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Post by kinsm on Mar 18, 2017 6:31:39 GMT -5
"Oversigning" will be mostly a thing of the past, the new slots eliminate most of the power teams had to do that.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 18, 2017 22:35:59 GMT -5
Alex Faedo got beat up in his start yesterday. I didn't get to see the game, but according to BA his usual control just wasn't there. 4.1 IP, 4 H, 6 BB, 6 ER, 5 K, 106 pitches. Given the inconsistent velo this year as well as some up and down performance, he's falling behind the other top options a bit. Faedo was consistently 92-95 last year and routinely topped out at 96. This year he's been 88-92 for the most part and has topped out at 94. Those knee surgeries may have had a bigger effect than predicted.
JB Bukauskas on the other hand showing once again he may have the best stuff in amateur baseball. Not his best start as he gave up 4 runs, albeit only 2 were earned, on 3 hits and 2 BB in 7 IP (99 pitches). He did, however, get 14 strikeouts in those 7 innings in under 100 pitches, and he did get the W to go to 3-0. 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 4 R, 2 ER, 99 pitches, 3 fly out vs 4 ground out. His changeup has been more consistent this year (it was actually his better secondary pitch coming out of high school) and his slider is a legit 70 grade, and he can get swings and misses with all 3 pitches.
McKay was dominant on Friday. 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 12 K, 114 pitches, 11 fly outs vs 2 ground outs. 1-2 at the plate with 2 BB Friday and on Saturday he was 0-2 with 3 BB and a R. McKay might have the best command and control in the draft this year, so I wouldn't be heartbroken if the Reds took him at #2 like in John Manuel's latest mock top 10, but I still prefer Bukauskas. I am starting to think McKay might be a better option than Faedo though. On the season McKay is 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA and 41 K vs 6 BB in 25 IP so far.
If we draft Jeren Kendall, i'll be legit pissed off. The guy is going to be a 200 K guy at the big league level.
In his first 3 games this year Royce Lewis is 3-7 with 5 walks and 4 stolen bases. 1 double that I know of, and I don't believe he has struck out yet.
Hunter Greene threw 4 IP on Friday with 6 K vs 0 BB on 2 Hits giving up 0 Runs. He did hit one batter, but also had a pickoff. He was 0-2 at the plate with a walk and a run, and had an error in the field. The walk was an intentional walk. He only threw 52 pitches in the start, topping out at 100 mph in the third. Here are some video highlights of the game:
As of right now, my draft board for #2 would be:
Royce Lewis JB Buskauskas Hunter Greene Brendan McKay Alex Faedo
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Mar 19, 2017 18:08:35 GMT -5
I think it's crazy not to have Greene #1 at this point. Personally.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 20, 2017 7:43:43 GMT -5
I think it's crazy not to have Greene #1 at this point. Personally. Prep pitchers are volatile. Even if everything goes right, it's likely 4 years until they contribute. Tyler Kolek was supposed to be a 100 mph throwing stud as well. That said, he may very well be the pick, the ceiling is super high, I certainly wouldn't be upset. Buskauskas is likely ready by mid 2018 and has a chance to have 3 plus pitches, 2 of them with a 70 grade. His slider is the best pitch in this draft, and he has a longer track record against far superior competition. My top 3 is all super close, and honestly I wouldn't be too upset with McKay either, albeit I do have him a tier below Lewis, Buskauskas, and Greene.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 23, 2017 9:37:20 GMT -5
