2014-15 OffSeason: Free Agent Contract Predictions

[kinsm]

---It's that time of the year again, below you'll find the 5th Annual installment of my OffSeason contract predictions. If you disagree with any of my predictions - please don't hesitate to let me know.

I have refrained from predicting any international players (I.E. Japanese SP Kenta Maeda - SP Chihiro Kaneko - SS Takashi Toritani, Cuban OF Yasmany Tomas - 2B Hector Olivera - 2B Jose Fernandez, nor Korean SP Kwang-hyun Kim - SP Hyeon-jong Yang - SS Jung-ho Kang).

Teams have the opportunity to make qualifying offers of $15.3 M to their free agents 5pm eastern time today, assuming the player was with the team the entire season. If offered, players must decide whether to accept by November 13th at 5pm eastern time.

Draft compensation could change how some teams value certain free agents but I will not change any of these predictions (with the exception of adding nontenders who I will add when the time is appropriate).

I will continually update this list with who has signed and for what amount, so that everyone can be up to date with who is available and judge me on how well my predictions are fairing. Just as I have the past four OffSeason’s. Link to last year's for reference: redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/13619/season-free-agent-contract-predictions

ESPN, YAHOO, CBSSPORTS, and others will put out similar predictions shortly.





Player (Age) - Contract Prediction

..................................................................................


Catcher


*Russell Martin (32): 5 years / 13M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ TOR (5 years / 82M Total)
A.J. Pierzynski (38): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ ATL (1 year / 2M + Incentives)


Other C'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


J.P. Arencibia (29) - Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
John Baker (34) - Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
John Buck (34) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Doumit (34)
Chris Gimenez (31) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Koyie Hill (36) - Re-Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Nick Hundley (31) - Signed w/ COL (2 years / 6.25M Total)
George Kottaras (32) - Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Gerald Laird (35) - Signed w/ ARI (Minor League Deal)
Jose Molina (40)
Wil Nieves (36) - Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Jordan Pacheco (29) - Re-Signed w/ ARI (Minor League Deal)
Humberto Quintero (35) - Signed w/ BOS (Minor League Deal)
Guillermo Quiroz (33) - Re-Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
David Ross (38) - Signed w/ CHC (2 years / 5M Total)
Geovany Soto (32) - Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Eli Whiteside (35) - RETIRED
Bobby Wilson (32) - Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)

.................................................................................


Firstbaseman


*Adam LaRoche (35): 2 years / 12M AAV - Signed w/ CHW (2 years / 25M Total)
*Michael Cuddyer (36): 2 years / 9M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ NYM (2 years / 21M Total)


Other 1Bman - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Daric Barton (29) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Kyle Blanks (28) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Mike Carp (29) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Corey Hart (33) - Signed w/ PIT (1 year / 2.5M + Incentives)
Jesus Guzman (31) - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Hiroshima Toyo Carp (1 year / 1M Total)
Dan Johnson (35) - Signed w/ HOU (Minor League Deal)
Paul Konerko (39) - RETIRED
Lyle Overbay (38)
Chris Parmelee (27) - Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Carlos Pena (37) - RETIRED
Mark Reynolds (32) - Signed w/ STL (1 year / 2M + Incentives)
Gaby Sanchez (31) - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Rakuten Golden Eagles (1 year / 2.5M + Incentives)
Justin Smoak (28) - Re-Signed w/ TOR (1 year / 1M Total)

....................................................................................


Secondbaseman


*Rickie Weeks (32): 1 year / 7M AAV - Signed w/ SEA (1 year / 2M + Incentives)
*Emilio Bonifacio (30): 2 years / 4M AAV - Signed w/ CHW (1 year + Team Option / 4M Total)
Gordon Beckham: 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ CHW (1 year / 2M Total)


Other 2Bman - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Alexi Casilla (30) - Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Daniel Descalso (28) - Signed w/ COL (2 years / 3.6M + Incentives)
Mark Ellis (38) - RETIRED
Jake Elmore (28) - Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Jonathan Herrera (30) - Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Brandon Hicks (29) - Re-Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Elliot Johnson (31) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Kelly Johnson (33) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Michael Martinez (32) - Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Nick Punto (37) - Signed w/ ARI (Minor League Deal)
Brian Roberts (37) - RETIRED
Marco Scutaro (39)
Dan Uggla (35) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Chris Valaika (29) - Re-Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Josh Wilson (34) - Signed w/ DET (Minor League Deal)

...................................................................................


Shortstop


*Hanley Ramirez (31): 6 years / 20M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ BOS (4 years + Vesting Option / 88M Total)
*Asdrubal Cabrera (29): 3 years / 12M AAV - Signed w/ TB (1 year / 7.5M Total)
*Jed Lowrie (31): 3 years / 9M AAV - Signed w/ HOU (3 years + Team Option / 23M Total)
*Stephen Drew (32): 1 year / 5M AAV - Signed w/ NYY (1 year / 5M + Incentives)


Other SS's - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Clint Barmes (36) - Signed w/ SD (1 year + Team Option / 1.5M Total)
Andres Blanco (31) - Re-Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Reid Brignac (29) - Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Everth Cabrera (28) - Signed w/ BAL (1 year / 2.4M + Incentives)
Rafael Furcal (37) - Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Derek Jeter (41) - RETIRED
Munenori Kawasaki (34) - Re-Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
John McDonald (40) - RETIRED
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Orix Buffaloes (1 year / ?M Total)
Ramiro Pena (29) - Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Omar Quintanilla (33) - Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Adam Rosales (32) - Re-Signed w/ TEX (1 year / .9M Total)
Ramon Santiago (35) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)

....................................................................................


