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Post by The Duke on Apr 3, 2017 7:13:09 GMT -5
My draft board for #2 at the moment is:
Royce Lewis JB Bukauskas Hunter Greene Alex Faedo Adam Haseley Austin Beck Brendan McKay
McKay is the safest, but especially after seeing him live against Virginia, I just don't see a top of the rotation pitcher.
If the Reds don't think Lewis can stick at SS (he's starting to get more believers that he can though) then he'd drop to right around where Beck is at.
Adam Haseley's approach at the plate is incredible. He works at bats like Votto does, except he also runs a 6.5 60 yard and plays plus CF defense. Showing power this year too.
I've seen a lot of Brian Miller for UNC this year since I've been watching a lot of Bukauskas's starts, and he'd be a solid pick at 32 or 38 if we want a CF. Plus defense, good speed, lots of contact, a little pop in his bat.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 6, 2017 9:08:12 GMT -5
Adam Haseley had a very Adam Haseley like midweek going 5-9, HR, 4 RBI, 5 R, BB, K, granted it was against Old Dominion and George Washington.
On the year now Haseley is hitting .410/.507/.718 with 9 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B, 29 RBI, 36 R, 22 BB vs 11 K, 7 SP in 141 plate appearances. And while this midweek competition may have been so so (ODU RPI is 56, GW RPI is 218, his bigger game was against ODU (3-4, HR, 3 RBI, 4 R), Virginia has the #23 strength of schedule on the year, so they have played respectable competition and he has produced elite results.
On a side note, North Carolina has the #3 strength of schedule, and against that schedule, JB Bukauskas has been dominant.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 7, 2017 8:00:45 GMT -5
It's Friday, which means most of the top college arms are throwing today
JB Bukauskas will face Boston College (RPI 114) at 2:30p Alex Faedo will face Tennessee (RPI 57) at 5:00p Brendan McKay will face 23rd ranked Wake Forest (RPI 14) at 6:00p
Jeren Kendall faced #12 South Carolina and Will Crowe and went 2-5, 2 K, 2 SB, one of his hits being an infield hit to the second baseman. His average is up to .324 now, but it's a little inflated with his BABIP being .361. Speed does help with BABIP, albeit I think that benefit is lessened against MLB defenses.
Hunter Greene's team plays today and by the looks of it I think he is going to pitch today, but it's tough to tell with high school teams. They won't play again it looks like until the Boras Classic which starts on 4/18
On the 5th Royce Lewis had a single, triple, and 2 RBI leading his team to a 9-4 win. His team doesn't keep stats on MaxPreps, so I'm not sure how his overall stat line is, but everything I'm ready is still very positive. He plays again today.
Austin Beck's team won 16-0 in 3 innings on Tuesday, but I can't find any mention of what Beck did personally in that game.
Jordan Adell had a 3 HR game this week where he was 4-5 overall. He has 7 HR so far and has not struck out much at all so far this season. The big knock on him coming into this spring was questions about his hit tool. He could be a very fast riser if he answers those questions. Plus speed, plus power, plus defense, plus plus arm (he's been up to 97 on the mound, but he's a position player as a pro). The other big question though is what kind of competition is he facing in Kentucky.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 7, 2017 13:19:13 GMT -5
Nathan Rode from Prep Baseball Report (and previously from Baseball America) is at Austin Beck's game today, hoping to get some good stuff from him off of Twitter. The game starts at 6pm, but Rode said he'll be there to watch batting practice as well.
