Post by walstib on Sept 18, 2014 16:31:21 GMT -5
Buster Olney, ESPN, 9/18/14...
The Cincinnati Reds will finish this season with a losing record, but their 2014 struggles may well take them beyond that bit of ignominy. It's possible they will finish last in the National League Central, and they have a chance to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball (which would mean their first-round pick in the 2015 MLB draft would be protected from the compensation drain).
They have developed significant needs and are facing a major overhaul that will be problematic in the face of rising payroll concerns, which they began to address when they allowed the Brewers to take reliever Jonathan Broxton last month. Broxton will make $9 million next season, and the Reds need as much financial flexibility as possible.
Their situation is so acute that the Reds should at least think about a bold, aggressive move to improve the team's overall talent and gain better payroll footing: They should trade Cy Young Award candidate Johnny Cueto.
Some rival officials just don't see the Reds making this move, because generally speaking, owner Bob Castellini has never been a big believer in deferred gratification. He has a win-now personality, and the best chance for the Reds to win now is to keep Cueto, the 28-year-old right-hander who is having the best season of his career (2.33 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 227 2/3 innings).
But from a macro point of view, swapping Cueto could give the organization much better standing for 2016 and beyond.
Here's why: This year, the Reds had a record payroll of about $115 million, about $30 million more than they spent two seasons ago. They are presumably bumping up against something of a payroll ceiling, but they have big-time obligations coming due. Joey Votto has a deal that runs through the 2023 season, with an option for 2024, and after he makes $14 million next season, his salary will climb to $20 million for 2016. Brandon Phillips is owed $36 million for the next three seasons, which is part of the reason the Reds tried to move him last fall. Homer Bailey will make $10 million next year, then $18 million in 2016, with his salary increasing even more thereafter. Jay Bruce's salary will rise from $10 million to $12 million in 2015. Mike Leake and Mat Latos are each entering their final years of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency next fall. Aroldis Chapman could be eligible for free agency next year as well.
In short: The Reds will be getting squeezed for salary from all parts of their roster in the next two seasons.
Cueto has a $10 million option for 2015, a no-brainer for the Reds to exercise. But he could become a free agent after next season, and unless the Reds -- with their lower-middle class payroll -- are willing to pay him something in the Matt Cain and Cole Hamels neighborhood of $110 million to $145 million, he'll probably be pitching for another team in 2016. Keeping him would require the Reds to commit about $45 million a year to just two players, Cueto and Votto, well into the future.
There is another option: Move Cueto this winter, for the good of the future.
Cueto's dominance, coupled with his modest salary, gives him enormous value right now, and he might look even more attractive this winter, when teams must try to pick through a top-heavy free-agent market that will include the very pricey Max Scherzer (who turned down $144 million in the spring), Jon Lester (who passed up the chance to talk about a $110 million deal in midseason with Boston) and James Shields, who may well be targeted by Boston and other teams as the best "A-minus" pitcher on the market.
Cueto would be a less costly alternative for interested teams, just as David Price was before the trade deadline. Teams that might be looking to improve next year without having to commit to a major long-term deal -- the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, etc. -- could look at Cueto as a way to upgrade without committing huge dollars down the road. At the very least, they could keep Cueto for a year, win with him, and then get a draft pick if he walked away at the end of 2015.
The flexibility attached to Cueto would enhance his trade value. The Reds could try to get something close to the package that the Rays got for Price in return, or they could attempt to use Cueto's value to create payroll flexibility in the way that Boston did in its mega-trade with the Dodgers in 2012. The Reds could tell interested teams: "Sure, we'll talk about trading Cueto … if you're willing to take Phillips, too."
Not only would the Reds get some prospect help in return, but they also would carve out a lot more room in their payroll for other moves, room that they need.
If they just ride it out with Cueto and keep him in 2015, the Reds probably would win more games next season. But their financial squeeze would remain in place, and they will continue to be greatly limited in what they can do.
It would be an outside-the-box type of move, a very Tampa Bay Rays type of move. But given all the factors in place, it's something the Reds should at least explore.
More from Cincy: Maybe the Reds should just finish last, writes Hal McCoy.
Getting Votto and Latos back will send a message, says manager Bryan Price. … Billy Hamilton is struggling, but not fatigued, writes John Fay.