Thirdbaseman


*Pablo Sandoval (28): 6 years / 17M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ BOS (5 years + Team Option / 95M Total)
*Chase Headley (31): 4 years / 12M AAV - Re-Signed w/ NYY (4 years / 52M + Incentives)
Alberto Callaspo (32): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ ATL (1 year / 3M + Incentives)


Other 3Bman - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Josh Bell (28) - Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Eric Chavez (37) - RETIRED
Chris Dominguez (28) - Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Juan Francisco (28) - Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Jack Hannahan (35) - Signed to Play in Korea w/ LG Twins (1 year / 1M Total)
Don Kelly (35) - Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (33) - (NOTE: Lower Back Surgery 5/6/14)
Donnie Murphy (32) - Signed w/ MIL (Minor League Deal)
Chris Nelson (29) - Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Jayson Nix (32) - Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Ian Stewart (30) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Mark Teahen (33) - RETIRED
Kevin Youkilis (36) - RETIRED

....................................................................................


Leftfielder


*Melky Cabrera (30): 5 years / 14M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ CHW (3 years / 42M Total)
*Nelson Cruz (34): 4 years / 14M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ SEA (4 years / 58M Total)
*Mike Morse (33): 3 years / 9M AAV - Signed w/ MIA (2 years / 16M + Incentives)
*Josh Willingham (36): 1 year / 5M AAV - RETIRED
Delmon Young (29): 1 year / 4M AAV - Re-Signed w/ BAL (1 year / 2.25M + Incentives)


Other LF'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Tyler Colvin (29) - Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Chris Dickerson (33) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Andy Dirks (29) - Re-Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Cole Gillespie (30) - Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Jonny Gomes (34) - Signed w/ ATL (1 year + Vesting Option / 4M Total)
Scott Hairston (35)
Reed Johnson (38) - Re-Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Jason Kubel (33)
Ryan Ludwick (36) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
John Mayberry Jr. (31) - Signed w/ NYM (1 year / 1.45M + Incentives)
Nolan Reimold (31) - Signed w/ BAL (Minor League Deal)
Alfonso Soriano (39) - RETIRED
Dayan Viciedo (26) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Eric Young Jr. (30) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)

...................................................................................


Centerfielder


*Colby Rasmus (28): 1 year / 10M AAV - Signed w/ HOU (1 year / 8M Total)
*Chris B. Young (31): 1 year / 5M AAV - Re-Signed w/ NYY (1 year / 2.5M + Incentives)


Other CF'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Roger Bernadina (31) - Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Tony Campana (29) - Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Franklin Gutierrez (32) - Re-Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Tony Gwynn Jr. (32) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Kalish (27)
Justin Maxwell (31) - Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Nyjer Morgan (34) - Signed to Play in Korea w/ Hanwha Eagles (1 year / .7M Total)
Shane Robinson (30) - Signed w/ MIN (Minor League Deal)

...................................................................................


Rightfielder


*Nick Markakis (31): 3 years / 12M AAV - Signed w/ ATL (4 years / 44M Total)
*Torii Hunter (39): 1 year / 14M AAV - Signed w/ MIN (1 year / 10.5M Total)
*Nori Aoki (33): 2 years / 7M AAV - Signed w/ SF (1 year + Team Option / 4.7M + Incentives)
*Alex Rios (34): 1 year / 7M AAV - Signed w/ KC (1 year + Mutual Option / 11M Total)
Ichiro Suzuki (41): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ MIA (1 year / 2M + Incentives)


Other RF'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Bobby Abreu (41) - RETIRED
Brennan Boesch (30) - Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Alex Castellanos (28) - Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Endy Chavez (37) - Re-Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Chris Denorfia (34) - Signed w/ CHC (1 year / 2.6M + Incentives)
Jeff Francoeur (31) - Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Xavier Paul (30) - Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Nate Schierholtz (31) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Casper Wells (30) - Signed w/ DET (Minor League Deal)

...................................................................................


Designated Hitter


*Victor Martinez (35): 4 years / 15M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Re-Signed w/ DET (4 years / 68M Total)
*Billy Butler (29): 2 years / 8M AAV - Signed w/ OAK (3 years / 30M Total)
*Kendrys Morales (31): 1 year / 6M AAV - Signed w/ KC (2 years + Mutual Option / 17M + Incentives)


Other DH's - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Adam Dunn (35) - RETIRED
Jason Giambi (44) - RETIRED
Raul Ibanez (42)
Luke Scott (37)

......................................................................................


