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Post by redsfanman on Feb 19, 2017 14:23:23 GMT -5
I'm higher on Royce Lewis than I was before after listening to a recent Baseball America podcast. I didn't know what to make of his listing as a SS/CF as a guy who's played 3b in high school, they they seemed to feel strongly that he could handle pretty much any position on the field... SS, 3b, 2b, CF... and the biggest threat to his sticking at shortstop wasn't inability to handle that position, but speed that could make him an elite CF.
On the same podcast the college arms were mostly described as similar guys whose ordering depends entirely on personal (or organizational) preference... between Faedo, Wright, Butkauskas, and Houck... rather than any being notably better than the other. One interesting point was that they seemed to think that Alex Faedo might be better than the other guys later in his MLB career, but not earlier.
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Post by floydgator on Feb 20, 2017 14:02:17 GMT -5
I've never, ever watched a game of college baseball online. A few random games in person. But, I'm intrigued, I'll watch a bit of it. In addition to Kendall and Wright, 3b Will Toffey was listed as the #80 college player by Baseball America. The Vanderbilt Commodores play San Diego, for whom C Riley Adams is listed at #37 on that same list. Neither made the MLB Pipeline top 50, at this point... but hey, if I'm watching I want to have some idea of who might go in the early rounds on draft day... It looks like the Florida Gators live-stream their games for free, too, but I'm not quite clear. Their season starts tomorrow (Friday the 17th) at 6:30. I read (in an Orlando newspaper) Alex Faedo will be pitching that night, which I assume means he's healthy and recovered from knee surgery, rather than merely speculating because he's their best pitcher. And I assume JJ Schwarz and Dalton Guthrie should be playing? (Really I'm just digging for confirmation from Duke or floydgator). yes, Faedo is healthy. He was mediocre at best in game 1. He still needs to work on throwing strikes and not getting too cute. His health was fine, he just threw way too many pitches to not get enough guys out. JJ and Guthrie had good weekends and the rest of the arms were dominant. Singer and Kowar will be potential first rounders in the 2018 draft. Kowar is nasty. William and Mary is not a bad team, but you can't tell much about your team after a 3 game sweep of them. Houck was awful in game 1 for Mizzou, apparently.
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Post by floydgator on Feb 20, 2017 14:03:25 GMT -5
BTW, most Gator games are on SECN+. I have a Fire TV (3 actually, and 2 rokus. No, I don't have a good reason for that) and watch a lot of their games that way (through the watch ESPN app.)
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 20, 2017 19:13:19 GMT -5
Jeren Kendall went 5/15 over the first weekend, but with 2 BB and 5 Ks. He hit a couple of triples.
It sounds like most of the upper-echelon college players... Kendall, Wright, Faedo... hurt (or at least didn't help) their case in their 2017 debuts...
JB Bukaukas (#6 on MLBPipeline list) pitched 6 shutout innings in his season debut with 3 H, 1 BB, 10 Ks, throwing 99 pitches.
I have an AppleTV, so I also found the Florida games available through the ESPN app. Nice!
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Post by The Duke on Feb 20, 2017 22:03:24 GMT -5
Yeah, the BA guys were really pumping up Royce Lewis in that podcast. 6 and 7's across the board and maybe the best hit tool in the draft. If that's true, I have trouble believing he doesn't go 1-1. At either SS or CF, that's a marquee type of player. Lewis and Greene are on top of the board for me.
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Post by floydgator on Feb 24, 2017 10:34:54 GMT -5
Based on absolutely nothing, I'm hoping for Hunter Greene.
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Post by The Duke on Feb 24, 2017 13:58:03 GMT -5
My ever changing big board for the draft looks like this......for the moment:
Royce Lewis, SS/CF, CA HS Hunter Greene, RHP HS JB Buskauskus, RHP, North Carolina Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida Jeren Kendall, CF, Vanderbilt Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Guys I have my eye on for 32/38:
Shane Baz, RHP, TX HS Keston Hiura, 2B, UC Irvine Garrett Mitchell, OF, CA HS Taylor Walls, SS, Florida State Quentin Holmes, CF, NY HS Brendon Little, LHP, Florida JC Ricardo De LA Torre, SS, PR HS Drew Waters, CF, GA HS Peter Solomon, RHP, Notre Dame Jake Eder, LHP, FL HS Alex Sheff, RHP, TX HS
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Post by floydgator on Feb 24, 2017 21:53:42 GMT -5
Move Alex back up your list. 2 hits, 1 BB, 8 Ks, 119 pitches:
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Alex Faedo was better in his second start.