Baseball America has released their first Top 100 Draft Prospects. Or at least their first combined list, they had previously released the top 100 college and high school players independently. This is at least an update and a single list. BA 2017 Draft Top 100That would be the Reds if John Manuel is right, albeit he's not one of the guys at BA that I trust. Greene is a Plus Plus character kid. Read up on him sometime. If they are considering Wright, Kendall, or Smith, then they are idiots. I imagine that is just a negotiating ploy. "Oh, there are so many similar options" Pfffft. Rank | Player | Pos | School | 1 | Hunter Greene | RHP/SS | CA HS | 2 | Brendan McKay | LHP/1B | Louisville | 3 | JB Bukauskas | RHP | North Carolina | 4 | Austin Beck | OF | NC HS | 5 | Jeren Kendall | OF | Vanderbilt | 6 | Kyle Wright | RHP | Vanderbilt | 7 | Royce Lewis | SS/CF | CA HS | 8 | Nick Pratto | 1B | CA HS | 9 | Alex Faedo | RHP | Florida | 10 | Seth Romero | LHP | Houston | 13 | MacKenzie Gore | LHP | NC HS | 14 | Jordan Adell | OF | KY HS | 15 | Heliot Ramos | OF | PR HS | 23 | Shane Baz | RHP | TX HS | 24 | Logan Warmouth | SS | North Carolina | 26 | Brendan Little | LHP | State JC of Florida | 34 | Drew Waters | OF | GA HS | 39 | Jacob Heatherly | LHP | AL HS | 45 | Jake Eder | LHP | FL HS |
Thoughts-Not sure why Royce Lewis fell to #7. He's only played 3 games, has yet to strike out, and has walked 5 times. -I should probably start tracking Beck, he has huge helium right now. Getting Mike Trout comps for large athletic CF with big power. -MacKenzie Gore is another name that is flying up boards right now. Just had a 15 K perfect game where he only threw 53 pitches. It was a run rule game. Lefty up to 93 already. -No idea how the Vanderbilt boys are still top 10. Wright has regressed and Kendall is on pace to strike out over 25% of the time against mostly pitchers who won't be pros. -Some of the other ones I listed are guys I am hoping are around at 32 and 38 and have been following a bit.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 23, 2017 10:37:30 GMT -5
Upcoming games for top draft targets:
Brendan McKay pitches Friday night against unranked NC State
JB Buskauskas pitches Friday night against Miami (Miami has had a dreadful offense this year so it could be another flash night for JB)
Alex Faedo pitches Friday night against 5th ranked LSU. We'll see if his velo is any better than it has been as of late. His control was uncharacteristically off in his last start and he was more 88-92.
Hunter Greene plays Friday, I would guess he is pitching since it's been 7 days from his last start, but I don't know that for sure.
Royce Lewis plays Thursday night in a makeup for a game postponed from Wednesday night, and also plays on Saturday.
Austin Beck plays both Friday and Saturday.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 23, 2017 12:18:04 GMT -5
Following the upcoming draft would be so much more boring without The Duke's excellent updates and commentary. And I really mean that. Regarding the Twins advertising all the different appealing options, call it what you want, 'negotiating ploy'. I'm not clear what, if any, incentive there is for the Twins to publicly announce which guys they've even ruled out. Might as well keep scouting Vanderbilt, as one of the top programs in the country (who also, I believe, plays in a talented conference). As you're aware messaging gets distributed everywhere, not just to people who fully understand it. Wright and Kendall's stock may have dropped like rocks, but they're still on the top of outdated yet-to-be updated lists. I'm not sure saying that you've ruled out the projected #1 overall pick from last year before the regular MLB season starts is particularly great messaging If anything it implies they have limited resources that need to be diverted elsewhere, which needlessly promotes the impression of incompetence... Who knows what, if any, familiarity the top Twins executives (not including the amateur scouts and crosscheckers and everything) have with these guys, who they don't need to decide on for months. In the Reds' case I don't expect Williams to currently know much about what/how Kendall and Wright are doing... closer to draft time he and the other execs, assistant GMs, should travel to see the top targets identified by the scouts. So, yeah, rant on a really minor note... that I nevertheless found interesting... OF Austin Beck, I haven't been able to find a lot about him... is he a CF going forward? He apparently has some power and is a fast runner, but is very aggressive? I don't even know what to make of outdated reports... he's come back strong from an injury (torn ACL or whatever?), but I have no idea if previous reports were needlessly down on him for that?