Starting Pitcher


*Max Scherzer (30): 7 years / 25M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ WSH (7 years / 210M Total) (NOTE: 50% Deferred)
*Jon Lester (31): 6 years / 22M AAV - Signed w/ CHC (6 years + Vesting Option / 155M Total) (NOTE: w/ Player Opt Out)
*James Shields (33): 5 years / 20M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ SD (4 years + Team Option / 75M Total)
*Ervin Santana (32): 3 years / 15M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ MIN (4 years + Vesting Option / 55M Total)
*Francisco Liriano (31): 3 years / 12M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Re-Signed w/ PIT (3 years / 39M Total)
*Brandon McCarthy (31): 3 years / 12M AAV - Signed w/ LAD (4 years / 48M Total)
*Jason Hammel (32): 3 years / 10M AAV - Signed w/ CHC (2 years + Team Option / 20M Total)
*Jake Peavy (34): 2 years / 13M AAV - Re-Signed w/ SF (2 years / 24M Total)
*Hiroki Kuroda (40): 1 year / 16M AAV - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Hiroshima Toyo Carp (1 year / ?M Total)
*Aaron Harang (37): 2 years / 7M AAV - Signed w/ PHI (1 year / 5M + Incentives)
*Edinson Volquez (30): 2 years / 7M AAV - Signed w/ KC (2 years + Mutual Option / 20M Total)
*Justin Masterson (30): 1 year / 12M AAV - Signed w/ BOS (1 year / 9.5M + Incentives)
*A.J. Burnett (38): 1 year / 10M AAV - Signed w/ PIT (1 year / 8.5M Total)
*Ryan Vogelsong (37): 1 year / 7M AAV - Re-Signed w/ SF (1 year / 4M + Incentives)
*Brett Anderson (27): 1 year / 6M AAV - Signed w/ LAD (1 year / 10M + Incentives)
*Chris Young (36): 1 year / 5M AAV - Signed w/ KC (1 year / .675M + Incentives)
Chad Billingsley (30): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives - Signed w/ PHI (1 year / 1.5M + Incentives) (NOTE: Elbow Surgery 6/26/14)
Gavin Floyd (32): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives - Signed w/ CLE (1 year / 4M + Incentives)
Josh Johnson (31): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives - Re-Signed w/ SD (1 year / 1M + Incentives) (NOTE: Tommy John Surgery 4/24/14)
Brandon Morrow (30): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives - Signed w/ SD (1 year / 2.5M + Incentives)
Chris Capuano (36): 1 year / 4M AAV - Re-Signed w/ NYY (1 year / 5M Total)
Roberto Hernandez (34): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ HOU (Minor League Deal)
Kyle Kendrick (30): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ COL (1 year / 5.5M + Incentives)


Other SP'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Scott Baker (33) - Signed w/ NYY (Minor League Deal)
Brandon Beachy (28) - Signed w/ LAD (1 year + Team Option / 2.75M + Incentives) (NOTE: Tommy John Surgery 3/21/14)
Josh Beckett (35) - RETIRED
Erik Bedard (36) - Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Joe Blanton (34) - Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Scott Carroll (30) - Re-Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Bruce Chen (38) - Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Kevin Correia (34) - Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Dempster (38) - RETIRED
Jeff Francis (34) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Rich Hill (35) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Jair Jurrjens (29) - Re-Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
John Lannan (30) - Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Colby Lewis (35) - Re-Signed w/ TEX (1 year / 4M Total)
Paul Maholm (33) - Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Jason Marquis (36) - Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
James McDonald (30)
Kris Medlen (29) - Signed w/ KC (2 years + Mutual Option / 8.5M Total) (NOTE: Tommy John Surgery 3/18/14)
Brad Mills (29) - Signed w/ OAK (Minor League Deal)
Felipe Paulino (31) - Signed w/ BOS (Minor League Deal)
Brad Penny (37) - Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Wandy Rodriguez (36) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Johan Santana (36) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Joe Saunders (34) - Signed w/ SEA (Minor League Deal)
Kevin Slowey (31) - Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Eric Stults (35) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Randy Wolf (38) - Signed w/ TOR (Minor League Deal)
Barry Zito (37) - Signed w/ OAK (Minor League Deal)

....................................................................................


Right Handed Relief Pitcher


*David Robertson (30): 4 years / 12M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation) - Signed w/ CHW (4 years / 46M Total)
*Francisco Rodriguez (33): 3 years / 7M AAV - Re-Signed w/ MIL (2 years + Team Option / 13M Total)
*Luke Gregerson (31): 3 years / 7M AAV - Signed w/ HOU (3 years / 18.5M + Incentives)
*Rafael Soriano (35): 2 years / 7M AAV
*Sergio Romo (32): 2 years / 7M AAV - Re-Signed w/ SF (2 years / 15M + Incentives)
*Joba Chamberlain (29): 3 years / 4M AAV - Re-Signed w/ DET (1 year / 1M + Incentives)
*Pat Neshek (34): 2 years / 5M AAV - Signed w/ HOU (2 years + Team Option / 12.5M Total)
*Carlos Villanueva (31): 2 years / 4M AAV - Signed w/ STL (Minor League Deal)
*Casey Janssen (33): 1 year / 6M AAV - Signed w/ WSH (1 year + Mutual Option / 5M Total)
*Jason Grilli (38): 1 year / 5M AAV - Signed w/ ATL (2 years + Team Option / 8M Total)
Luke Hochevar (31): 1 year / 4M AAV - Re-Signed w/ KC (2 years + Mutual Option / 10M + Incentives)
John Axford (32): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)


