|
Post by The Duke on Jun 2, 2017 13:04:20 GMT -5
That's the absolute best case scenario though. The odds are greater for 2022 or after. Mindset, stuff, intelligence, and coach ability I think this kid could do the best case. Doesn't strike me as a Homer Bailey, and I don't think he has the control issues that Stephenson has. I just hope that when the time comes that he gives the Reds a few extra years before escaping Cincinnati since it sounds like he has no interest in being drafted by the Reds. What someone wants when they are 17 vs what they want when they are 28 can be wildly different things. That's a next decade problem.
|
|
|
Post by schellis on Jun 2, 2017 13:05:50 GMT -5
Mindset, stuff, intelligence, and coach ability I think this kid could do the best case. Doesn't strike me as a Homer Bailey, and I don't think he has the control issues that Stephenson has. I just hope that when the time comes that he gives the Reds a few extra years before escaping Cincinnati since it sounds like he has no interest in being drafted by the Reds. What someone wants when they are 17 vs what they want when they are 28 can be wildly different things. That's a next decade problem. Very true. I doubt that drafted Joey Votto would be willing to play for the Reds his entire career, and likely would have been thinking about how many years do I have to do this before I can sign with Toronto.
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 13:22:01 GMT -5
Greene would start next year in Dayton, but I disagree with you on the promotion. If he's dominating, I could see him skipping high A entirely. Which could put him on track to be in the bigs in 2019. I know what you're thinking. That's insane. But if we are in contention, and if we are aggressive with his 2019 assignment, it is not out of the realm of possibilities we promote a 19/20 year old throwing easy triple digits to help the BP. It's insane, whomever drafts him will baby his arm.
|
|
|
Post by schellis on Jun 2, 2017 13:27:50 GMT -5
Greene would start next year in Dayton, but I disagree with you on the promotion. If he's dominating, I could see him skipping high A entirely. Which could put him on track to be in the bigs in 2019. I know what you're thinking. That's insane. But if we are in contention, and if we are aggressive with his 2019 assignment, it is not out of the realm of possibilities we promote a 19/20 year old throwing easy triple digits to help the BP. It's insane, whomever drafts him will baby his arm. You can baby a arm while still moving him up the two aren't exclusive.
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 13:29:11 GMT -5
It's insane, whomever drafts him will baby his arm. You can baby a arm while still moving him up the two aren't exclusive. Why the hell would you want to promote a player under 21 when they cant come anywhere close to pitching 180+ innings?
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 13:29:46 GMT -5
Unless you want him to become a closer, something the Reds are great at doing with their big pitching additions as of late.
|
|
|
Post by schellis on Jun 2, 2017 13:38:42 GMT -5
Unless you want him to become a closer, something the Reds are great at doing with their big pitching additions as of late. How many kids or backend starters are hitting 180 plus innings? If he can get major league hitters out the Reds will call him up even if he's limited to 150-160 innings, they'll just get creative with AAA stints to get the extra year. Felix Hernandez (I know aiming high) was called up at 19, threw 172 innings between AAA and Majors, and was at 190 at 20-21 then 200 and above. Of course he's a horse (or was) Let the pitcher determine his level if he is dominating a level they aren't learning anything.
|
|
|
Post by The Duke on Jun 2, 2017 13:38:57 GMT -5
Unless you want him to become a closer, something the Reds are great at doing with their big pitching additions as of late. For Chapman they deserve all the blame for that. For Iglesias, I think his arm just couldn't hold up on a starters load. The Reds were one of the few teams who thought he might be able to start. Still well worth what we paid for him for what he has become as a reliever.
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 13:58:07 GMT -5
Unless you want him to become a closer, something the Reds are great at doing with their big pitching additions as of late. How many kids or backend starters are hitting 180 plus innings? If he can get major league hitters out the Reds will call him up even if he's limited to 150-160 innings, they'll just get creative with AAA stints to get the extra year. Felix Hernandez (I know aiming high) was called up at 19, threw 172 innings between AAA and Majors, and was at 190 at 20-21 then 200 and above. Of course he's a horse (or was) Let the pitcher determine his level if he is dominating a level they aren't learning anything. No, how about we let his arm buildup innings so he can "POTENTIALLY" handle starting in the bigs every fifth day. This is the same nonsense we had 12 months ago when people were projecting Senzel to be the starting 3Bman in 2017 (and he was 3 years older). People are simply not being realistic with their expectations. Which I find surprising, since we are witnessing failures of our top prospects right now.
|
|
|
Post by schellis on Jun 2, 2017 14:05:38 GMT -5
How many kids or backend starters are hitting 180 plus innings? If he can get major league hitters out the Reds will call him up even if he's limited to 150-160 innings, they'll just get creative with AAA stints to get the extra year. Felix Hernandez (I know aiming high) was called up at 19, threw 172 innings between AAA and Majors, and was at 190 at 20-21 then 200 and above. Of course he's a horse (or was) Let the pitcher determine his level if he is dominating a level they aren't learning anything. No, how about we let his arm buildup innings so he can "POTENTIALLY" handle starting in the bigs every fifth day. This is the same nonsense we had 12 months ago when people were projecting Senzel to be the starting 3Bman in 2017 (and he was 3 years older). People are simply not being realistic with their expectations. Which I find surprising, since we are witnessing failures of our top prospects right now. None of those top prospects were rushed really, for the most part they were playing well in AAA, eventually they do need to see how they fair at the major league level. If the kid is pitching well and dominating levels to the point of lets say in 2020 he has something like a 2.20 ERA with 11 k's per nine in AAA, he's already use to working every fifth day but still building up innings, no team is going to have him throwing 200 plus innings in the minors before he can drink. If he's ready and the Reds have a spot open for him why not give him the ball. The only reason I see to hold off would be a service time one or not wanting him to just get good right when he's about to become a free agent. Its not like the Reds are putting him in the rotation in 2018 after he spent the previous half year at Dayton or Billings. And Senzel could easily be the Reds 3B at some point next year, I don't think opening day that's foolish for service time reasons alone, but by the break could happen he should be in AA by the end of this year and perhaps start the year in AAA next.
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 14:12:05 GMT -5
Senzel would likely hit .150 if he were in the bigs right now.
Expecting the Reds to be drafting future mlb regulars (with minimal minor league seasoning) is foolhardy.
|
|
|
Post by schellis on Jun 2, 2017 14:31:06 GMT -5
Senzel would likely hit .150 if he were in the bigs right now. Expecting the Reds to be drafting future mlb regulars (with minimal minor league seasoning) is foolhardy. I don't think anyone is saying right now. That would be a massive jump. He'll hit AA this year, and if he does well there could start the year in AAA next year. If he hits well there then he could be seen sometime around this time next year. Which would be two years after he was drafted. Which isn't a major rush for a advanced college hitter.
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 14:47:22 GMT -5
This is not the NBA where some physical god can step onto the court and hit a jumper, nor is it even the NFL where a likewise physical god can walk onto the field and run into 300 lb. men for a few hours once a week.
The average debut age in the majors is a hair under 25, and for good reason. It takes a hell of a lot more than just physical ability to play in the show. It is rare for a player to debut much younger than that, it is more often than not detrimental to their development and it is unreasonable to expect it.
|
|
|
Post by kinsm on Jun 2, 2017 14:48:52 GMT -5
As Jeff Brantley likes to say, throwing 90+ will get you paid to play the game, it does not guarantee you success against the best hitters in the game.
|
|
|
Post by oldschoolstyle on Jun 2, 2017 14:57:51 GMT -5
Throwing 102 guarantees it. Or at least comes pretty damn close.
|
|