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Post by The Duke on Mar 23, 2017 12:30:54 GMT -5
From what I've read on Beck he's a solid bet to stick in CF. He's already 210 pounds, and you don't have to worry about projecting future power, because he already has a ton of it. Baseball America in their mock top 10 dropped 70 grades on his power, speed, and defense. The big question mark is his lack of track record with wood bats as he missed last years summer and fall circuits with his injury, and I've yet to find a clear grade on his hit tool as of yet. I've been putting out some feelers on Twitter to the guys I trust to see if I can get a solid response on what scouts think about his hit tool. He's pretty consistently mentioned as a 5 tool player, so I would assume it's at least close to average or above. I've read his arm is above average. There is some video of him on youtube and he looks pretty fast, so the injury didn't seem to have long term effects on that. There's also video of him taking an outside pitch to the opposite field for an easy HR, and then destroying a pitch to LF with some of the best bat speed you'll see from a high school kid on Redsminorleagues.com today. I still need to dig deeper on Beck, but as long as he doesn't have Donovan Tate level hit tool questions, he's absolutely worth considering at #2.
Level of competition is in his favor a bit as well for a high school kid as North Carolina is ridiculously deep in prep talent this year.
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Post by oldschoolstyle on Mar 23, 2017 13:07:04 GMT -5
I think it's crazy not to have Greene #1 at this point. Personally. Prep pitchers are volatile. Even if everything goes right, it's likely 4 years until they contribute. Tyler Kolek was supposed to be a 100 mph throwing stud as well. That said, he may very well be the pick, the ceiling is super high, I certainly wouldn't be upset. Buskauskas is likely ready by mid 2018 and has a chance to have 3 plus pitches, 2 of them with a 70 grade. His slider is the best pitch in this draft, and he has a longer track record against far superior competition. My top 3 is all super close, and honestly I wouldn't be too upset with McKay either, albeit I do have him a tier below Lewis, Buskauskas, and Greene. I get what you're saying, but Greene has the potential to be the best pitcher in the game. Lefty, Righty, HS, College... Just don't think it matters. You have to take those kind of swings. Also, say he doesn't pan out. His value doesn't completely disappear. Some team would think they could fix him. So unless his elbow blows up, it's not all or nothing which is important. The Reds need value in their organization. Can't afford to not get a player at #2 that won't impact the major league roster.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 23, 2017 13:25:20 GMT -5
Prep pitchers are volatile. Even if everything goes right, it's likely 4 years until they contribute. Tyler Kolek was supposed to be a 100 mph throwing stud as well. That said, he may very well be the pick, the ceiling is super high, I certainly wouldn't be upset. Buskauskas is likely ready by mid 2018 and has a chance to have 3 plus pitches, 2 of them with a 70 grade. His slider is the best pitch in this draft, and he has a longer track record against far superior competition. My top 3 is all super close, and honestly I wouldn't be too upset with McKay either, albeit I do have him a tier below Lewis, Buskauskas, and Greene. I get what you're saying, but Greene has the potential to be the best pitcher in the game. Lefty, Righty, HS, College... Just don't think it matters. You have to take those kind of swings. Also, say he doesn't pan out. His value doesn't completely disappear. Some team would think they could fix him. So unless his elbow blows up, it's not all or nothing which is important. The Reds need value in their organization. Can't afford to not get a player at #2 that won't impact the major league roster. Valid points. I'll be pleased as punch if we draft Hunter Greene. The only plausible pick I've heard right now where I would be legit pissed off is if the Reds took Jeren Kendall.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 23, 2017 14:54:38 GMT -5
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Post by The Duke on Mar 23, 2017 15:10:24 GMT -5
The MLB Pipeline Inbox had a heavy draft flavor to it this week, and it was manned by Jim Callis, who's opinion I value more than anyone else's at MLB Pipeline. MLB Pipeline Inbox 3/23Seems like Callis isn't quite as high on Beck as the guys at BA.
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Post by redsfanman on Mar 23, 2017 17:36:41 GMT -5
Do we get a revised draft board? Austin Beck in, Faedo out?
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Post by The Duke on Mar 24, 2017 8:27:49 GMT -5
Here's a draft report on Royce Lewis from Minor League Ball that came out today. His team won 7-2 last night, but I haven't found how Lewis did as of yet. 2017 MLB Draft Report: Royce Lewis, SS-OF, San Juan Capistrano, CaliforniaA ceiling of a high OBP SS with 20 HR pop from the right side would be a pretty special player. It'd also help balance out some lefties like Votto, Winker, and Trammell.
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Post by The Duke on Mar 24, 2017 9:34:08 GMT -5
Scott Boras is expected to represent both Royce Lewis and JB Buskauskas. I don't care, take the talent.
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