Star's Minor league top 15 (3/16/2008)

[starpower25]

1. Jay Bruce - Ultra talented corner outfield prospect with every tool to be one of the games best. Baseball America's minor league player of the year

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jay%20Bruce&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=457803

2. Johnny Cueto - Electric stuff with control ! Only downside is a lack of size but I am one of those who dont look at the size of the pitcher but the ability in the arm.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Johnny%20Cueto&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456501

3. Homer Bailey - #1 stuff needs to work on controlling it in the zone. Only 21 years old so he has plenty of time. Reds fans running out of patients but I am not.

www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Homer-Bailey.shtml

4. Joey Votto - Solid hitting prospects with the ability to steal 10-15 bases. Could turn into a 80-100 RBI guy.

www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Joey-Votto.shtml

5. Drew Stubbs - Has 5 tool ability but lacks the ability to make enough contact right now. Showed improved hitting ability late in 2007. This is a huge year for this talented CF prospect.

www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Drew-Stubbs.shtml

6. Todd Frazier - Frazier a college all american at short will need to move off of the position but his bat plays anywhere.

www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Todd-Frazier.shtml

7. Devin Mesoraco- How often do you here about a catcher with 5 tools ? Well this kid has them.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Devin%20Mesoraco&pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519023

8. Juan Francisco - Hit more Hr's in Dayton then Dunn, Pena, or Bruce. His power is for real and he is a switch hitter !

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Juan%20Francisco&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=464433

9. Dan Dorn - A college bat that skipped rookie ball and has never looked back. He will start the year in AAA and if Reds dont resign Dunn LF might be his.

www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Danny-Dorn.shtml

10. Kyle Lotzkar - Canadian pitcher who just now turned 18. Has 90-95 mph fastball with solid secondary stuff.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Kyle%20Lotzkar&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518952

11. Matt Maloney - Lefty with solid stuff across the board and he throws strikes. Will start the year in AAA.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matthew%20Maloney&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476011

12. Adam Rosales - Multi position player who can play SS, 2b, 3rd or 1st. His bat has really come around and he will start season in AAA.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Adam%20Rosales&pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=489267

13. Scott Carrol - College arm with a plus fastball and splitter. Will start season in dayton but could move fast.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Scott%20Carroll&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453222

14. Josh Ravin - Could easily rocket up this list by mid season with his plus stuff including 98 mph fastball !

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Joshua%20Ravin&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502051

15. Brandon Waring - Broke Billings single season Hr record with 20! Needs to make more contact but powe will give him ore time .

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Waring&pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519397

[Lark11]

Interesting stuff.

I'm curious about Scott Carrol. I don't know much about him, but you think he's got a legit shot at making an impact?

A couple other thoughts, I know it's only spring training, but I was a bit disappointed by Maloney's performance. I was expecting more out of him, but maybe his lack of top notch stuff really will relegate him to the 5th slot in the rotation.

Brandon Waring makes me very nervous, as he struck out a ton at the Rookie level. As a polished, college prospect, the fact that he was struggling to make contact against a lesser level of competition is a bit worrisome.

Overall, I think this is a big season for a number of Reds prospects. Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, and Votto will "graduate" to the majors, so it'll be interesting to see who steps up and fills the void. We have a number of prospects who could answer a lot of question marks in either the positive or negative this year.

1. Danny Dorn still isn't getting much respect from the pundits, but Reds fans love him. Will he step up and prove himself to be worthy of consideration for a starting job? Or, are the pundits right, is he nothing more than a 4th outfielder?

2. Josh Ravin fell off of most top prospect lists all together, but his picture perfect mechanics and top notch stuff could make him a top of the rotation pitcher. His command needs to improve and he'll take a giant leap forward if it happens in 2008. If he a potential top of the rotation starter? Or, just another great arm that becomes a never was?

3. Drew Stubbs took a big step forward last year. He was forced to choke up and that seemed to unlock his potential. By choking up, he improved his bat control and contact rate, which helped his offensive numbers across the board. Was the choking up effecting real? Or, was his improved performance nothing more than the result of small sample size?

4. Devin Mesoraco was terrible in 2007. Personally, I don't put any stock in it at all, but that doesn't wipe it off the books. He had thumb injuries and was getting his first taste of pro ball, so I expect him to demonstrate why he was a 1st round pick in 2008. Of course, the question remains, will he? Or, was 2007 indicative of future struggles?

5. Travis Wood is another question mark. He struggled with arm soreness last year and didn't post great numbers. However, when he returned his stuff was back and he pitched well. Scouts have concerns that his repertoire has improved much beyond a terrific changeup and that his velocity isn't where it used to be. Will 2008 reveal him to be a one trick pony? Or, will he take the necessary step towards reclaiming his top prospect status?