Other RHRP'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


David Aardsma (33) - Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Alfredo Aceves (32) - Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Mike Adams (36) - Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Matt Albers (32) - Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Burke Badenhop (32) - Signed w/ CIN (1 year + Mutual Option / 2.5M + Incentives)
Andrew Bailey (31) - Re-Signed w/ NYY (Minor League Deal)
Anthony Bass (27) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Ronald Belisario (32) - Signed w/ TB (Minor League Deal)
Matt Belisle (34) - Signed w/ STL (1 year / 3.5M + Incentives)
Heath Bell (37) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Rafael Betancourt (40) - Signed w/ COL (Minor League Deal)
Mitchell Boggs (31) - Signed w/ BOS (Minor League Deal)
Blaine Boyer (33) - Signed w/ MIN (Minor League Deal)
Jared Burton (34) - Signed w/ NYY (Minor League Deal)
Matt Capps (31) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Budddy Carlyle (37) - Re-Signed w/ NYM (Minor League Deal)
Todd Coffey (34) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Jesse Crain (34) - Signed w/ CHW (Minor League Deal)
Octavio Dotel (41) - RETIRED
Kyle Farnsworth (39)
Jason Frasor (38) - Re-Signed w/ KC (1 year / 1.8M + Mutual Option)
Ernesto Frieri (29) - Signed w/ TB (1 year / .8M + Incentives)
Kyuji Fujikawa (34) - Signed w/ TEX (1 year + Team Option / 1.1M + Incentives)
Chad Gaudin (32) - Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Jeanmar Gomez (27) - Signed w/ PHI (Minor League Deal)
Kevin Gregg (37) - Signed w/ CIN (Minor League Deal)
Matt Guerrier (36)
J.C. Gutierrez (31) - Re-Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Joel Hanrahan (33) - Re-Signed w/ DET (Minor League Deal)
Jim Johnson (32) - Signed w/ ATL (1 year / 1.6M + Incentives)
Matt Lindstrom (35) - Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Ryan Madson (34) - Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Jeff Manship (30) - Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Nick Masset (33) - Signed w/ MIA (Minor League Deal)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (34) - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (1 year / ?M Total)
Ryan Mattheus (31) - Signed w/ LAA (Minor League Deal)
Dustin McGowan (32) - Signed w/ LAD (1 year / League Minimum + Incentives)
Evan Meek (32) - Signed w/ WSH (Minor League Deal)
Jason Motte (33) - Signed w/ CHC (1 year / 4.5M + Incentives)
Alexi Ogando (31) - Signed w/ BOS (1 year / 1.5M + Incentives)
Ross Ohlendorf (32) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Logan Ondrusek (30) - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Yakult Swallows (1 year + Team Option / 1.2M Total)
Juan Carlos Oviedo (33) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)
Chris Perez (29) - Signed w/ MIL (Minor League Deal)
J.J. Putz (38)
Sergio Santos (31) - Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Tim Stauffer (32) - Signed w/ MIN (1 year / 2.2M Total)
Anthony Swarzak (29) - Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Jose Valverde (37) - Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Jose Veras (34) - Signed w/ ATL (Minor League Deal)
Brayan Villarreal (28) - Signed w/ MIN (Minor League Deal)
Brian Wilson (33)
Blake Wood (31) - Signed w/ PIT (Minor League Deal)
Jamey Wright (40) - Signed w/ TEX (Minor League Deal)

....................................................................................


Left Handed Relief Pitcher


*Andrew Miller (30): 3 years / 7M AAV - Signed w/ NYY (4 years / 36M Total)
Zach Duke (32): 1 year / 5M AAV - Signed w/ CHW (3 years / 15M Total)
Neal Cotts (35): 1 year / 4M AAV - Signed w/ MIL (1 year / 3M Total)


Other LHRP'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:


