that Dmitri would fetch Soriano in trade? Undeniably, that was a time when the Yankees weren't very interested in developing and promoting homegrown talent, but seems like Dmitri would fall short of Soriano in a trade.

Also, interesting to note that the vast majority of the traded prospects amounted to nothing. Easy to dream on prospect potential, but most of them never approach their 100% projection. I've never been a big Eric Byrnes fan, but maybe having him in the Reds outfield would make me reconsider Captain America and his gnarly hustle.

I'll be very interested to see if Larkin makes the difference for the Mets down the stretch. And, hopefully, the Reds put in some work on their rotation, which in true Bowden fashion is atrocious!

Anyway, keep up the good work!!

[dukecrunchybagel]

Thanks, I'm glado you're enjoying it

I recall remembering that I really hated the Neagle deal at the time; looking back at it, JB actually did a pretty decent haul in theory - landing three of the Yankees top ten prospects! Unfortunately, they were at the whismy of our truly awful farm system at the time, and we ended up getting nothing for Neagle.
At least the Yankees had the sense to let the Rox overpay for him.

I've tried to challeng myself to look at the facts as I can best guess that Bowden had at the time as opposed to rewriting history so that everything the Reds do works out.

Dmitri Young was in the middle of a very fine season -- 18 HR, 88 RBI, .303/.346/.491, and would, in theory of have been a very desirable commodity, especially at DH. The Yankees were really searching for a DH (they would end up with a platton of Glenallen Hill & Jose Canseco). As to the availability of Soriano, that is ended quite speculative; supposedly, JB wanted him in the Neagle deal. At the time, Soriano was the #2 prospect for the Yankees (after Nick Johnson); I don't think Cashman would made the trade, but there's the Steinbrenner factor. I certainly think it was within the realm of possibility.

And of course, depending on who you believe Soriano nearly became a Red over the winter:

articles.sun-sentinel.com/2001-05-20/sports/0105190380_1_alfonso-soriano-spring-training-second-base

We'll have to see about Byrnes -- in typical JB fashion we once again have way too many outfielders - we added Escobar in the Larkin deal, Kearns & Dunn are soon to join the team, and Alex Ochoa is still on the roster. And there's still Brady Clark...

[dukecrunchybagel]

Most fans expected the Reds to fold up and die after their great fire sale. Yet somehow through dogged determination or possibly the appreciation of great start the Reds defied odds and stayed in contention through August. The only explanation that seemed to make sense was clutch hitting and a great bullpen -- John Riedling was the weakest of the bunch a 4.38 ERA and .238 OBA. Almost all the rest were superb – Danny Graves 3.22 ERA, .273 OBA, Mark Wohlers 3.27 ERA .205 OBA, Keith Glauber 2.63 ERA .204 OBA, Hector Mercado 1.38 ERA, .240 OBA, and Scott Williamson 3.55 ERA, .188 OBA. Scott Sullivan’s numbers 10.00 ERA and a .278 were distorted by a couple of bad outings. But the bullpen was being used to the point of exhaustion – outside of solid performances by Oswaldo Fernandez, garnering 3 victories during August, the rest of the staff was good news/bad news performances – Elmer Dessens had three bad starts to one good one never lasting more than 6 2/3 innings; likewise Steve Parris who was either brilliant (Aug 19 vs. Rox 7.1 7 H 2 ER 0 BB 7 K) or just plain awful (Aug 14 vs. Cards 2.2 6 5 1 3), and Ron Villone who just plain bad. Newcomer Joe Nathan was particularly Jeckyll-or-Hyde on his way to three loses for the month despite two very good starts (7 4 1 3 7 - Aug 10 vs. DBacks, and 7.2 5 1 4 9 – Aug 24 vs. Mets).

Offensively, the Reds bats consisted of Ken Griffey Jr 8 HRs, .314/.478/.686, Eddie Taubansee 6 HRs .300/.349/.650 (platooned with Larue), and surprisingly utility infielder Mike Bell .378/.439/.514 in limited appearances and not much else. The newcomers were particularly disappointing with Alex Escobar putting up a .208/.320/.256 line with one dinger and Alfonso Soriano a slightly better 235/.263/.314 line also with one dinger.

The Reds somehow manage a 17-11 record in August, highlighted by a four-game sweep of the Rockies from August 16-19, and a three-game sweep of Barry Larkin’s new team, the Mets (August 23-5).

The Mets, while still in contention, are just simply playing bad ball. Not Larkin’s fault as he is putting up solid enough numbers .276/.390/.431 for his new club with very solid defense (6.00 RF, .984 FP). Somehow the Mets just can’t seem to win whenver Bobby Jones, the Mets #4 starter, takes the mound. Jones is an astounding 0-7, including a complete game loss 8 5 2 1 5 vs. the Expos on August 18. His peripherals are not too good .266 OBA, 5.09 ERA, but nowhere near as bad as his record. The Mets go 12-17 through August.

Their cross-town rivals are clicking on all cylinders going 21-8 on the month, and giving the Pinstripes solid possession of first place. Dmitri Young is putting up big numbers for his new team: .333/.383/.586 with 4 HR and 21 RBI.

Most of the others the Reds dealt off have been doing quite well with their new teams. Michael Tucker has put up an incredible .345/405/.636 with 8 HR for the Angels, who are tied at month-end for the Wild Card lead. Benito Santiago has solidified the catching position for the Giants with a .286/327/.429 line with 2 HR and 18 RBI while throwing out 40% of opposing baserunners; the Giants lead the Wild Card chase and are only a game and a half behind the Diamondbacks. After four very solid starts for the A’s including a seven-hit shut out of Devil Rays on August 17, Pete Harnisch has had two pretty bad starts for the A’s giving him a 3-2 record 3.49 ERA and 2.52 OBA. Unfortunately outside of Miguel Tejeda and Jason Giambi, the rest of the A’s can’t hit for a lick while Hudson & Heredia both struggle.

As of the end of August, the White Sox are running away with AL Central (80-53 8 GA of the Indians), the Yankees are 3 GA of the Red Sox in the AL East, and the Mariners are 2.5 GA of the Angels. The Wildcard chase appears to be between the Red Sox, Angels, & Indians).

In the NL, the despite a poor month, the Braves remain atop the NL East at 77-57 now 6 GA of the Mets. The Cardinals have a two-game lead on the Reds in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks are just a game ahead of the Giants, and two and a half above the Dodgers. The Reds are also two games behind the Giants in the Wild Card hunt, with the Dodgers a game behind them.

Still, Jim Bowden completes the fire sale with a last-minute waiver deal to send LF Dante Bichette to the Red Sox for pitchers John Curtice and Chris Reitsma.