Much better.
Faedo pitched a career-high 8 2/3 scoreless innings as Florida defeated Miami 1-0 on Friday night at McKethan Stadium. Faedo departed with two on, two out in the top of the ninth as Frank Rubio came on in relief.
"He was awfully special,'' UF head coach Kevin O'Sullivan said. "He was focused, he was prepared. He spent a lot of time watching video. He worked awfully hard this week."
Rubio struck out Miami's Romy Gonzalez for the final out as O'Sullivan won the 400th game of his career.
The Gators scored the game's only run in the third inning on Jonathan India's RBI single to plate Dalton Guthrie. Florida scored when Guthrie drew a one-out walk off Miami starter Jesse Lepore (6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K) and advanced to third on Austin Langworthy's single. India followed with a hot shot toward third that bounced off Miami third baseman Edgar Michelangeli's glove and bounced into left field.
Faedo did the rest to defeat the Hurricanes with a memorable outing for the second consecutive season. Faedo pitched 6 1/3 hitless innings and struck out 12 in Florida's 2-0 win at Miami on Feb. 28, 2016.
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Post by floydgator on Feb 24, 2017 22:15:58 GMT -5
In case you are keeping score at home, Faedo has now given up 1 ER in 25 innings vs. the Canes.
We play them a lot. We beat them a lot, too. 25-11 in the Sully era.
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 24, 2017 23:11:03 GMT -5
Kyle Wright was also much better in his second start, tonight... 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K.
Jeren Kendall went 2/5 in the game with a solo homerun. 0 BB, 0 K. So far he's 8/24 on the season with 3 BB and 7 Ks.
Based on very little I'm currently hoping for Royce Lewis.
It feels like there's a recent history of highly-drafted high school pitchers really disappointing, notably 2014 #2 overall pick Tyler Kolek. Brady Aiken, although maybe he'll continue to come back strong from his injury. Maybe Ian Anderson, Riley Pint, Braxton Garrett, and Matt Manning from 2016 will change that, but it's too early to know. Kohl Stewart (#4 in 2013) only recently started pitching well. Max Fried, the first high school pitcher (selected #7) from 2012 has missed a lot of time. 2011, first high school pitcher was Dylan Bundy at #4.... he had an okay 2016, but the career so far hasn't been very impressive. Jameson Taillon was #2 overall in 2010, missed 2014 and 2015, then made a strong debut in 2016. Even the ones I listed who have become good big league pitchers hardly took linear paths to the majors.
In my opinion the most regrettable draft pick for the Reds since I became a fan in 1999 was 2002 #3 overall pick Chris Gruler, whose career was ended early by shoulder injuries. Sure they've made questionable picks like Ryan Wagner (#14, 2003). And they gambled the 2001 #20 pick on Jeremy Sowers, who they couldn't sign, and who never pitched well anyway. Nick Howard (#19, 2014) is a total bust, but not for the reason anyone should've seen - a total inability to throw strikes like that is uncommon. They took Mike Leake over Mike Trout (and some similar story for most teams when you look back in hindsight). And some of the arguably successful big leaguers (Stubbs, Bruce, Bailey, Mesoraco, Alonso, Grandal) have been unpopular at times. But Gruler, back in 2002, was a top-of-the-draft pick, at which point it feels far more urgent to get SOMETHING than if you pick 15, 20... 30. I don't recall (maybe someone else remembers differently, I didn't follow it closely at the time) Gruler being a poorly received pick or anything, just a typical high-upside high school arm. But he totally imploded, for reasons irrelevant to his upside, or scouting reports (I don't believe that some teams knew his shoulder would blow up while others didn't, Reds were just the unlucky victim). In my opinion that's the single biggest disparity between what the Reds got and SHOULD have gotten out of a draft pick, and I don't want it to be repeated.