Joe Beimel (38) - Signed w/ TEX (1 year / 1.5M + Incentives)
Craig Breslow (34) - Re-Signed w/ BOS (1 year / 2M Total)
Sean Burnett (32) - (NOTE: Tommy John Surgery 6/5/14)
Phil Coke (32) - Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Scott Downs (39) - Signed w/ CLE (Minor League Deal)
Scott Elbert (29) - Signed w/ SD (Minor League Deal)
Dana Eveland (31) - Signed w/ BOS (Minor League Deal)
Pedro Feliciano (38) - Signed w/ CHC (Minor League Deal)
Tom Gorzelanny (32) - Signed w/ DET (1 year / 1M + Incentives)
David Huff (30) - Signed w/ LAD (Minor League Deal)
Wade LeBlanc (31) - Signed to Play in Japan w/ Seibu Lions (1 year / ?M Total)
Franklin Morales (29) - Signed w/ KC (Minor League Deal)
Troy Patton (29) - (NOTE: Must Serve 80 Game Suspension for Amphetamines)
Josh Outman (30) - Signed w/ ATL (1 year / .925M + Incentives)
Clay Rapada (34) - Signed w/ SF (Minor League Deal)
Joe Thatcher (33) - Signed w/ HOU (Minor League Deal)
Jonny Venters (30) - Signed w/ TB (2 years / Minor League Deal) (NOTE: Tommy John Surgery 9/17/14)
Wesley Wright (30) - Signed w/ BAL (1 year / 1.7M Total)

....................................................................................


*Indicates Top 50 Free Agent
redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/15376/kinsms-top-50-free-agents

[kinsm]

Listed above are the ~150 Article XX-B Players who have filed for Free Agency.

Over the last 72 hours a large number of Article XX-D players have been outrighted off 40 man rosters - the vast majority of these players will file as six year minor league free agents tomorrow. I will add all of the ones who I think could have a major league impact next year - but I don't see any of them signing for the 4M AAV threshold I set for my projections - so I'm speculating right now that they'll all be added in as "others".



--I'll use this thread to list all of the free agent signings just as I did in last year's thread.

[psuhistory]

Looks great, Kinsm, your predictions are usually pretty close. In any event, I'm glad it won't be the Reds giving Martin five years, and I hope they don't give Rasmus his $10m either. We've already passed the hat for Jock's fraternity buddies...

[kinsm]

Nov 3, 2014 20:06:22 GMT -5 psuhistory said:

Looks great, Kinsm, your predictions are usually pretty close. In any event, I'm glad it won't be the Reds giving Martin five years, and I hope they don't give Rasmus his $10m either. We've already passed the hat for Jock's fraternity buddies...

A lot of pundits are speculating that Rasmus is going to get a multi year deal. I don't see it. I think he's going to be overpaid on a one year pillow contract to attempt and rebuild his value, if he plays well (motivated) he could get a much larger deal next winter.

A number of players are in the same boat as he is, Masterson and Brett Anderson for example.

I agree - I hope Jocketty doesn't even contact his agent (unless it pertains to another client).

[psuhistory]

Nov 3, 2014 20:15:42 GMT -5 kinsm said:

Nov 3, 2014 20:06:22 GMT -5 psuhistory said:

Looks great, Kinsm, your predictions are usually pretty close. In any event, I'm glad it won't be the Reds giving Martin five years, and I hope they don't give Rasmus his $10m either. We've already passed the hat for Jock's fraternity buddies...

A lot of pundits are speculating that Rasmus is going to get a multi year deal. I don't see it. I think he's going to be overpaid on a one year pillow contract to attempt and rebuild his value, if he plays well (motivated) he could get a much larger deal next winter.

A number of players are in the same boat as he is, Masterson and Brett Anderson for example.

I agree - I hope Jocketty doesn't even contact his agent (unless it pertains to another client).

18 of Rasmus's 78 hits were home runs (33% k rate): now that's getting on towards Wilymotown. I kind of like him for not getting along with LaRussa, but more in a cheap date way, like Jock's smoker/bench money...

[Lark11]

Nov 3, 2014 19:37:16 GMT -5 kinsm said:

---It's that time of the year again, below you'll find the 5th Annual installment of my OffSeason contract predictions. I haven't included any international free agents. If you disagree with any of my predictions - please don't hesitate to let me know.

Teams have the opportunity to make qualifying offers of $15.3 M to their free agents 5pm eastern time today, assuming the player was with the team the entire season. If offered, players must decide whether to accept by November 13th at 5pm eastern time.

Draft compensation could change how some teams value certain free agents but I will not change any of these predictions (with the exception of adding nontenders who I will add when the time is appropriate).

I will continually update this list with who has signed and for what amount, so that everyone can be up to date with who is available and judge me on how well my predictions are fairing. Just as I have the past four OffSeason’s. Link to last year's for reference: redlegsbaseball.proboards.com/thread/13619/season-free-agent-contract-predictions

ESPN, YAHOO, CBSSPORTS, and others will put out similar predictions shortly.





Player (Age) - Contract Prediction

..................................................................................



Catcher



*Russell Martin (32): 5 years / 13M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

A.J. Pierzynski (38): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other C'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



J.P. Arencibia (29)

John Buck (34)

Ryan Doumit (34)

Nick Hundley (31)

Gerald Laird (35)

Wil Nieves (36)

Humberto Quintero (35)

David Ross (38)

Geovany Soto (32)

.................................................................................



Firstbaseman



*Adam LaRoche (35): 2 years / 12M AAV

*Michael Cuddyer (36): 2 years / 9M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)



Other 1Bman - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Daric Barton (29)

Mike Carp (29)

Corey Hart (33)

Paul Konerko (39) - RETIRED

Lyle Overbay (38)

Carlos Pena (37)

Mark Reynolds (32)

....................................................................................