SCENARIO NOTES:

I continued using historical transactions with a couple of exceptions: on August 7, the Yankees acquired Jose Canseco on waivers. With Dmitri Young on the Yankees, I left Jose Canseco on the Devil Rays. With the Reds in sale mode, I also did not make the August 6 deal acquiring Brian Hunter from the Rockies for Robert Averette.

I also notice that the AI has moved Melvin Mora, who is still with the Mets in this scenario to LF, where he joins Derek Bell in RF, and a platoon of Jay Payton and Tsuyoshi Shinjo in CF. In real life, Payton was the everyday CF while Benny Agbayani was in LF for the Mets, both of whom put up pretty good second half numbers. This might help explain the Mets drop off.

With the Reds still in the hunt and the Bichette deal done, I’ll be letting Alex Ochoa get most of the starts in LF; we’ll see if Brady Clark get some playing time there. I’m generally letting the AI handle the day-to-day stuff.

September callups are Chris Sexton (IF-OF), Brooks Kieschnick (1B), Kimera Bartee (OF), Brady Clark (OF), Larry Luebbers (LHP), Rob Bell (RHP), Luke Hudson (RHP) – historical; Calvin Pickering (1B), Luis Vizcaino (RHP), Jared Fernandez (RHP) -- ahistorical.

[schellis]

I'm wondering with Larkin and a lot of the other veterans gone from the team would Griffey ask for a trade in the off-season. With him entering his prime I don't know if he'd want to stick around with a team looking to rebuild.

We already know what happens with Griffey from 2001 on. It might be interesting to see what the Braves would offer for him.

I also wonder if Larkin would have been more willing to play that one more year with this trade having happened. I think he wanted to go out a life time Red and with them kicking him to the curb he wasn't willing to play for another team. With this Mets deal happening that isn't a issue any longer.

I would have like seeing Larkin get one more year to pad his stats a bit.

[dukecrunchybagel]

Interesting thoughts, but I can't see the Mets paying to keep Larkin around having already spent way too much on Rey Ordonez and planning to chase A-Rod during the off-season. In the end, that was one of the factors that caused Larkin to veto the trade in the first place.

I don't know if Junior would have been interested in leaving the Reds despite the rebuilding effort; he signed below market to be close to home. As much as he probably would have preferred to play for a contender, he would also have been tickled pink by being the keystone around which the Reds rebuild. Also keep in mind, JB generally did not do well in his dealing with the Braves; the Braves best trade chips at this point are guys who will be of only moderate return value (e.g. Odalis Perez, Kerry Ligtenberg, Matt Belisle), or perhaps their #1 prospect at the time -- Wilson Betemit!

A further note to keep in mind is that JB will have much more financial flexability than he had in the 2000-1 offseason. We also have a surplus of young outfielders so JB can theoretically wheel and deal more than he did to fill some gaps. Dunn & Brady Clark will be up in 2001; Kearns and Eric Byrnes in 2002.

Without giving up a spoiler, you'll be pleased to find that Larkin will sign as a free-agent with a team that will give him a chance to pad his stats. Of course, in real life, he was on the DL for most of 2001, but the sim's AI might have something differnt planned.

[schellis]

I didn't necessarily mean it had to be the Mets, just that he would be more open to playing beyond 2004 since he'd have already not been a Red for 4 years.

I think the fact that he didn't want to put on another uniform after 04 is the only reason he didn't play that one more year. I'm sure more then a few teams would have been willing to take him on.

[dukecrunchybagel]

Ah, got it.

Good point.

I will definitely consider it when I get to 2004.

[dukecrunchybagel]

The Reds were at least nominally still in the hunt for a Wildcard spot through September. After the last-minute deal of Dante Bichette, the team never really fell apart but never really took off either. They took two of three from both the Brewers (Sept 3-5) and Braves (Sept 6-8) in early September only to then drop three of four to the Pirates (9-12), two of three to the Cardinals (13-15), and then get swept by the Phillies (17-19). After that it was pretty much just formalities; the team ended up 13-15 for the month with perhaps more questions then answers, three games behind both the Cardinals and the wild card winning Dodgers.

Alex Escobar looked nothing like the great prospect he was supposed to be with an uninspiring .230/.317.309 line with a disappointing 52 Ks. He did manage to catch fire after the Reds were eliminated. His defense in RF was disappointing managing only a 1.74 RF and making three errors, but at least managing four assists. Alfonso Soriano was equally disappointing at the plate with .242/.270/.617 line, tailing off dramatically after mid-September. Defensively, he teamed up well with Pokey Reese, providing solid defense up the middle with .4.79 RF but 8 errors. Joe Nathan starts were solid but short, as Jack MacKeon, with the added personnel, tended to pull him after five innings.

Sean Casey had another solid year for the Reds with a .323 BA , and Ken Griffey Jr. made a seamless transition from the Mariners with 52 HRs and 124 RBIs to go along with a .300 BA. Griffey wins the NL HR crown but finishes second in RBIs after Jeff Kent’s 139.

Name Pos BA/OBP/SP HR RBI SB/AS G
M. Bell IF/PH .302/.349.409 3 26 4/4 66
D. Bichette LF .261/.301/.461 25 78 7/8 126
A. Boone 3B .263/.322/.435 15 69 6/9 130
S. Casey 1B .323//377/.476 14 95 1/1 157
D. Cromer PH .156/.240/.289 1 5 0/0 35
A. Escobar RF .238/317/.626 5 20 6/8 60
J. LaRue C .144/.243/.267 3 120 0/0 39
K. Griffey CF .300/.428/.626 52 124 9/19 158
B. Larkin SS .338/.423/.469 8 32 12/15 75
A. Ochoa OF .270/.335/.422 9 36 8/10 90
P. Reese 2B/SS .231/.297/.308 6 36 26/33 143
B. Santiago C .258/.297/.684 3 16 0/0 50
A. Soriano 2B .242/.270/.347 4 27 9/13 64
C. Stynes 2B/3B .292./.353/.403 7 55 11/13 99
E. Taubansee C .279/.348/.441 14 60 0/0 107
M. Tucker RF .193/.294/.370 5 16 4/6 52
D. Young RF .272/.345/.439 11 37 2/3 54

Name G W-L-Sv ERA OBA IP K
M. Aybar 16 1-1-0 5.97 .319 31 1/3 27
E. Dessens 19 3-4-0 4.77 .270 88 2/3 51
O. Fernandez 29 8-12-0 4.71 .285 154 2/3 86
K. Glauber 18 3-1-2 3.76 .290 26 1/3 16
D. Graves 67 7-4-14 3.47 .255 93 1/3 62
P. Harnisch 16 10-4-0 3.12 .214 101 87
H. Mercado 49 3-1-1 3.56 .226 60 2/3 59
J. Nathan 10 1-4-0 5.03 .289 43 2/3 45
D. Neagle 10 3-3-0 4.40 .240 57 1/3 41
S. Parris 25 6-8-0 5.71 .299 129 1/3 90
D. Reyes 44 1-4-3 5.18 .263 57 1/3 58
J. Riedling 44 2-1-1 4.19 .256 77 1/3 47
S. Sullivan 80 6-8-5 4.40 .279 88 70
R. Villone 25 12-2-0 4.96 .277 110 2/3 74
S. Williamson 50 5-5-26 4.69 .200 55 2/3 58
M. Wohlers 64 3-2-1 3.70 .231 82 2/3 75