North Carolina's game has been postponed. It will be made up as part of a double header tomorrow. I would guess Bukauskas throws tomorrow, but maybe they try to hold him for Sunday so that in one of the games the bullpen is not needed much.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 7, 2017 22:52:45 GMT -5
Austin Beck hit for the cycle tonight, including a mammoth 400 ft HR to LF Jordon Adell hit an inside the park home run tonight, the dude can fly Hunter Greene with a complete game win tonight on 91 pitches with 13 strikeouts. Supposedly hit 100 mph in the game.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 7, 2017 23:06:42 GMT -5
Alex Faedo started out strong, but then the wheels came off
5.2 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 5 ER, BB, 12 K, hit batter
Brendan McKay had a solid start, but still took the loss since Louisville only managed one run against Wake Forest
7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, BB, 11 K
Jeren Kendall 1-6 tonight, 3 more K's
Adam Haseley continues to rake. 2-4, HR (10), 2 BB, 4 R, SB, K
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Post by The Duke on Apr 8, 2017 23:02:12 GMT -5
JB Bukauskas is mortal
4 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 R, 5 ER, 5 K, hit batter
Didn't see the game, I'll have to read about it.
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Post by floydgator on Apr 9, 2017 12:42:27 GMT -5
We should absolutely not draft any Gator who is supposed to hit. Holy crap. This offense is putrid.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 9, 2017 22:51:50 GMT -5
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Post by kinsm on Apr 10, 2017 0:07:36 GMT -5
Greene, Bukauskas, Hiura my 1,2,3 thus far
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Post by The Duke on Apr 10, 2017 7:30:13 GMT -5
Hiura is an interesting guy as a bat first 2B, but the problem there is that a lot of scouts aren't convinced he stays in the dirt. His offensive profile takes a hit if he has to move to LF, but he's still one of the best pure bats in the draft. Possibly the best hit tool in the draft, albeit his K numbers in college are a little high for me to get behind that notion. Adam Haseley is a plus defender with a big arm in CF who is hitting just as well as Hiura with a smaller BABIP and strikes out half as often. That said, I wouldn't be heartbroken if the Reds surprised everyone and took Hiura, because the bat is good. That the draft ranking people have guys like Haseley and Hiura as late first round picks is baffling to me while the simultaneously gush praise upon Jeren Kendall who is on pace to strike out 60+ times for the third straight year against college pitching because of "tools". Kendall is hitting .309 with a .367 BABIP. Seems a lot like a Drew Stubbs with maybe a touch more power and a little less defense.
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Post by The Duke on Apr 10, 2017 7:55:09 GMT -5
At the moment my draft board would be:
Hunter Greene Royce Lewis JB Bukauskas Austin Beck Adam Haseley Jordon Adell Brendan McKay Alex Faedo
I'm coming around of Hunter Greene being the clear top talent in the draft. I've been able to find a lot more video on him over the last two weeks and I've been able to see the plus breaking ball a lot more. In his last start he didn't throw a fastball that was under 94 in his 7 inning pitched and sat 95-97. He's 6'4", 205 lbs and 17 years old. Not out of the realm of possibility that there is more velo in his arm. He has the chance to be Syndergaard. Fiery and confident kid on the mound too, with great makeup and character. If the Twins pass on him, he should be the pick.
Royce Lewis has been ticking all the boxes as someone who can be the top bat in the draft. More and more scouts think he has a chance to be a plus defensive shortstop, he doesn't chase pitches so he's getting walked a ton, he has very good bat speed and shows above average power, and his hit tool is regarded as one of the best in the draft.
JB Bukauskas finally had an off game, but the three plus pitches are still there. His slider is MLB filthy right now, the fastball is plus because of how well he locates it and is consistently 93-96 late into his starts, and the changeup has been a real weapon for him this year.
Austin Beck is getting comps to Mike Trout as a high school player. Physically imposing CF showing huge power. I've seen video of him taking a 92 mph fastball low and away opposite field for a 390 foot home run. That he missed last years showcase circuit with his acl injury (an injury that he has shown to be completely healed this year, no restrictions playing CF and he's put up 6.5 60 times since then) seems to be the big knock on him. In a draft where the college hitting has a lot of question marks, the prep bats have been strong at the top.