Personally, I think 2008 is "moving day" in the Reds organization. It'll tell us quite a lot about the future of any number of our prospects. Who will answer the bell? And, who will fade into obscurity? The 2008 season should hold the answers.

[SteveO]

Starpower25,

Seems like you know your stuff about minor leaguers. What do you think about Zach Cozart and Chris Heisey? Is either a real prospect or just more filler?

[starpower25]

Cozart is a slick fielding kid at short He is not a great hitter but could develope into a .270 type hitter with a plus glove and arm. His problem is he gets a little pull happy at times.

Chris Heasliy is a nice story. He came out of a small Christian College andis a hard nosed player. he has some pop in the bat and can run but its unclear if his ability will fly in the higher levels but I am rooting for him.

[The Duke]

I am not as down on our top 10 after the Big 4 graduate to the bigs. I think by the end of this year, this will be out top 10:

1. Todd Frazier, SS/3B
2. Drew Stubbs, CF
3. Kyle Lotzkar, SP
4. Devin Mesoraco, C
5. Juan Francisco, 3B/LF
6. Daryll Thompson, SP
7. Dan Dorn, LF
8. Josh Roenicke, RP
9. Matt Maloney, SP
10. Adam Rosales, IF

and I think the top 5 could all end this year in the BA top 100 list. If Francisco can raise his plate awareness more then he could end up #2 or #3 on this list. In a recent chat with Jim Callis on ESPN.com he said that Stubbs would likely be a top 25 prospect at the end of the year if he continues his improvement from the end of last year.

As for Carrol, he will have to move fast, he is a 23 year old in Low A. Does he have a decent third pitch?

[starpower25]

Well Duke that is a solid list but your forgetting the draft. its hard to predict the top 10 untill after the june player draft. I predict our 1st rd pick and 2nd rd pick coudl fall into the top 10.

[The Duke]

starpower25 said:

Well Duke that is a solid list but your forgetting the draft. its hard to predict the top 10 untill after the june player draft. I predict our 1st rd pick and 2nd rd pick coudl fall into the top 10.

Forgot about the draft. Trouble is the value around our spot seems to be 1B and we have little to no need with those with Votto and a slew of 3B prospects that could move over if needed. I guess you take the best value no matter what, but it would be nice to get a big pitching prospect.

[starpower25]

Well What I do is take best player no matter what. I dont care if its highschool or college position player or pitcher just get the best player we can. I really like SS prospect Crawford from UCLA. There is talent in this draft not nearly as much as last year but its there. I think we will get some solid players early.

Crawford can paly Short great and some scouts thinkhe reminds them of Barry larkin.

[The Duke]

I keep hearing mixed reviews about Crawfords bat. I haven't seen him play live at all so I haven't seen his swing and how it looks, and how he works pitchers, but I have read a few different couting reports. Everybody seems to agree that he has the glove, but i've only read one report that felt pretty good about his bat translating to the majors, and we already have Janish and Cozart to fill that role.

[redvol]

Star - what is your opinion of Michael Griffin? He's had a couple position changes but I've been following and been impressed. He might be a little old for a prospect but only because he went to Baylor for 4 years.

[starpower25]

I like Griffen alot. he is a solid linedrive hitter who could develope into a utility player at the major league level. Could he start ? I dont knwo but he is a guy to watch for sure.

[The Duke]

The Reds seem to have a lot of utility type guys that look decent coming up through the ranks:

Griffin
Gil
Rosales
Valaika

[starpower25]

You can judge a farm system by how talented there utility guys are. I mean once you are considered a utility type in the minors that is a bad thing unless its just because your farm system is so deep. That being said I think both Valiaka and Rossalas could develope to starters at the major league level but because they can paly 3-4 positions that helps there chances at making the show even if they are not starters.

[The Duke]

One of Rosales or Valika look to be the backup RH firstbaseman for a few years starting in 2009 while they are cheap. Both of them can play any infield spot, or a corner outfield spot without much trouble. That type of versitiliy is nice to have, and these guys have more offensive potential than Freel.

[Lark11]

Where does Rosales profile best on defense?

It seems clear that he isn't a shortstop, so where does that leave him? I'm not sure he's got the footwork or range for second, so does that leave him at 3rd?

Obviously, his defensive position will really drive his value as a prospect. If he could handle short, then his bat would make him a superb prospect, but he seems destined for 3rd, where he'll have to outperform Frazier and Francisco.