Secondbaseman



*Rickie Weeks (32): 1 year / 7M AAV

*Emilio Bonifacio (30): 2 years / 4M AAV



Other 2Bman - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Mark Ellis (38)

Brandon Hicks (29)

Kelly Johnson (33)

Brian Roberts (37) - RETIRED

Josh Wilson (34)

...................................................................................



Shortstop



*Hanley Ramirez (31): 6 years / 20M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Asdrubal Cabrera (29): 3 years / 12M AAV

*Jed Lowrie (31): 3 years / 9M AAV

*Stephen Drew (32): 1 year / 5M AAV



Other SS's - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Clint Barmes (36)

Rafael Furcal (37)

Derek Jeter (41) - RETIRED

John McDonald (40)

Hiroyuki Nakajima (32)

Ramon Santiago (35)

....................................................................................



Thirdbaseman



*Pablo Sandoval (28): 6 years / 17M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Chase Headley (31): 4 years / 12M AAV

Alberto Callaspo (32): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other 3Bman - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Eric Chavez (37) - RETIRED

Jack Hannahan (35)

Donnie Murphy (32)

Chris Nelson (29)

Kevin Youkilis (36) - RETIRED

....................................................................................



Leftfielder



*Melky Cabrera (30): 5 years / 14M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Nelson Cruz (34): 4 years / 14M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Mike Morse (33): 3 years / 9M AAV

*Josh Willingham (36): 1 year / 5M AAV

Delmon Young (29): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other LF'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Tyler Colvin (29)

Cole Gillespie (30)

Jonny Gomes (34)

Tony Gwynn Jr. (32)

Scott Hairston (35)

Reed Johnson (38)

Jason Kubel (33)

Ryan Ludwick (36)

Alfonso Soriano (39)

...................................................................................



Centerfielder



*Colby Rasmus (28): 1 year / 10M AAV

*Chris B. Young (31): 1 year / 5M AAV



Other CF'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Franklin Gutierrez (32)

Nyjer Morgan (34)

...................................................................................



Rightfielder



*Nick Markakis (31): 3 years / 12M AAV

*Torii Hunter (39): 1 year / 14M AAV

*Nori Aoki (33): 2 years / 7M AAV

*Alex Rios (34): 1 year / 7M AAV

Ichiro Suzuki (41): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other RF'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Bobby Abreu (41) - RETIRED

Endy Chavez (37)

Chris Denorfia (34)

Nate Schierholtz (31)

...................................................................................



Designated Hitter



*Victor Martinez (35): 4 years / 15M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Billy Butler (29): 2 years / 8M AAV

*Kendrys Morales (31): 1 year / 6M AAV



Other DH's - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Adam Dunn (35)

Jason Giambi (44)

Raul Ibanez (42)

......................................................................................



Starting Pitcher



*Max Scherzer (30): 7 years / 25M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Jon Lester (31): 6 years / 22M AAV

*James Shields (33): 5 years / 20M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Ervin Santana (32): 3 years / 15M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Francisco Liriano (31): 3 years / 12M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Brandon McCarthy (31): 3 years / 12M AAV

*Jason Hammel (32): 3 years / 10M AAV

*Jake Peavy (34): 2 years / 13M AAV

*Hiroki Kuroda (40): 1 year / 16M AAV

*Aaron Harang (37): 2 years / 7M AAV

*Edinson Volquez (30): 2 years / 7M AAV

*Justin Masterson (30): 1 year / 12M AAV

*A.J. Burnett (38): 1 year / 10M AAV

*Ryan Vogelsong (37): 1 year / 7M AAV

*Brett Anderson (27): 1 year / 6M AAV

*Chris Young (36): 1 year / 5M AAV

Chad Billingsley (30): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives

Gavin Floyd (32): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives

Josh Johnson (31): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives

Brandon Morrow (30): 1 year / 4M AAV + Incentives

Chris Capuano (36): 1 year / 4M AAV

Roberto Hernandez (34): 1 year / 4M AAV

Kyle Kendrick (30): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other SP'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Scott Baker (33)

Josh Beckett (35) - RETIRED

Bruce Chen (38)

Kevin Correia (34)

Ryan Dempster (38) - RETIRED

Rich Hill (35)

Colby Lewis (35)

Paul Maholm (33)

Brad Mills (29)

Felipe Paulino (31)

Brad Penny (37)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Johan Santana (36)

Joe Saunders (34)

Kevin Slowey (31)

Randy Wolf (38)

....................................................................................