Adam Haseley seems to be everything the draft prognosticators like to say about Jeren Kendall, but without the strikeouts. He is a plus defender in CF, has a plus arm (he also pitches for Virginia), has good speed, is hitting .402/.506/.709 this year on a .394 BABIP (Kendall hits .309 on a .367 BABIP), has shown increased power on a larger frame than Kendall, has 26 BB vs 13 K (Kendall has 40 K's against similar strength of schedule) and looks a lot more in control at the plate. That they say he is a late 1st round pick is baffling to me. I think teams are crazy if he doesn't go in the top 12.
Jordon Adell is the top athlete in the draft, even over Hunter Greene if you are just talking raw athleticism. He is big, he has plus plus speed (he hit an inside the park grand slam yesterday, his second inside the park home run this weekend), along with Austin Beck has some of the best raw power in the draft, has a plus plus arm (he's been up to 97 on the mound, but he's all hitter as a pro). The level of competition is questionable in Kentucky but he has made a ton of contact this season so far and his hit tool was the biggest question. It still is with a lack of elite arms that he is facing now, but his ceiling is as high as anyone in the draft.
Brendan McKay is talked up as the second best player in the draft as he is so good at the plate and so polished on the mound. Having seem him live a couple times now, I'm not sold on the curveball as a plus MLB pitch. It's not a bad curve by any means, but I can't get over my impression of him as a left handed Mike Leake. And while he may be the safest pick in the draft, the Reds need a game changer at #2. He may be Votto lite at the plate, but the Reds would certainly take him as a pitcher, so his hitting prowess would largely be irrelevant, even in the national league where he might get as many as 85-90 at bats over a season. I'm just not sold on him as anything more than a mid rotation pitcher.
Alex Faedo at his best can match any prospect on this list, but the problem has been he hasn't been at his best quite a bit over the last 12 months. Even before his knee surgeries over the fall/winter his velo was sporadic deep into his starts, and it has been very inconsistent this season, some games topping our at 92 mph. If he was consistently 94-96 with his advanced slider and changeup, both swing and miss pitches when they are on, then he'd be the odds on favorite to go #1. He's not though, and he isn't a great overall athlete either, looking awkward defensively at times and while not having a bad body, it isn't a great one athletically either. The upside is a front of the rotation pitcher, just too many question marks for my liking.
My big board is pretty fluid and I admittedly don't get to see these guys nearly as much as actual scouts, but I trust my eyes on what I do see when I get the chance.
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Post by floydgator on Apr 10, 2017 9:15:24 GMT -5
Alex will be fine over the long haul, but he's not legitimately in play for #1 or #2 right now, imo. I'm on the Hunter Greene train. Greene or bust.
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Post by kinsm on Apr 10, 2017 11:32:08 GMT -5
Hiura is an interesting guy as a bat first 2B, but the problem there is that a lot of scouts aren't convinced he stays in the dirt. His offensive profile takes a hit if he has to move to LF, but he's still one of the best pure bats in the draft. Possibly the best hit tool in the draft, albeit his K numbers in college are a little high for me to get behind that notion. Adam Haseley is a plus defender with a big arm in CF who is hitting just as well as Hiura with a smaller BABIP and strikes out half as often. That said, I wouldn't be heartbroken if the Reds surprised everyone and took Hiura, because the bat is good. That the draft ranking people have guys like Haseley and Hiura as late first round picks is baffling to me while the simultaneously gush praise upon Jeren Kendall who is on pace to strike out 60+ times for the third straight year against college pitching because of "tools". Kendall is hitting .309 with a .367 BABIP. Seems a lot like a Drew Stubbs with maybe a touch more power and a little less defense. When I see Hiura, I see major league hitter - which the Reds need. I think the Reds could probably sign him for 5M which would double their pool for their #2 pick.
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Post by schellis on Apr 10, 2017 11:36:57 GMT -5
I want JB Bukauskas, seems like a front of the rotation arm which I think the Reds need and I think he'd come quickly. They seem to have a lot of middle at best but probably 4/5 starters or bullpen guys. I'd want a high contact back with their next pick.
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