The Mets seemed to recover from their poor August showing, managing to get back into gear and play neck-and-neck with the Dodgers for the Wild Card berth. They were in it until the final week of the season, and the Mets had their fateful series with the just-eliminated Florida Marlins. On Sept. 27, ace Al Leiter was facing Chuck Smith, and Smith was having a banner day, not allowing a runner until the fifth and a hit until the seventh. Paced by a two-run double by 1B Derek Lee, the Marlins went into the ninth leading 3-1. With two-out and Mike Piazza on first, Smith walked Derek Bell and then surrendered a two-run double to pitch-hitter Timo Perez, and the game goes to extra innings. Armando Benitez goes in to pitch the tenth for the Mets, walks Luis Castillo but gets Mark Kotsay to pop up, and Cliff Floyd to hit into a fielder’s choice. A 1-2 splitter to Derek Lee doesn’t drop, and Lee sends it over the head of right-fielder Derek Bell, giving the Marlins a 5-3 lead. In the bottom of the tenth, Antonio Alfonseca comes in for Smith and promptly surrenders a base hit to Barry Larkin. Melvin Mora reaches by forcing Larkin, Edgardo Alfonzo walks, Mike Piazza strikes out, and Alfonseca then walks Robin Ventura on four pitches. Matt Franco comes to the plate with the bases loaded, but Alfonseca strikes him out on a 2-2 sinker.

The Mets never recover from the heartbreaker, losing four of their final five, being swept in the two remaining games with the Marlins, and winning only on the day of their elimination by the Dodgers. Larkin batted .333 down the stretch for the Mets and played solid defense, but a mid-September slump left him with .278/.370/.429 7 HR and 26 RBI during his brief tenure with the Mets.

Yankees fans are hailing their new hero Dmitri Young who puts a .324/.394/.516 line with 7 HRs and 41 RBIs in Pinstripes. Torre uses Young and bats him #5 between Jorge Posada and Tino Martinez. The Yankees end up at 98-64, beating the Red Sox by six games.

The Giants catch fire on way to their NL West crown. Benito Santiago puts up modest .227//281/.346 offensive numbers, due to an end-of-the-season slump, but throws out 32% of runners and is given high marks by Dusty Baker for handling the Giants pitchers.

In addition to the Giants & Yankees, the Cardinals win the Central, and the Dodgers the NL Wildcard. The Mariners (AL West), White Sox (AL Central), and Red Sox (Wildcard) go onto Post-Season play.

As for the other ex-Reds, Michael Tucker is solid for the Angels, .309/.374/.519 with 8 HR and 23 RBIs. Pete Harnisch is okay but not spectacular for the A’s, putting up a 5-5 record with a 4.11 ERA and .265 OBA.

NOTE:

Historically, the Mets took the NL Wildcard, the A’s the AL West, and the Mariners the AL Wildcard.

[dukecrunchybagel]

The 2000 postseason took place without either the Reds or Barry Larkin. Dmitri Young and the Yankees as well as Benito Santiago and the Giants did get to play in the post-on season.

In the NLDS, the Yankees took on the Seattle Mariners and easily swept them aside. Former Red Brett Tomko got the start in game one against David Cone. The Mariners took a 2-0 nothing lead based on a couple of Rickey Henderson triples, one to lead off the game, scoring on a Raul Ibanez ground-out, and again in the seventh, this time scoring on an Al Martin ground-out. Tomko gave up a lead-off single to Dmitri Young and a walk to Tino Martinez, and then a double to Paul O’Neill to score Young, and a walk to Luis Sojo to load the bases. Manager Piniella pulls Tomko for southpaw Arthur Rhodes, who promptly surrenders a two-run double to Jose Vizcaino. Sojo scores an out later on a sac fly by David Justice. The Yankees hold on to win 4-2. In game two, Roger Clemens faces off against Aaron Sele. In a wild first inning, Clemens gives up a three-run blast to Alex Rodriguez, and the Yankees turn around and score three against Sele, as an Alex Rodriguez error, leads to three Yankees run, with ex-Reds Young and O’Neill both driving in runs. The Yankees get the lead for good in the Third on a two-run single by Scott Brosius, and tack on two more on a dinger by Jorge Posada in the Fourth against Gil Meche. Al Martin hits a two-run shot in to send Clemens to the showers in the sixth, but a ninth inning rally is shut down by Mariano Ramirez on who gets Alex Rodriguez to hit into a double play, to give the Yanks a 7-6 victory. Game three is Andy Pettite vs. Freddy Garcia, and again the M’s strike first on back-to-back doubles by Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner to take a 2-0 lead. The lead seesaws in the Fifth, when Tino Martinez gets a base-loaded hit to give the Yankees a 3-2 lead followed by Raul Ibanez run-scoring double and a base hit by Buhner against reliever Jason Grimsley. The Yankees went up for good in the seventh on a pair of back-to-back solo homer by Young and Tino Martinez against Jose Paniagua. In the ninth, Young drove in Derek Jeter for his third RBI of the day, and the Yankees beat the Mariners 6-4.