Right Handed Relief Pitcher



*David Robertson (30): 4 years / 12M AAV (TIED to Draft Compensation)

*Francisco Rodriguez (33): 3 years / 7M AAV

*Luke Gregerson (31): 3 years / 7M AAV

*Rafael Soriano (35): 2 years / 7M AAV

*Sergio Romo (32): 2 years / 7M AAV

*Joba Chamberlain (29): 3 years / 4M AAV

*Pat Neshek (34): 2 years / 5M AAV

*Carlos Villanueva (31): 2 years / 4M AAV

*Casey Janssen (33): 1 year / 6M AAV

*Jason Grilli (38): 1 year / 5M AAV

Luke Hochevar (31): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other RHRP'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Mike Adams (36)

Matt Albers (32)

Burke Badenhop (32)

Andrew Bailey (31)

Matt Belisle (34)

Heath Bell (37)

Jared Burton (34)

Jesse Crain (34)

Kyle Farnsworth (39)

Jason Frasor (38)

Kyuji Fujikawa (34)

Kevin Gregg (37)

Matt Guerrier (36)

Joel Hanrahan (33)

Jim Johnson (32)

Matt Lindstrom (35)

Jeff Manship (30)

Nick Masset (33)

Daisuke Matsuzaka (34)

Dustin McGowan (32)

Jason Motte (33)

Juan Carlos Oviedo (33)

Chris Perez (29)

J.J. Putz (38)

Sergio Santos (31)

Kevin Slowey (31)

Tim Stauffer (32)

Jose Veras (34)

Jamey Wright (40)

....................................................................................



Left Handed Relief Pitcher



*Andrew Miller (30): 3 years / 7M AAV

Zach Duke (32): 1 year / 5M AAV

Neal Cotts (35): 1 year / 4M AAV



Other LHRP'ers - Less than 4M AAV, Minor League Deals, Retirement:



Joe Beimel (38)

Craig Breslow (34)

Sean Burnett (32)

Phil Coke (32)

Scott Downs (39)

Tom Gorzelanny (32)

Franklin Morales (29)

Josh Outman (30)

Joe Thatcher (33)

....................................................................................





*Indicates Top 50 Free Agent

Good stuff, some first impressions:



James Shields -- Is he really going to get $20M AAV? Really? Maybe. Well, probably. Salaries ARE spiraling upward, but that still feels too high to me. A 33-year old with declining stuff and a lackluster postseason performance. He's durable, but he's had to evolve away from his worsening changeup to more of a cutter-heavy pitcher. I wouldn't value him that highly, but I suppose the market could/will.


Nelson Cruz -- He clubbed 40 homers last year in a depressed offensive environment. Power is scarce, so $14M AAV feels low to me, even if he is 34 years old and packs an IPED history.


Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie -- I'm not sure if Asdrubal is too high or Lowrie is too low, but those two seem too similar to be separated by $3M in AAV. Given the choice, I'd rather have Jed, but maybe that's just me.


Victor Martinez -- I know he's old, but he's a freak, so $15M AAV feels really light. Add in the context of a depressed offensive environment and his 2014 season is even more impressive. He was 2nd to McCutchen with a .409 OBP, had a ridiculous 42/70 K/BB ratio, and clubbed 32 homers. Lots of reasons for him to get paid.


Billy Butler -- I think the postseason juices his value a titch, so $8M AAV feels a bit light.


Andrew Miller -- He had a truly ridiculous 2014 season and he should cash in on it in a major way this offseason. A southpaw providing 60+ IP, 14.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 2.02 ERA. If he only gets a $7M AAV, then I'd want the Reds to get in on that. Also, a postseason that highlighted the growing importance of high leverage relievers will only help his case.


Brett Anderson -- At 26 with good stuff when healthy, I think he does better than 1 year and better than $6M. He's an interesting gamble and I could see a team (Houston?) on the upswing with money to spend rolling the dice on him, spending what it takes (in money and years) to lock him up.

[kinsm]

Nov 3, 2014 20:38:52 GMT -5 psuhistory said:

Nov 3, 2014 20:15:42 GMT -5 kinsm said:

A lot of pundits are speculating that Rasmus is going to get a multi year deal. I don't see it. I think he's going to be overpaid on a one year pillow contract to attempt and rebuild his value, if he plays well (motivated) he could get a much larger deal next winter.

A number of players are in the same boat as he is, Masterson and Brett Anderson for example.

I agree - I hope Jocketty doesn't even contact his agent (unless it pertains to another client).

18 of Rasmus's 78 hits were home runs (33% k rate): now that's getting on towards Wilymotown. I kind of like him for not getting along with LaRussa, but more in a cheap date way, like Jock's smoker/bench money...

I should probably add Wily Mo on here, he is seeking a guaranteed mlb contract after hitting 31 homers in 137 games this past season in Japan.

[crashdavissports]

It would be nice to sign Michael Cuddyer to that 2 years / 18 million dollars (9/yr/AVG) and convert him over to LF where he used to play with Minnesota to fill in as a stop gap for Winker.

Then hope Votto stays healthy and has a good year, Bruce bounces back from his horrid year, and our pitching staff stays healthy for one more legit run at a title.

CF Hamilton
LF Cuddyer
1B Votto
3B Frasier
CA Mesoraco
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Cozart

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Bailey
SP Leake
SP Cingrani

That is how I would setup the lineup and starting rotation for one more year. Then next year we lose Cueto and Leake, after resigning Latos to a more friendly injury deal.