The Cincinnati Reds will finish this season with a losing record, but their 2014 struggles may well take them beyond that bit of ignominy. It's possible they will finish last in the National League Central, and they have a chance to finish with one of the 10 worst records in baseball (which would mean their first-round pick in the 2015 MLB draft would be protected from the compensation drain).
They have developed significant needs and are facing a major overhaul that will be problematic in the face of rising payroll concerns, which they began to address when they allowed the Brewers to take reliever Jonathan Broxton last month. Broxton will make $9 million next season, and the Reds need as much financial flexibility as possible.
Their situation is so acute that the Reds should at least think about a bold, aggressive move to improve the team's overall talent and gain better payroll footing: They should trade Cy Young Award candidate Johnny Cueto.
Some rival officials just don't see the Reds making this move, because generally speaking, owner Bob Castellini has never been a big believer in deferred gratification. He has a win-now personality, and the best chance for the Reds to win now is to keep Cueto, the 28-year-old right-hander who is having the best season of his career (2.33 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 227 2/3 innings).
But from a macro point of view, swapping Cueto could give the organization much better standing for 2016 and beyond.
Here's why: This year, the Reds had a record payroll of about $115 million, about $30 million more than they spent two seasons ago. They are presumably bumping up against something of a payroll ceiling, but they have big-time obligations coming due. Joey Votto has a deal that runs through the 2023 season, with an option for 2024, and after he makes $14 million next season, his salary will climb to $20 million for 2016. Brandon Phillips is owed $36 million for the next three seasons, which is part of the reason the Reds tried to move him last fall. Homer Bailey will make $10 million next year, then $18 million in 2016, with his salary increasing even more thereafter. Jay Bruce's salary will rise from $10 million to $12 million in 2015. Mike Leake and Mat Latos are each entering their final years of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency next fall. Aroldis Chapman could be eligible for free agency next year as well.
In short: The Reds will be getting squeezed for salary from all parts of their roster in the next two seasons.
Cueto has a $10 million option for 2015, a no-brainer for the Reds to exercise. But he could become a free agent after next season, and unless the Reds -- with their lower-middle class payroll -- are willing to pay him something in the Matt Cain and Cole Hamels neighborhood of $110 million to $145 million, he'll probably be pitching for another team in 2016. Keeping him would require the Reds to commit about $45 million a year to just two players, Cueto and Votto, well into the future.
There is another option: Move Cueto this winter, for the good of the future.
Cueto's dominance, coupled with his modest salary, gives him enormous value right now, and he might look even more attractive this winter, when teams must try to pick through a top-heavy free-agent market that will include the very pricey Max Scherzer (who turned down $144 million in the spring), Jon Lester (who passed up the chance to talk about a $110 million deal in midseason with Boston) and James Shields, who may well be targeted by Boston and other teams as the best "A-minus" pitcher on the market.
Cueto would be a less costly alternative for interested teams, just as David Price was before the trade deadline. Teams that might be looking to improve next year without having to commit to a major long-term deal -- the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, etc. -- could look at Cueto as a way to upgrade without committing huge dollars down the road. At the very least, they could keep Cueto for a year, win with him, and then get a draft pick if he walked away at the end of 2015.
The flexibility attached to Cueto would enhance his trade value. The Reds could try to get something close to the package that the Rays got for Price in return, or they could attempt to use Cueto's value to create payroll flexibility in the way that Boston did in its mega-trade with the Dodgers in 2012. The Reds could tell interested teams: "Sure, we'll talk about trading Cueto … if you're willing to take Phillips, too."
Not only would the Reds get some prospect help in return, but they also would carve out a lot more room in their payroll for other moves, room that they need.
If they just ride it out with Cueto and keep him in 2015, the Reds probably would win more games next season. But their financial squeeze would remain in place, and they will continue to be greatly limited in what they can do.
It would be an outside-the-box type of move, a very Tampa Bay Rays type of move. But given all the factors in place, it's something the Reds should at least explore.
More from Cincy: Maybe the Reds should just finish last, writes Hal McCoy.
Getting Votto and Latos back will send a message, says manager Bryan Price. … Billy Hamilton is struggling, but not fatigued, writes John Fay.