The Red Sox and Pedro Martinez took on the Chicago White Sox and Mike Sirotka. The Red Sox jumped out to a quick lead thanks to a lead off single by 2B Jose Offerman and two-run blast by RF Trot Nixon and then a solo shot by SS Nomar Garciaparra. Martinez left the game with a 5-2 lead, and despite a two-run rally against Rich Garces, Derek Lowe got 3B Greg Norton to ground to short, and set the Pale Hose down in order for a 5-4 victory. Jeff Fassero vs. Jim Parque in game two was over by the second inning – in the first CF Carl Everett had a two-run home run. In the second inning 1B Rico Brogna and DH Dante Bichette singled, 3B Mike Lansing drove in Brogna, C Jason Varitek doubled in Bichette & Lansing to chase Parque; two outs later Garciaparra homered against Kelly Wunsch to give the Red Sox a 7-0 lead. Another three-run shot by Garciaparra against Wunsch but the game out of reach, and the Red Sox cruised to a 10-4 victory. Things turned against the Red Sox upon returning to Fenway with James Baldwin going against Rolando Arrojo – Harold Baines, playing in RF for an ailing Magglio Ordonez, hit a two-run shot in the third. In the fourth following a walk to LF Carlos Lee, a single by C Charles Johnson, and a walk to 3B Greg Norton, a run scored on a grounder by SS Tony Graffanino, and another on a sacrifice fly by Baines. In the seventh, the White Sox scored two more against Pete Schourek, singles by 1B Paul Konerko & DH Frank Thomas, followed an out later by a single by Charles Johnson & a double by Greg Norton made it 6-0. The Red Sox rallied in eighth against rookie Mark Buehrle for five runs on six consecutive singles, but were shut down in the ninth by Keith Foulke for a 6-5 White Sox victory. With a 2-1 lead, manager Jimmy Williams elects to go with Ramon Martinez in game four, while Charlie Manual goes back to his ace, Sirotka. Ramon gives up a First Inning three-run home run to Frank Thomas, but the Red Sox strike back in the bottom of the frame with 3B Mike Lansing getting a bases loaded single to bring the Red Sox to within one. Ramon Martinez then loads the bases in the next frame, giving up singles to Charles Johnson, and Greg Norton, and a walk to SS Jose Valentin. Martinez gave way to Pete Schourek, who gives us a double to 2B Ray Durham to score two, and out later, a two-run single to RF Magglio Ordonez. The White Sox would go onto pile on another eight runs en route to a 15-4 shellacking on a 22 hit attack, with every White Sox but Konerko getting a hit. Game five Pedro Martinez against Jim Parque was a pitchers duel until the fifth. Parque hit 3B Mike Lansing with a pitch, and after striking out Brogna and getting Bichette to fly out, gave up a double to Jason Varitek, followed by another to Jose Offerman and single to Trot Nixon. Dante Bichette would drive another in the fifth, and that was more than enough for Pedro, who led the Red Sox to a 7-1 and an ALCS showdown with the hated Yankees.

The NLDS saw the Dodgers, wild card winners, against the NL East Champion Braves. Game one featured Kevin Brown against Greg Maddux. Both starters were in control until the Fifth, when Brown gave up a single to C Javy Lopez, followed by a walk to 3B Chipper Jones; they were advanced a groundball to 1B Eric Karros by CF Andruw Jones, where they’d score on a single by 1B Wally Joyner, and a ground ball by RF Bobby Bonilla. The Dodgers scored on an unearned run in the Seventh with the bases loaded by SS Walt Weiss on a routine grounder by SS Kevin Elster. The score remained 2-1 until the Eighth, when Maddux gave up a double to 2B Mark Grudzielanek and a walk to RF Shawn Green. Bobby Cox decides to go to John Rocker, who gives up a single to 3B Adrian Beltre to load the bases and after striking out LF Gary Sheffield, gives up a three run double to 1B Eric Karros. Closer Jeff Shaw gives up a solo homer to Javy Lopez, but holds on for a 4-3 victory. Game two was Tom Glavine against Darren Dreifort. The Braves looked to be in for a blow out with a 6-0 lead based on a third inning three-run shot by Chipper Jones, and a two-run fourth inning home run by LF B. J. Surhoff. The Dodgers did actually rally in the ninth with Gary Sheffield sending a three-run shot to the bleachers against Terry Mulholland, but John Rocker struck out Eric Karros to give the Braves a 7-4 win. Game three, Kevin Millwood vs. Carlos Perez was all Braves. Millwood helped his cause with a bases-loaded single in the Second to give the Braves a 2-0 lead, but then a two-run homer to C Todd Hundley, but Perez blew up in the Third, giving up a single to Surhoff and a walk to Lopez followed by a two-run double by Chipper Jones who scored two outs later on a Joyner triple. Inexplicably, Dodger manager stuck with Perez, who then gave up another three runs in the fifth. The Braves won Game Three with a 12-7 shellacking. Game four the Dodgers turn to Chan Ho Park and the Braves go with John Burkett. The Braves struck in the first with singles by Surhoff, Chipper and then Andruw Jones leading to a run. That was all the scoring until the seventh when CF Tom Goodwin singled, was sacrificed to second by Grudzielanek, and following an intentional pass to Shawn Green, Goodwin scored on a single by Beltre. In the ninth inning, Davey Johnson goes with fifth starter Eric Gagne, who gets Bonilla to fly out and strikes out Walt Weiss. Rafael Furcal pinch hits for Rudy Seanez and smacks a single up the middle. 2B Quilvio Veras then drives 2-0 fast ball into the left center bleachers. The Dodgers manage two hits against Rocker, but come up empty, and the Braves go onto the NLCS.

In the final NLDS, the NL West champion Giants go against the Central champion Cardinals. Russ Ortiz vs. Andy Benes in game one. The Cardinals draw first blood when Ray Lankford singles and scores on a hit-and-run double by Edgar Renteria. They score again in the third on a sacrifice by 3B Placido Polanco, but the Giants get that one back when Russ Ortiz scores on a single by 3B Bill Mueller. The big blow for the Giants is in the fourth, when following a single CF Ellis Burks, C Benito Santiago sends a 2-1 fastball into the RF bleachers to give the Giants a 3-2 lead. The Giants would tack on three more in the Fifth, the final runs in the game, as the Giants took game one 6-2. Game two with Daryl Kile vs. Livan Hernandez was an early blow-out. After walking J. T. Snow and Barry Bonds, Benito Santiago plated Snow with a single, CF Marvin Bernard walked, and Kile forced in a second run with a walk to Mueller. An out later, 2B Jeff Kent singled in two more, to give the Giants a 5-0 lead. The Cardinals had a three-run homer by 3B Fernando Tatis in the Fourth, but the Giants had a two-run blast by Ellis Burks in the Fifth to put the game out of reach, they’d finish with a 9-4 victory. Game three was a pitching jewel, matching Rick Ankiel against Shawn Estes. In the Fourth Inning, RF J. D. Drew walked and went to third on a single to right by Tatis; Polanco hit a sharp ball to 3B Bill Mueller who started a double play around the horn (Mueller-Kent-Snow), during which Drew scored. It was the one and only run of the game, as Ankiel hurled a two-hit shutout. Game Four pitted Garrett Stephenson against Kirk Rueter, and it was all Stephenson. In the first, SS Edgar Renteria singled and stole second on a busted hit-and-run; J. D. Drew doubled to score him and was promptly driven in by another double by Tatis. Tatis would add two more with a third inning home run against Rueter. The Cardinals added five more in the Seventh against Miguel del Toro to account for the 9-0 final. The demoralized Giants return to Pac Bell park without scoring a single run and managing a mere seven hits at Busch Stadium. Game Five saw a rematch of the Benes vs. Ortiz pairing. The Cardinals struck first with a walk to Renteria, hit-and-run single by Drew, and base hit by Tats to stake the Cards to a 1-0 lead. The Giants got it right back when CF Marvin Bernard singled and scored on a double by SS Rich Aurilia. The Giants took the lead in the Third – Snow walked, Aurilia doubled him to third, Jeff Kent grounded back to Benes, and Ellis Burks was given an intentional pass by Tony LaRussa to get to 3B Russ Davis, who Dusty Baker had starting for Mueller. Davis lined the first pitch he saw from Benes, a fastball, into the right field gap, clearing the bases. The Cards struck back against Ortiz in the Fifth on a three-run home run by Tatis to tie the game at four, but the Giants came right back, with Russ Davis again coming through on a single to score Rich Aurilia. The final score was in the seventh against Jason Christiansen, who gave up a double to Damon Minor, a defensive replacement for Snow, followed by a single by Aurilia. The Giants were going to the NLCS with their 6-4 victory.