That's something I like about Nick Senzel, I think the risk is extremely low compared to other candidates like AJ Puk, Kyle Lewis, Riley Pint, and Jason Groome.
So... Gruler... Kolek... I'm paranoid about a top 3 high school arm going totally bust. Or, like Dylan Bundy, Aiken, Kohl Stewart, Jameson Taillon, seemingly feigning bust status for at least a year. That's another reason I'm hoping the Twins take Hunter Greene. In addition to the pesky pressure to play him at shortstop every time he has a poor outing. History of other guys isn't Hunter Greene's fault, but it's hard to disassociate him with the risks of other guys in similar positions.
So, Royce Lewis. It sounds like he can do everything well. It seems like most highly regarded high school hitters taken high (like, first 10-ish picks) in the draft end up amounting to.... something. You have to go back to Bubba Starling (#5 in 2011) to find one who didn't... maybe Alex Jackson (#6, 2014). So, unless Greene's value is so drastically above Lewis, I'd feel more comfortable with the position player. Of course that's largely gut feelings and pessimism rather than solid information or accurately seeing the future.
Please Twins, take the Hunter Greene decision out of the Reds' hands.
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Post by redsfanman on Feb 24, 2017 23:26:24 GMT -5
Duke, aren't you still worried about Bukauskas being seen as a likely reliever? Or have you heard something to the contrary? Or just feel that he's pitched that much better than the other guys in the first week, despite the risk?
Everywhere seems to portray Brendan McKay as a kinda low upside guy, have you heard differently? Again that pesky two-way player situation, having great all around baseball talent that extends to hitting sounds nice, but hitting ability won't help him to be a better pitcher. He's not even on my list of serious candidates, until I hear something new to put him on. Maybe if he's giving the impression of being the next Mike Leake...
Regarding Keston Hiura, what does lingering elbow pain from a partially-torn UCL do to a position player's value? That'll be interesting to see. If he needs Tommy John surgery in the coming months is that a reason not to take him? Or a reason why he'd slip to 32/38? How much does it hurt his value if he's forced to DH because he can't play the field?
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Post by The Duke on Feb 25, 2017 11:22:34 GMT -5
I'm no pitching expert, but the more I see of Bukauskus, I don't see his mechanics as so fundamentally flawed that he is doomed to the bullpen. If you think he can stick as a starter, then his stuff is worth the consideration. Plus fastball and double plus slider. How his changeup and control play this year will go a long way to determine his draft status. I saw about half of his first start and have been looking for what video I can find on him online. He's at least worth discussing imo.
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Doom
Dante Bichette
Posts: 60
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Post by Doom on Feb 25, 2017 17:22:11 GMT -5
I'm interested in the top college pitchers for this draft. I would think the reds regime would be as well given the Senzel and Trammell picks last year. Could be heavy pitchers picked early this time around. All the talk seems to be for the high school guys. Hoping someone besides Buakuaskas steps up...his size concerns me.
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Post by The Duke on Feb 25, 2017 20:31:15 GMT -5
Jeren Kendall 0 for 4 with 4 K today against UIC. Yikes. Jonathan Mayo interviewed Taylor Trammell on the 2/24 MLB Pipeline Podcast. It's towards the beginning, it's a solid interview, Trammell comes off very smart and grounded. It's worth a listen. MLB Pipeline Podcast PageBrady Singer might be the first pick next year. Stupid good first two starts for Florida, and a fastball hitting 97. JB Bukauskus last night 7 IP, 3H,1 BB, 0 R, 11 K Hunter Greene 5 IP, 3H,2BB,7K,2R today. His last pitch on the day was a 97 mph fastball for a K. Also played SS and hit a grand grand slam
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Post by floydgator on Feb 27, 2017 14:05:44 GMT -5
In case you are keeping score at home, Faedo has now given up 1 ER in 25 innings vs. the Canes. We play them a lot. We beat them a lot, too. 25-11 in the Sully era. Updated, 27-11 after another sweep. Miami scored 2 runs all weekend. Good thing, b/c we didn't hit.
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