[Lark11]

Nov 5, 2014 10:00:11 GMT -5 crashdavissports said:

It would be nice to sign Michael Cuddyer to that 2 years / 18 million dollars (9/yr/AVG) and convert him over to LF where he used to play with Minnesota to fill in as a stop gap for Winker.

Then hope Votto stays healthy and has a good year, Bruce bounces back from his horrid year, and our pitching staff stays healthy for one more legit run at a title.

CF Hamilton
LF Cuddyer
1B Votto
3B Frasier
CA Mesoraco
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Cozart

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Bailey
SP Leake
SP Cingrani

That is how I would setup the lineup and starting rotation for one more year. Then next year we lose Cueto and Leake, after resigning Latos to a more friendly injury deal.

You'd cough up a draft pick to sign Cuddyer?

[crashdavissports]

Nov 5, 2014 11:34:34 GMT -5 Lark11 said:

Nov 5, 2014 10:00:11 GMT -5 crashdavissports said:

It would be nice to sign Michael Cuddyer to that 2 years / 18 million dollars (9/yr/AVG) and convert him over to LF where he used to play with Minnesota to fill in as a stop gap for Winker.

Then hope Votto stays healthy and has a good year, Bruce bounces back from his horrid year, and our pitching staff stays healthy for one more legit run at a title.

CF Hamilton
LF Cuddyer
1B Votto
3B Frasier
CA Mesoraco
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Cozart

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Bailey
SP Leake
SP Cingrani

That is how I would setup the lineup and starting rotation for one more year. Then next year we lose Cueto and Leake, after resigning Latos to a more friendly injury deal.

You'd cough up a draft pick to sign Cuddyer?

A or B compensation? We need another professional hitter that is going to bridge the gap between Winker getting promoted. Cuddyer is also a leader and a hell of a hitter which would put someone in front of Votto that can get on base and move runners over. This is basically a one year shot at the title before we have to start going on a fire sale. So yes, I would lose a draft pick, especially since our 1st round pick is protected right now at #11.

[kinsm]

I don't see any way on earth Cuddyer declines a 15M 1 year deal for an 18M 2 year deal. That means he has to think he'll be so bad next year that he can't get a 1 year 3M deal.


And there is no way on earth I'd give up a top 50 draft pick for him.

[crashdavissports]

Nov 5, 2014 19:29:04 GMT -5 kinsm said:

I don't see any way on earth Cuddyer declines a 15M 1 year deal for an 18M 2 year deal. That means he has to think he'll be so bad next year that he can't get a 1 year 3M deal.

And there is no way on earth I'd give up a top 50 draft pick for him.

I was going based off the FA contract predictions set forth in this thread.

We have one single year to make a run at the World Series, next year. We are all in right now, or we wait to rebuild this mess in 5 years with these players becoming FA's.

[kinsm]

Nov 5, 2014 20:20:46 GMT -5 crashdavissports said:

Nov 5, 2014 19:29:04 GMT -5 kinsm said:

I don't see any way on earth Cuddyer declines a 15M 1 year deal for an 18M 2 year deal. That means he has to think he'll be so bad next year that he can't get a 1 year 3M deal.

And there is no way on earth I'd give up a top 50 draft pick for him.

I was going based off the FA contract predictions set forth in this thread.

We have one single year to make a run at the World Series, next year. We are all in right now, or we wait to rebuild this mess in 5 years with these players becoming FA's.

That's what I pegged his FA value at prior to the QO. Since he was tagged I don't see any chance (like 1%) he declines it.

If we are going to risk a draft pick - just throw everything at the fan - sign Sandoval to man LF (he's only 28).

[crashdavissports]

Nov 6, 2014 4:25:46 GMT -5 kinsm said:

Nov 5, 2014 20:20:46 GMT -5 crashdavissports said:

I was going based off the FA contract predictions set forth in this thread.

We have one single year to make a run at the World Series, next year. We are all in right now, or we wait to rebuild this mess in 5 years with these players becoming FA's.

That's what I pegged his FA value at prior to the QO. Since he was tagged I don't see any chance (like 1%) he declines it.

If we are going to risk a draft pick - just throw everything at the fan - sign Sandoval to man LF (he's only 28).

Would Sandoval even be able to move well enough in LF to make him worthwhile defensively?

I would not mind Sandoval, even if it was to make the damn Giants weaker. Sick and tired of them and the Cardinals.

[Lark11]

Nov 6, 2014 9:25:08 GMT -5 crashdavissports said:

Nov 6, 2014 4:25:46 GMT -5 kinsm said:

That's what I pegged his FA value at prior to the QO. Since he was tagged I don't see any chance (like 1%) he declines it.

If we are going to risk a draft pick - just throw everything at the fan - sign Sandoval to man LF (he's only 28).

Would Sandoval even be able to move well enough in LF to make him worthwhile defensively?

I would not mind Sandoval, even if it was to make the damn Giants weaker. Sick and tired of them and the Cardinals.

Obviously, we aren't getting Pablo, but if we did, then we'd be a 100 times better off shifting Frazier to left and letting Pablo man third base.