In the NLCS, the Braves sent Greg Maddux against Livan Hernandez in game one. Livan did not last long, as the Braves went to town against him right away. 2B Quilvio Veras walked, and scored on a hit-and-run double by LF B. J. Surhoff who then scored on a single by C Javy Lopez. Livan then walked Chipper Jones, and surrendered another RBI single by CF Andruw Jones, and a walk to 1B Wally Joyner. Hernandez goes to the showers without retiring a single Brave. RF Reggie Sanders grounds into a 6-3 DP to score Javy, and the Braves have a 4-0 lead, nearly insurmountable with Maddux on the mound. The Giants manage to score a couple in the fourth – a double by CF Armando Rios, a triple by Benito Santiago, and a pinch-single by Bobby Estallela, but the Braves blow it open in the seventh against Alan Embree on a three-run blast by Javy Lopez. The Braves win game one 8-4. Game two is Shawn Estes vs. Tom Glavine. The Giants get first blood with CF Marvin Bernard driving in RF Ellis Burks on a single in the second. In the bottom of the frame, Estes walks Chipper Jones, who goes to third on a hit-and-run by 1B Andres Gallaraga, and scores on double play by RF Bobby Bonilla. The Giants come right back when Bernard singles, steals second, and scores on a Jeff Kent single in the Third. Glavine helps his own cause when he scores Bonilla on a single in the Fifth. The scores remains tied until the eighth, when 2B Quilvio Veras walks, is bunted over to second by on a sacrifice by LH B. J. Surhoff and scores on a double by Andruw Jones, who scores, after Chipper Jones is given an intentional walk, on a single by 1B Wally Joyner. John Rocker gives up one run in the ninth and gets the save. Game three was Russ Ortiz vs. Kevin Millwood. Ortiz walked Veras and gave up a two-run home run to Surhoff – that was all the Braves needed, as Millwood would only give up three hits, one of them a solo home run by C Benito Santiago, in a five to one complete game victory. Dusty Baker went back to Russ Ortiz for game four, while Bobby Cox gives the ball to John Burkett. The teams traded first-inning runs: the Braves after walks to both Jones and single by Joyner, the Giants after a walk to 3B Bill Mueller and a double by Aurilia. After that it was quite a pitching duel, with only a couple of hits until the top of the sixth – Andruw Jones singled, went to second on a grounder by Chipper Jones, and then stole third. Wally Joyner hit a ground ball to shortstop Aurilia scoring Andruw Jones. The Giants could get only two more singles against Burkett, who went the distance, and the Braves swept the Giants with a 2-1 victory.

The ALCS began with David Cone against Pedro Martinez. The Red Sox struck the first blow in the Fourth Inning. Dante Bichette got to second on a Derek Jeter throwing error and was driven in by 3B Manny Alexander. LF Troy O’Leary singled, and Alexander then scored on a single 1B Rico Brogna. The Red Sox added a third run in the eighth when RF Trot Nixon was hit by a pitch, stole second, and scored on a single by CF Carl Everett. In the bottom of the Eighth, gives up a single to CF Bernie Williams, a single by SS Derek Jeter, and hangs a curve to C Jorge Posada who sends it over the left field fence to tie the game. The Red Sox load the bases in the Top of the Ninth against Jeff Nelson, but Mike Stanton gets Carl Everett to fly out to Bernie Williams to end the threat. Rich Garces lets Paul O’Neill get as far as second but gets 2B Chuck Knobluach to ground out to send the game into extra innings. In the top of the tenth, a Scott Brosius error gets runners on first and second, but O’Leary grounds into a double play to end the threat. In bottom of the eleventh, the Red Sox have Tim Wakefield on the mound – C Jorge Posada singles, and DH Dmitri Young reaches on a error by 2B Jose Offerman, and 1B Tino Martinez walks to load the bases. Paul O’Neill hits a grounder to Garciaparra to force Posada at the plate. Scott Brosius then hits into a 6-2-3 DP to end the threat. The Yankees threaten again in the twelfth: LF David Justice doubles against Wakefield with two outs, and Derek Jeter is given an intentional pass. Hippolito Pichardo comes in for Wakefield and strikes out Posada. In the thirteenth, Dwight Gooden is into his third inning for the Yankees. Troy O’Leary singles and is sacrificed to second by Brogna, and then driven in by Jason Varitek for the winning run with a 4-3 final. Game Two is Roger Clemens vs. Rolando Arrojo and is a 17-5 blow out, every Yankees has at least one hit, and in fact Jorge Posada is the only one with only one single. Game Three has Pete Schourek facing Andy Pettite. Dmitri Young and Paul O’Neill both launch solo shots in the second, and the Yankees add two more in the fourth – a single by Justice, Jeter walks, singles by Posada and Young drive in a run each. Wakefield comes in to relieve Schourek and the game is quiet until the eighth inning when the Red Sox score a couple off of Pettite on a two-run single by SS Nomar Garciaparra. The Yankees retaliate with a Brosius bomb over the Green Monster, and the Yankees go up with a 6-2 victory. For Game Four, the Yankees go with Orlando Hernandez and the Red Sox with Ramon Martinez. Nomar gets a solo homer in the first and is answered in the second by Tino. The Red Sox then rally in the bottom of the second: O’Leary and Brogna walk, and score on singles by Offerman and Nixon respectively. The Yankees tie it up in the Seventh; Ramon Martinez gives us a single to Tino Martinez and then walks O’Neill. A ground ball to the right side by Brosius advances the runners, who then score on a single by 2B Wilson Delgado. The Red Sox take the lead back in the Seventh off of Ramiro Mendoza – Brogna singles, goes to third on a double by Varitek, and scores a dribbler by Jose Offerman. The Sox add a ninth inning run to beat the Yankees, 5-3. Game five Cone vs. Pedro J. Martinez – and is quite the pitching duel until the fifth Troy O’Leary belts a two-run home run, Brogna walks, an out later is doubled to third by Offerman, and both score on a Trot Nixon single. Garciaparra singles, and Cone is relieved by Neagle. Carl Everett singles in the fifth run of the inning, and Bichette triples to clear the bases. The Red Sox have a 7-0 lead and go on behind the three-hit shutout pitching of Martinez to beat the Yankees 13-0. The series returns to the Bronx with the Red Sox a win away. Game six – Arrojo vs Clemens: The Red Sox score first in the Third inning, on a solo blast by Varitek followed an out later by back-to-back doubles by 3B Mike Lansing and Garciaparra. In the bottom of the third, Knobluach doubles in Justice to make it 2-1.The Yankees tie it in the Sixth, with RF Roberto Kelly singling, going to second on a wild pitch, and scoring on a Posada base hit. The score remains tied until the eighth; with Rich Garces on the mound, Bernie Williams singles but is forced by Kelly, who goes to second on a wild pitch. Derek Jeter singles to score Kelly, and Posada gets a walk. John Wasdin replaces Garces, and Jeter steals third. DH Dmitri Young scores Jeter on a sacrifice fly. The Red Sox rally in the ninth with two outs: Lansing singles, O’Leary doubles (with Lansing stopping at third), and Brogna gets a walk. Clemens exits, and Mario Ramirez enters, but walks 2B Mike Lansing to force in a run. Varitek then lofts a lazy fly to right field which Roberto Kelly puts away to force game 7. Starters for the penultimate game are Pettite and Schourek. The Yankees get a first inning run when Bernie Williams singles, goes to second on a wild pitch, and scores on a Roberto Kelly single. LF David Justice gets a two-run homer with Dmitri Young on first in the sixth. Pettite is almost unhittable – he gives up a fourth inning single to Carl Everett and nothing else. A 3-0 one-hit complete game for Pettite, and the Yankees are off to face the Braves in the 2000 Fall Classic.

Game one of the World Series has Greg Maddux against David Cone. A tremendous pitching duel, the Yankees get the first score in the Seventh Inning. 1B Tino Martinez doubles and LF David Justice is given an intentional pass. 3B Scott Brosius sacrifices the runners over who both score on a 2B Jose Vizcaino’s single to left. The Yankees blow it open in the eighth – C Jorge Posada walks, DH Dmitri Young singles, and Maddux is relieved by Mike Remlinger. Tino Martinez doubles in Posada, Justice gets another intentional pass to load the bases, and Remlinger then forces in a run with a walk to Brosius, and hits the shower. Kerry Ligtenberg then gives up a two-run single to Vizcaino. The Braves manage to score one unearned run in the ninth as Cone throws a three hitter complete game. Game two is an even bigger embarrassment as Roger Clemens blows out Tom Glavine. The Yankees get a run in the first on a double by Williams and single by Jeter, then tack on three more in the second on a two-run triple by Justice, and five more in the third. All in all, the Yankees score eighteen times with home runs by Jeter, Justice, and two by Da Meat Hook, and destroy the Braves 18-1. Game three is Millwood vs El Duque, and goes no better for the Braves. The Yankees reach Millwood for two in the Third – Vizcaino singles, is sacrificed by Orlando Hernandez to second, scores on a Williams double, who is driven in by Jeter on a single – and two more in the fourth – Young walks, Tino gets on base due to an error by 2B Quilvio Veras. After a wild pitch advances them, a Brosius sac. fly plates Young and moves Tino to third, and Tino scores on a single by El Duque. The fifth features a grand slam by Scott Brosius. The Braves do manage two runs this time, losing 9-2. Joe Torre sends Denny Neagle to battle John Burkett for Game Four. The Braves strike first with a first inning double by Veras and a single by 3B Chipper Jones to score a run, but the Yankees retaliate in the next frame on a double by Posada and single by Young. Neagle helps his own cause by singling to lead off the third, going to second on a walk to Justice, and scoring on a Jeter single. The Braves fight back and take the lead in the Fifth – Veras walks and steals second, Andrew Jones singles him in and scores on a double by Chipper Jones, chasing Neagle in favor of Randy Choate. The Yankees tie it up in the bottom of the innings when Jeter doubles, goes to third on a wild pitch, and scores on a ground ball by Posada. The Braves strike again and take the lead the next inning – RF Brian Jordan reaches on an error by Brosius, is sacrificed to second, and scores on a single by Trent Hubbard, pinch hitting for Burkett. The Braves hold the lead until the top of the Ninth, when John Rocker gives up a single to Tino Martinez, who goes to second on a wild pitch, Brosius doubles him in, and another wild pitch sends him to third. 2B Chuck Knobluach is intentionally walked, but is picked off. Glenallen Hill pinch hits and singles in the go-ahead run. The Braves get runners on first and second but Mariano Rivera strikes out Andres Gallaraga, and the Yankees sweep the Braves to become 2000 World Champions.

[dukecrunchybagel]

NOVEMBER, 2000

THE REDS OFFSEASON PLANS
Going into the 2001 off-season, Jim Bowden’s Reds face some significant challenges, but the fire sale of July has created some payroll flexibility. The Reds payroll for 2000 was just under $50 million, but John Allen figured that the Reds attendance wouldn’t support that level with Barry Larkin gone. Indeed, figures had tailed off for the tail end of 2000, ending a hair’s breath above the 2.3 million mark. In a meeting between Carl Lindner, Allen, and Bowden, Allen pushed for a 20% cut down to $42M, and of course Bowden argued for all he could get. In the end, Allen won out, but Lindner agreed to increase scouting expenditures by 10% and set aside $2M to sign draft picks later in the year. Still even at a paltry $42M, Bowden is in pretty good shape. He shed commitments of $7M for Bichette, $3.8M for Harnisch, $3.5 for Young, and $1.8M for Tucker. Larkin was expected to sign for about $10M and Neagle for about $8M, which were both players that Bowden had shed. In fact, as of October 31, 2000, the Reds had $34M committed:

Ken Griffey Jr. $12.5M
Pokey Reese $ 3.2M
Sean Casey $ 3.0M
Ron Villone $ 2.8M
Steve Parris $ 2.3M
Danny Graves $ 2.1M
Ed Taubansee $ 1.8M
Scott Sullivan $ 1.7M
Alex Ochoa $ 1.6M
Chris Stynes $ 1.3M
Dennis Reyes $ 0.6M
Oswaldo Fernandez $ 0.6M
Elmer Dessens $ 0.5M

Most of the starting lineup was already set – Taubansee would platoon with rookie Jason Larue behind the plate, the Mayor was at 1B, Soriano at 2B, Pokey at SS, Boonie at 3B, Alex Escobar in RF, and Junior in CF. LF was still TBA but there were plenty of candidates – rookies Eric Byrnes, Adam Dunn, & Brady Clark could compete against Chris Stynes and Alex Ochoa. The bullpen was solid with Sullivan, Williamson, and Graves. The biggest question was the starting rotation: Joe Nathan, Steve Parris, & Ron Villone, and of now the last two spots would be fought over by Rob Bell, Elmer Dessens, Oswaldo Fernandez, and perhaps youngsters Lance Davis, Brian Reith, and Ed Yarnall.

On the plus side, there were plenty of free agent pitching available –the list was headed by Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Darren Dreifort, Mike Hampton, Mike Mussina, and Rick Reed. On the minus side, the 2000-1 off-season had perhaps the most prolifigate spending of any in recorded history. Alex Rodriguez got $252M and Manny Ramirez $200M. The list of available starters for Bowden would quickly shrink into the second-tier starters with Bowden having only about $6M of leeway.

BARRY LARKIN, FREE AGENT
Larkin was a top-tier free agent but only the second-best free agent shortstop that year – the Mariners’ Alex Rodriguez was perhaps the best player in baseball in 2000. With Rey Ordonez set to return, the Mets, failing to reach the playoffs, had zero interest in bringing Larkin back. The shortstop market was somewhat crowded, as Mike Bordick of the Orioles, Alex S. Gonzalez of the Blue Jays, and Jose Valentin of the White Sox. Larkin’s asking price made him to cost prohibitive to the smaller market teams. Eventually, the field narrowed to the Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, Rockies, White Sox, and perhaps the Cubs and Orioles. The only question for Larkin was to wait until A-Rod signed or strike out before then.

THE FIRST TENTATIVE STEPS

The first trade of the 2000 off-season was a swap of relievers between the Blue Jays and White Sox; the former sending right-hander Gary Glover for southpaw Scott Eyre on November 7; a win for the Jays, Eyre would later go on to be part of the outstanding bullpen of the 2002 NL Champ Giants under Dusty Baker.

On November 17, Billy Beane trades 2B Randy Velarde to the Rangers for a couple of pitching prospects – a lefty named Ryan Cullen, and more importantly a righty named Aaron Harang. On the twentieth, the A’s continue trimming by sending outfielder Matt Stairs to the Cubs for a minor leaguer, Eric Ireland.

On the 18th, the Giants trade light-hitting infielder Bill Mueller to the Cubs for reliever Tim Worrell. Mueller wouldn’t be good for another few years, while Worrell was another part of that great Giants bullpen.

The first free agent of minor significance to sign was Jose Vizcaino signing a two year $1.75M deal with the Astros on Nov. 20. A bigger signing happened on the 21st with the Phillies inking closer Jose Mesa, lately of the Mariners, to a two-year $6.8M contract; Mesa had been struggling since blowing game seven of the 1997 WS. They’d give lefty specialist Rheal Cormier of the Red Sox even more, 3 years $8.75M, despite a pretty mediocre year, on Nov. 30.

The Mets retained 40 year old closer John Franco’s services for another three years for $10.5M on the Nov. 22.

The month closed with a couple of big signings – the White Sox opted to retain offensively-potent (25 HRs 92 RBIs) but defensively-challenged (36 E) Jose Valentin. The rumor is that Valentin will be shifted to another defensive position. Of even greater note is the Mariners signing Seibu Lions star outfielder Ichiro Suzuki to a three-year $14.1M deal.

November passes uneventfully for the Reds. Barry Larkin watches the market develop.


HISTORICAL NOTES:

In actuality, Bowden entered the off-season in financial troubles. With $12.5M owed to Junior and another $9M to Larkin, he had effectively 40% of the payroll invested in two superstars -- a situation that would haunt the team for the remainder of Bowden's miserable tenure. Add the fact that Young, Tucker, & Harnisch are all still on the payroll, and Bowden starts with payroll commitments of $52M. Bowden would get a larger budget closer to $47M, but almost no money was left over for scouting (already decimated under Marge Schott) and the 2002 draft. Actual Reds attendance for just over 2.5 million in 2000, but that team was in competition most of the year; the 200,000 less fans is my conjecture.

To cope with the payroll difficulties, Bowden made four deals in November to knock the payroll under $45M, leaving a few million for tweaks. Unfortunately, the deals were all disastrously bad for the Reds, leaving Bowden almost nothing to show for his efforts. On November 8, he dealt Ron Villone, who did not do well as a starter in 2000 for Jack MacKeon (despite a decent 1999) to the Rockies for southpaw Justin Carter, a decent enough reliever in High A ball, doomed to be another victim of the Reds minor league BOYA program (Blow Out Your Arm) and AA righty reliever Jeff Taglienti, who the Rox had gotten in the Rolando Arrojo-Mike Lansing dump earlier in the year. Taglienti seemed to forget anything he knew as soon as he came into the Reds system, had a poor 2001 and was out of baseball a year later.

On the 16th, in probably his best deal of the month, Bowden dealt utility man Chris Stynes to the Red Sox for outfielder Michael Coleman and infielder Donnie Sadler. Coleman was the #3 prospect for the Red Sox in 1999 but was injured most of 2000, getting in only 18 games for Pawtucket. Sadler could play just about anywhere, but in his 39 games in a Reds uniform managed only a .553 OPS and was traded to the Royals for a minor leaguer who never saw the bigs.

Bowden’s second deal of the 16th as to deal catcher Eddie Taubansee to the Indians for righty Robert Pugmire, coming off a really bad 2000 in AA and earning a demotion to low A, where he was also pretty bad. This should have been a hint for Bowden, as Pugmire played in seven games for the Red’s high A team (the Mudville Nine – California’s League Stockton franchise) compiling a 7.79 ERA before pursuing a life outside of professional baseball. Brower was a pretty well regarded prospect, who had started 11 games (not very well) for the Tribe in 2000. He started in the rotation for the Reds in 2001, but quickly worked his way into the bullpen, where he was fairly effective for the next four years. Unfortunately, only about one of those was for the Reds, as Bowden dealt him for lefty Bruce Chen in 2002.

Finally, starter Steve Parris was dealt to the Blue Jays for righty Clayton Andrews who had ten truly awful games for the Blue Jays in 2000 (10.02 ERA, 2.081 WHIP) and who would never really get past AA, and righty Leo Estrella, who was lost on waivers later in the year.

Since those deals were all financially motivated, I see no need for Jim Bowden to make any of them. All other deals cited are historical.

[dukecrunchybagel]

DECEMBER, 2000
The Floodgates Open

As December opens, Jim Bowden has spoken to many free agents as his team heads for Dallas to the winter meetings. Before that Bowden has a fit of momentary insanity, when he releases toolsy outfielder Kimera Bartee on December 1. There is also a minor trade between the Brewers and the Padres that day – the Brewers send promising young pitcher Brandon Kolb for infielder Santiago Perez, plus a couple of players to be traded later on each side.

The winter meetings open on December 4 with a couple of ex-Yankees signing as free agents: reliever Jeff Nelson went to Mariners on a 3 year, $10.5M deal, and Denny Neagle, who started the year with the Reds, got signed by the Rockies on a 5-year $51.5M deal. The last deal was the kiss-of-death for Bowden, the best of the crop were definitely going to be out of his price range, they settled on a final list of five candidates: Frank Castillo, Hideo Nomo, Armando Reynoso, Steve Traschel, & Ismael Valdes.

After a quiet fifth, the meetings got off with a bang with many free agents signings for big bucks: Andy Ashby to the Dodgers (3 yrs/$22.5M), Rick Reed and Turk Wendell resigned by the Mets (3 yrs/$21.75M and 3 yrs/$9.4M), Armando Reynoso (2 yrs/$6.5M). Reynoso’s signing was particularly problematic for Bowden, and the decision was made to act quickly.

The seventh so more big contracts handed out – the big prize was Mike Mussina going to the Yankees on a 6 year $88.5M deal; also, there were several resignings: Cal Eldred with the White Sox (1 yr $1M), Mark Gardner by the Giants (1 yr $2M), and Tim Wakefield (2 yrs/$6.5M). The Reds got in the act by signing Frank Castillo, who started for the Cubs from 1991-8, whose fortunes turned around with Blue Jays. He posted a 10-5, with a 3.59 ERA and 1.217 WHIP for the Blue Jays. The Reds outbid the Red Sox with a 2 year $6.0M deal. There was also a trade: the White Sox dealt submariner Chad Bradford to the A’s for a PTBNL.

More signing on the Eighth: the Giants signed Shawon Dunston (1 yr/$1M) and resigned Benito Santiago (2 yr/ $4M), the Cubs inked closer Jeff Fassero (2 yr/$5.1M), the Rangers 1B Andres Gallaraga (1 yr/$6.25M), 1B Mar Grace by the Dbacks (2 yrs/$6M), and southpaw Dan Plesac by the Blue Jays ($1 yr/$2.4M).

On Dec. 9, the White Sox dealt OF Jeff Abbott to the Marlins for OF Julio Ramirez.

More free agents signed on the Tenth: the Pirates signed OF Derek Bell (2 yr/$9M), the Rangers, 3B Ken Caminiti (1 yr/$3.25M), Ron Gant to the Rockies (1 yr/$2.05M), SS Alex S. Gonzalez (4 yr/$20M) by the Blue Jays, OF Dave Martinez by the Braves (2 yr/$3M), southpaw Terry Mulholland by the Pirates (2 yr/$6M), and reliever Mark Petkovsek by the Rangers (2 yr/$4.9M).

December 11 saw the penultimate signing – Alex Rodriguez agreed to a ten-year $252M deal with the Rangers. That was the only big-dollar contract: The Mets inked Kevin Appier to a 4 yr/$42M deal, the Dodgers retained Darren Dreifort on a 5 yr/$55M deal, and in smaller deals SP Pat Rapp to the Angels (1 yr $2M), IF Jeff Frye to the Blue Jays (1 yr $1M), and RP Doug Henry by the Royals (2 yr $2.75M). There were also a couple of trades: the Mets sent OF Bubba Trammell to the Padres for RP Donnie Wall, and a six-player extravaganza sending C Brad Ausmus, RP Doug Brocail, and OF Nelson Cruz from the Tigers to OF Roger Cedeno, SP Chris Holt, and OF Mitch Meluskey of the Astros. This was the fourth time Ausmus had been traded between the two teams. In the Rule V draft, the Reds nabbed righty Chris Piersoll from the Cubs. Barry Larkin made up his mind, agreeing to a three-year $40M contract with the Chicago White Sox; Charlie Manuel would use Jose Valentin at third base with Larkin taking over the shortstop job.

Thing barely slacked off following the end of the winter meetings. On the 12th, the Rockies signed southpaw Mike Hampton to an eight-year $121M contract. On the 13th 1B Rico Brogna went to the Braves (1 yr/$1.5M). On the 14th, the Cubs signed Tom Gordon (2 yr/$4M), and the Mets inked Steve Traschel (2 yr/$7M). The Expos dealt starter Dustin Hermanson and lefty reliever Steve Kline to the Cardinals for 3B Fernando Tatis and righty Brett Rheames in a move designed to free up third base for rookie Albert Pujols. In a second deal, the Angels, losers on the Barry Larkin sweepstakes, acquired SS Royce Clayton, now out of a job for the Rangers, for a couple of relievers: Lou Pote, and Bart Miadich.

The Reds made news again on the 16th, resigning reliever Mark Wohlers to a one-year $1.5M deal. Hideo Nomo was signed by the Red Sox (1 yr/$4.5M). The Rangers also made a deal with the Tigers getting a couple of prospects for southpaw reliever Matt Perisho.

On the 18th, more contracts were reached: Sandy Alomar went to the White Sox (2 yr/$5.4M), Jason Bere to the Cubs (2 yr/$4.5M), Charles Johnson to the Marlins (5 yrs/$35M). On the 19th: Pat Hentgen by the Orioles (3 yrs/$9.6M), Todd Hundley by the Cubs (4yrs/$23.5M), and Manny Ramirez by the Red Sox (8 yrs/$200M). On the 20th, a couple of resignings: Mike Bordick by the Orioles (2 yrs/$9.5M), and John Burkett by the Braves (1 yr/$1.75M). On the 21st, the Orioles gave 1B David Segui, who started his career with the team, a 4 year $28M deal.

On the 22nd, the Brewers gave former Red Jeffrey Hammonds a 3 yr $21.75M contract, while Bret Boone returned to the Mariners on a 1 year $3.25M. The Orioles having just dealt big bucks to David Segui, dealt surplus 1B Ryan Minor the Expos for reliever Jorge Julio.

HISTORICAL NOTES
Frank Castillo actually signed on Dec. 7 with the Red Sox for about $0.5M less. Castillo is the type of pitcher I could see Bowden singing – impressive prior record available for a bargain. The runner up was Nomo, but he wanted more money – almost twice what Castillo after a much poorer year (He’d end up with a one-year $4.5M deal with the Red Sox). Reynoso went too fast for Bowden to get. Ismael Valdez was coming off of a really bad year, while Steve Traschel’s year was better but he didn’t have the same track record of success.

On December 11, the Orioles dealt Jayson Werth to the Blue Jays for starter John Bale. Since the Jays did not get Steve Parris in November, I assumed that they would have kept Bale. The Dec. 14 Royce Clayton deal actually took place with the White Sox, who sent relievers Aaron Myette & Brian Schmack to the Rangers.

I also changed a couple of minor league signings by the Reds which both occurred on December 16 – Jared Fernandez goes to the Blue Jays instead of the Reds, while infielder Bill Selby goes to the Red Sox instead. The Reds don’t need Fernandez having kept Parris and Villone and signing Castillo, while the Jays are short of pitching as a result of not getting Parris. Selby started with the Red Sox, who did not acquire Chris Stynes in November.